It’s them or us – a look at the Premier League relegation battle

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How soon optimism can dissipate. A momentous 3-0 win at Reading had given Wigan Athletic a real boost and lifted them out of the relegation zone, albeit on goal difference. Then came that painful 4-0 home loss to Liverpool, a horror movie in the making. Can Wigan Athletic pick themselves up, repair their wounded morale and get back into the fray?

The next game for Wigan is one that no realist would expect them to win. The FA Cup 6th round tie at Everton is likely to be largely attended by Latics’ second string. The cup competitions have been the saving grace for Wigan this season, with heartening performances that have helped lift morale within the club. However, Roberto Martinez would be unwise to risk senior players for an FA Cup tie, given Wigan’s precarious league position. If Everton put out their strongest lineup the scoreline could prove scary. The prospect of two consecutive really bad results looms.

That kind of scenario could pose a real challenge for morale within the club, but history shows that Wigan Athletic are resilient. Even after the most disturbing of horrow shows they have shown the soldier’s ability in not looking back.

It’s tight this year. With 10 games to go it is possible for both Sunderland and Newcastle to get sucked into the relegation battle. Both lie 6 points above the relegation zone. However, Sunderland do have some quality and an experienced and capable manager in Martin O’Neill. Newcastle have even more quality players, including transfer window signings and it is unlikely they will get relegated. Norwich above them do not have as much quality, but they are two points ahead of the north east clubs. It would take a calamitous fall for the Canaries to be dragged into the mire.

We are therefore looking at the teams currently in the bottom five – a mini-league between QPR, Reading, Aston Villa, Wigan and Southampton, with the top two surviving.

Let’s take a look at the opposition for Wigan:

Queens Park Rangers won only their third game of the season last weekend, dragging Southampton back into the danger zone. Despite having quality players they have been woeful this season. However, with that kind of quality and a manager as seasoned as Harry Redknapp, don’t count them out. They were lucky to survive last season and fortune could smile on them again. They have yet to play 3 games against the bottom five five teams and 2 against the top five.

Reading looked poor and low on quality against Wigan, but what they lack in class is compensated by their workrate and determination. That spirit has helped them produce last ditch rescues in matches where they have looked down and out. They play 3 games against bottom five and 3 against the top five.

Aston Villa have gambled on youth and their inexperienced defence is very vulnerable. However, senior players such as Charles N’Zogbia and Gabriel Agbonlahor, together with the exciting young striker Christian Benteke pose an attacking threat. They play 3 games against bottom five and 2 against the top five. Their next two games are against QPR and Reading and failure to win at least one of those will put them under great pressure.

Southampton’s bubble is now starting to burst. They had been punching above their weight in lifting themselves out of the relegation zone. A positive, attacking team with a great disciplinary record they don’t deserve to go down. A lot will depend on their resilience. They play only one game against the bottom five and 2 against the top five.

Up to this point results between the “mini-leaguers” put Wigan in front:

1. Wigan Athletic – Home W1 D2 L0 Away W3 D0 L0 – 14 points (from 6 matches)
2. Southampton – Home W1 D2 L0 Away W2 D1 L0 – 13 points (from 7 matches)
3. QPR – Home W0 D2 L1 Away W1 D1 L0 – 6 points (from 5 matches)
4. Aston Villa – Home W1 D0 L2 Away W0 D1 L1 – 4 points (from 5 matches)
5. Reading – Home W0 D0 L1 Away W0 D1 L3 – 1 point (from 5 matches)

Much is going to depend on results in games played between the bottom five. Bad results in two or more of these matches could prove fatal for any of those teams, barring Southampton who only have one remaining, at Reading. The Royals also have home games left against QPR and Aston Villa.

Wigan Athletic have been in this position before and showed the resilience and mental strength to get out of it. Last year’s miraculous type of recovery is unlikely to happen again. It will be more a matter of grinding out results and keeping their heads above water. Wigan will face 2 games against the bottom five and 3 against the top five, a difficult run-in.

Latics fans will hope that survival will still remain a possibility when they face Aston Villa in their final match of the season at the DW Stadium. It would not be the first time that they reached salvation on the final day.

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Wigan Athletic 0 Liverpool 4 – A Throwback to the Bad Old Days

A throwback to the bad old days. A first goal after two minutes and both Wigan’s tactical plan and their self confidence fell apart.

Roberto Martinez had decided to stick with his tactical switch of reverting to a back four, with Jean Beausejour pushed forward on the left wing. It had been successful at Reading, but Liverpool reveled in the space it gave them to attack.The result was an exposed defence.

