Category Archives: Reflections

It’s them or us – a look at the Premier League relegation battle

Posted by JJ (Tony) in Other, Reflections and tagged with , , , , , ,

table

How soon optimism can dissipate. A momentous 3-0 win at Reading had given Wigan Athletic a real boost and lifted them out of the relegation zone, albeit on goal difference. Then came that painful 4-0 home loss to Liverpool, a horror movie in the making. Can Wigan Athletic pick themselves up, repair their wounded morale and get back into the fray?

The next game for Wigan is one that no realist would expect them to win. The FA Cup 6th round tie at Everton is likely to be largely attended by Latics’ second string. The cup competitions have been the saving grace for Wigan this season, with heartening performances that have helped lift morale within the club. However, Roberto Martinez would be unwise to risk senior players for an FA Cup tie, given Wigan’s precarious league position. If Everton put out their strongest lineup the scoreline could prove scary. The prospect of two consecutive really bad results looms.

That kind of scenario could pose a real challenge for morale within the club, but history shows that Wigan Athletic are resilient. Even after the most disturbing of horrow shows they have shown the soldier’s ability in not looking back.

It’s tight this year. With 10 games to go it is possible for both Sunderland and Newcastle to get sucked into the relegation battle. Both lie 6 points above the relegation zone. However, Sunderland do have some quality and an experienced and capable manager in Martin O’Neill. Newcastle have even more quality players, including transfer window signings and it is unlikely they will get relegated. Norwich above them do not have as much quality, but they are two points ahead of the north east clubs. It would take a calamitous fall for the Canaries to be dragged into the mire.

We are therefore looking at the teams currently in the bottom five – a mini-league between QPR, Reading, Aston Villa, Wigan and Southampton, with the top two surviving.

Let’s take a look at the opposition for Wigan:

Queens Park Rangers won only their third game of the season last weekend, dragging Southampton back into the danger zone. Despite having quality players they have been woeful this season. However, with that kind of quality and a manager as seasoned as Harry Redknapp, don’t count them out. They were lucky to survive last season and fortune could smile on them again. They have yet to play 3 games against the bottom five five teams and 2 against the top five.

Reading looked poor and low on quality against Wigan, but what they lack in class is compensated by their workrate and determination. That spirit has helped them produce last ditch rescues in matches where they have looked down and out. They play 3 games against bottom five and 3 against the top five.

Aston Villa have gambled on youth and their inexperienced defence is very vulnerable. However, senior players such as Charles N’Zogbia and Gabriel Agbonlahor, together with the exciting young striker Christian Benteke pose an attacking threat. They play 3 games against bottom five and 2 against the top five. Their next two games are against QPR and Reading and failure to win at least one of those will put them under great pressure.

Southampton’s bubble is now starting to burst. They had been punching above their weight in lifting themselves out of the relegation zone. A positive, attacking team with a great disciplinary record they don’t deserve to go down. A lot will depend on their resilience. They play only one game against the bottom five and 2 against the top five.

Up to this point results between the “mini-leaguers” put Wigan in front:

1. Wigan Athletic – Home W1 D2 L0 Away W3 D0 L0 – 14 points (from 6 matches)
2. Southampton – Home W1 D2 L0 Away W2 D1 L0 – 13 points (from 7 matches)
3. QPR – Home W0 D2 L1 Away W1 D1 L0 – 6 points (from 5 matches)
4. Aston Villa – Home W1 D0 L2 Away W0 D1 L1 – 4 points (from 5 matches)
5. Reading – Home W0 D0 L1 Away W0 D1 L3 – 1 point (from 5 matches)

Much is going to depend on results in games played between the bottom five. Bad results in two or more of these matches could prove fatal for any of those teams, barring Southampton who only have one remaining, at Reading. The Royals also have home games left against QPR and Aston Villa.

Wigan Athletic have been in this position before and showed the resilience and mental strength to get out of it. Last year’s miraculous type of recovery is unlikely to happen again. It will be more a matter of grinding out results and keeping their heads above water. Wigan will face 2 games against the bottom five and 3 against the top five, a difficult run-in.

Latics fans will hope that survival will still remain a possibility when they face Aston Villa in their final match of the season at the DW Stadium. It would not be the first time that they reached salvation on the final day.

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Down But Not Out

Posted by JJ (Tony) in Other, Reflections and tagged with , ,

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February tends to be a worrying month for Wigan Athletic followers and this year is no exception. We have come to the point in time when one starts to wonder what lies ahead for the club. Once more Wigan are in the relegation zone and the tide has still not turned in their favour. Can the team get its act together and deliver what it promises before it is too late and it falls through the trap door of relegation? Can the last minute survival act materialize this time around?  

It was in mid February last season when Latics had been on an 8 match losing streak, but went to Bolton and got a priceless victory to kick-start a revival. Criticism had been raining down from frustrated fans, vilifying the manager, asserting that certain players did not have Premier League  quality. There was a lobby from some who wanted  Roberto Martinez sacked.

Gary Caldwell was one of those players targeted as not being up to par, but he was to prove his critics wrong with a series of outstanding performances when the going was getting tough. Not only that,  but he was to be voted player of the season by the fans. Martinez’ team were to produce not only great results, but to achieve them through merit, playing champagne football in the process. Could the same thing happen again this season?

Wigan currently lie in 19th place with 21 points from 26 matches.  An average of a point per game over the course of a season is usually enough to keep clear of relegation. To get to that 38 point target, Latics would need to get 17 points from their last 12 matches.

Of the remaining games there are two which are extremely difficult – away to Manchester City and Arsenal. The home game against a Tottenham side seeking a top four finish is another difficult one, together with the upcoming visit of Liverpool. The remaining home games are against teams Wigan are good enough to beat: Newcastle, Norwich, Swansea and Aston Villa. The away games at Reading, QPR,  West Ham and West Bromwich are all tough, but winnable.