Liverpool went into half time 3-0 up. Countinho had too easily beaten Boyce to put in a centre for Downing’s second minute goal. The Wigan defence was out of its depth when the same player put the electric Suarez through for Liverpool’s second. A lucky deflection gave Suarez his second from a free kick.

Early in the second half Glen Johnson was able to waltz past Wigan tackers to put Suarez through to finish with a shot through Al Habsi’s legs.

The Good

Liverpool goalkeeper Pepe Reina made three excellent saves in the first half, and one early in the second, when Wigan were unlucky not to score.

The Bad

Luis Suarez was given the freedom of the park. Wigan just did not seem to have a plan to deal with him. One thing Wigan have had this season has been a viable tactical plan, even if results have not often gone their way. The tactics in this match were woefully lacking. The team looked disorganized and demoralized.

The first half spat between Emmerson Boyce and James McArthur led to them both being spoken to by the referee,  a really sad thing for Wigan supporters to see.

Player Ratings

Ali Al-Habsi: 4- There was talk some months ago about him going to Liverpool to replace Pepe Reina. One doubts that the Reds would be interested after his run of indifferent form since then.

Emmerson Boyce: 3 – Poor.

Paul Scharner: 4 – Once again showed good technique, but too often went forward, leaving the defence exposed.

Gary Caldwell: 4 – Poor. Substituted after 52 minutes.

Maynor Figueroa: 4 – Looked isolated and cut off.

Jean Beausejour: 3 – More effective in the more withdrawn role of wing back. Substituted after 61 minutes.

James McCarthy: 3 – Poor.

James McArthur: 3 – Poor.

Shaun Maloney: 4 – Systematically fouled by Lucas, particularly in the first half.

Arouna Kone: 4 – What would have happened if he could have converted the chance he had in the first minute of the match?

Franco Di Santo: 4 – At last he has  produced a header of note, with a fine effort early in the second half saved by Reina. Substituted after 52 minutes.

Substitutes:

Roger Espinoza: 5 – Added more energy to midfield after coming onafter 52 minutes.

Antolin Alcaraz: 4 -Came after 52 minutes when the defence looked really exposed.

Callum McManaman: 5 – Looked useful when he had the ball. Came in for Beausejour with around 30 minutes to go.

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Wigan Athletic v Liverpool Preview

A year ago, in this same  month of March, a win against Liverpool proved to be a major turning point for Wigan Athletic’s fortunes. The 2-1 surprise result at Anfield was the catalyst that helped kick-start Wigan’s season and to ultimately retain their Premier League status. Can Latics once again raise their game and beat Liverpool in today’s encounter at the DW Stadium?

There was a time when the visit of Liverpool would bring trepidation to the hearts of Wigan Athletic supporters. In fact, during their first four years in the Premier League Wigan lost all of  their home games against the Reds.  However, since then the tide has turned and Wigan have had an unbeaten home run against them in the past four years, albeit with a single 1-0 victory in 2009-2010 through Hugo Rodallega’s volley.

Wigan come into this fixture on the back of an inspiring 3-0 at relegation rivals, Reading. However, their home record this season has been poor, winning only two league games at the DW Stadium up to this point. If they are to stay afloat in the Premier League for another season it is vital that the home record improve. There is some doubt about Maynor Figueroa’s fitness, following the nasty challenge on his ankle  by Pavel Podrgebnyak last week. Antolin Alcaraz is ready to step into the centre of defence if the Honduran does not make it. Otherwise the lineup is likely to be the one that faced Reading last Saturday.

Times have changed since the teams met at Anfield in November. Brendan Rodgers had brought in younger players to revitalize his team and to galvanise  his senior professionals into action. His strategy has largely worked – exit from the Europa League apart – and the ‘old guard’ has responded . Liverpool have steadily climbed up the table and now sit in 8th place. They  have drawn  6 out of 13 away games, as much as any team. Despite their ups and downs over recent years they still have the kind of quality players that are staffed by a wage bill around three times that of Wigan. Steven Gerrard has proved  a thorn in the side so often for Wigan and the home team’s defence will have to find  a way to cope with the spectacular Luis Suarez.

The statistics suggest a draw as a possible  outcome, although the bookmakers’  odds  favour Liverpool. However, Liverpool must have learned from past experience that there is no way that Wigan can be written off. Providing they play at their highest level, a win for the home side remains a distinct possibility.

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Reading vs. Wigan Athletic: It’s us or them

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While it would be a bit extreme to label Saturday’s fixture against Reading a must-win, it is surely a must-not-lose. Neither scenario is arithmetically true, but if you take a good look at the surrounding teams in the league table — Reading simply has to be one of the three to go down if Wigan are to stay up. It’s a six-pointer, with even greater significance than the points lost or gained. Latics’ victory at Bolton this time last year not only kick-started their fantastic run of form, but sent Bolton spiraling towards the Championship.

So, no pressure then.

Recent loss at Tottenham aside, Reading find themselves in a rich vein of form — sixth in the Premier League form table after victories over Sunderland, Newcastle, West Brom and a creditable draw against Chelsea. Brian McDermott and super-sub Adam Le Fondre were named Premier League Manager and Player of the Month respectively, and spirits must be running high. They have developed a reputation for heroic comebacks and last-minute goals, both testament to their team spirit and fitness levels. It also speaks volumes of their home support. But you get the sense that they have been a bit lucky even if they’ve made that luck themselves through sheer desire — their goals tend to be scrappy. This is a team Wigan should be able to beat but as ever, it will depend on the defensive performance. If they can manage a win, Reading could slump back into 19th place, a cruelly deflating blow after their recent heroics.

From the Wigan perspective, Roberto Martinez’s decision to play a mixed team in the FA Cup instead of his customary second string approach means his team goes into the match with some positive momentum. Arouna Koné’s brace against Huddersfield should give him a shot of confidence, as will James McArthur’s cracker. The Scot has shown since the turn of the year that he can be a real attacking threat, a very positive revelation. Franco Di Santo was rested against Huddersfield but could return, while man of the match Callum McManaman continues to push for a start but may have to settle for a role as an impact sub unless Martinez opts for a 4-5-1 / 4-3-3 formation instead of his customary 3-4-3. Jordi Gomez, who scored a hat-trick in the reverse fixture, will be hoping for a chance to increase his tally.

At the back, captain Gary Caldwell will likely return in place of understudy Roman Golobart, but his partners Maynor Figueroa and Paul Scharner should keep their places. Emmerson Boyce and Antolin Alcaraz are reportedly in contention for this game, although it’s safe to say only the former  is likely to be involved. A well-rested James McCarthy will return to midfield and his form is crucial to the club’s course over the final third of the season. Shaun Maloney, without a shadow of a doubt Wigan’s player of the season so far, will be hoping to add to his superbly well-taken goal against Chelsea against less-accomplished opposition.

It is always hard to quantify the value of experience in a football match or over the course of a season, but it most frequently boils down to keeping calm, making good decisions, and peaking when the time is right. Wigan Athletic are nothing if not experienced in these types of situations, while Reading are fairly fresh-faced. On current form and on paper, this should be a home win. But Wigan have done what’s necessary time and time again when it has mattered — particularly against direct rivals. You’d be a fool to bet against them.

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Down But Not Out

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February tends to be a worrying month for Wigan Athletic followers and this year is no exception. We have come to the point in time when one starts to wonder what lies ahead for the club. Once more Wigan are in the relegation zone and the tide has still not turned in their favour. Can the team get its act together and deliver what it promises before it is too late and it falls through the trap door of relegation? Can the last minute survival act materialize this time around?  

It was in mid February last season when Latics had been on an 8 match losing streak, but went to Bolton and got a priceless victory to kick-start a revival. Criticism had been raining down from frustrated fans, vilifying the manager, asserting that certain players did not have Premier League  quality. There was a lobby from some who wanted  Roberto Martinez sacked.

Gary Caldwell was one of those players targeted as not being up to par, but he was to prove his critics wrong with a series of outstanding performances when the going was getting tough. Not only that,  but he was to be voted player of the season by the fans. Martinez’ team were to produce not only great results, but to achieve them through merit, playing champagne football in the process. Could the same thing happen again this season?

Wigan currently lie in 19th place with 21 points from 26 matches.  An average of a point per game over the course of a season is usually enough to keep clear of relegation. To get to that 38 point target, Latics would need to get 17 points from their last 12 matches.

Of the remaining games there are two which are extremely difficult – away to Manchester City and Arsenal. The home game against a Tottenham side seeking a top four finish is another difficult one, together with the upcoming visit of Liverpool. The remaining home games are against teams Wigan are good enough to beat: Newcastle, Norwich, Swansea and Aston Villa. The away games at Reading, QPR,  West Ham and West Bromwich are all tough, but winnable.

It is still not time to write off Wigan Athletic. The players are good enough to get the results needed for survival in the highly competitive Premier League. What is needed is just that little bit of luck here and there. Refereeing decisions  have been particularly unkind to Wigan this season and the injury situation has been dire. They say luck evens itself out over the course of a season. If that is the case then Wigan are certainly due to receive a bagful of it over these coming weeks. The chips are down, but don’t count Wigan Athletic out yet.

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