It is still not time to write off Wigan Athletic. The players are good enough to get the results needed for survival in the highly competitive Premier League. What is needed is just that little bit of luck here and there. Refereeing decisions  have been particularly unkind to Wigan this season and the injury situation has been dire. They say luck evens itself out over the course of a season. If that is the case then Wigan are certainly due to receive a bagful of it over these coming weeks. The chips are down, but don’t count Wigan Athletic out yet.

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A Return to Alcaraz and a Settled Defence?

Posted by JJ (Tony) in Other, Reflections and tagged with , , , ,

Soccer - Barclays Premier League - Wigan Athletic v Chelsea - DW Stadium

Wigan Athletic’s injury woes continue to hit their chances of Premier League survival.  The hamstring injury suffered by Emmerson Boyce in the recent away game at Stoke was another hammer blow to a defensive line already short of Ivan Ramis and Antolin Alcaraz. Add to that Gary Caldwell continuing to take the field despite a hip injury. Injuries have also taken away midfielder Ben Watson and the speedy wingers, Albert Crusat and Ryo Miyaichi. But it is in the defence where the injuries have been most disruptive, with Roberto Martinez constantly having to change his back line over the course of the season. The end result has been a lack of cohesion, with too many soft goals being given away.

The last time Roberto Martinez was able to field together his most cohesive line of central defenders – Antolin Alcaraz, Gary Caldwell and Maynor Figueroa – was at Blackburn in May of 2012. It was that trio that provided the defensive strength and backbone for Wigan to have an outstanding end to the 2011-2012 season.  Alcaraz has only started two games this season.  It has been a long and slow recuperation from his groin injury. There has been speculation among some fans that it is not the injury that has been keeping the big Paraguayan out, but that his contract runs out at the end of the season. Given Wigan’s predicament one hopes that it is not the latter case, although Alcaraz has had long spells out due to injury in each of his three seasons at the club, making it less likely that his contract would be renewed. For the moment Alcaraz is needed to help Wigan stay clear of relegation.

There is a possibility that Alcaraz will make his return in Saturday’s FA Cup tie at Huddersfield. Were he to come through unscathed he would then be available for the crunch game at Reading the following weekend. Certainly Alcaraz’s return would give Martinez the possibility of putting together that back line which gelled so well at a crucial time last season. However, it would also open up options of releasing Paul Scharner and Maynor Figueroa as wing backs.

Wigan fans will hope that Emmerson Boyce will be fit for the Reading game. The improvement in the 33 year old’s passing since the arrival of Martinez has been huge. Boyce has become an excellent wing back, solid in defence, tireless in approach and even scoring spectacular goals in attack. In his seventh season at the club,  Boyce too has been susceptible to injury in recent years.  He completed 26 games last season and 22 the previous year. A fully fit Emmerson Boyce is another key factor in Wigan’s bid to avoid relegation.

It has been fascinating to watch Paul Scharner settle back so quickly into the Latics team. He looks a natural in that right centre back position, although he still has to work on his alignment with his fellow central defenders. Scharner has always been a useful central defender, if he himself has preferred to play in midfield.  One hopes he can maintain his discipline and resist the urge to commit himself too far forward, putting the defence at risk.

A settled back line is of paramount importance to Wigan Athletic’s chances of staying in the Premier League this season. Let’s hope that the injury jinx will no longer rear its ugly head. Even though Ivan Ramis is out for the reminder of the season, it would help Roberto Martinez greatly if all the other experienced defenders in his squad were to be available.

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No Place Like Home

Posted by JJ (Tony) in Other, Reflections and tagged with , , ,

dwstdred

Another nervy, edgy performance by  Wigan Athletic on their home ground. The end result a 2-2 draw with newly promoted Southampton. The visitors dominated the game so much that they looked like the home team.  Why were Latics not able to stamp their authority against a team short of Premier League experience, whom they had already beaten in August? Why didn’t Wigan put  them under pressure from the start? So far this season Latics have a woeful record of W2 D4 L7 at the DW Stadium. The wins came against West Ham and Reading. So why are Wigan not a greater force to be reckoned with on their home ground?

Since joining the Premier League Wigan Athletic have an aggregate home record of W46 D43 L57. In fact only in two seasons have they won more matches at home than they have lost, both during Steve Bruce’s reign between 2007 and 2009. Even in that wonderful Premier League debut  season of 2005-2006, under Paul Jewell, they lost more than they won at home, although their away form was excellent. It was in Latics’ second season in the Premier League that they gained the least total of points at home, with just  19. Martinez’ teams  gained 22 home points in 2011-2012, 23 points in 2010-2011,  and the best being 25 points in 2009-2010, when they won as many as they lost at home.  

Steve Bruce had some simple strategies that worked during his brief tenure in the Premier League with Wigan. He produced teams of iron, with a combative and aggressive midfield providing cover for the defence. He did not worry too much about results against the top clubs, but stressed the importance of good performances against teams nearer the bottom.  But more than anything else his teams performed well at home.

Figures sometimes don’t tell a true story, or should I say that results don’t always paint a true picture of a game?  Too often this season  the picture has been Wigan playing good football, but being undone by individual or collective errors. Sometimes they have been plain unlucky. Injuries have reaped havoc and the team has played all season without a settled defence. Critics would say you make your own luck and that Wigan go into matches without a proactive approach, paying too much respect to the opposition and only rallying when going behind. For what reason did Wigan not put the pressure on Southampton in the opening part of the game? Was it due to a lack of confidence or a tactical approach that did not work? In order for Wigan to stay afloat this season their approach needs to be more proactive, less reactive.

Last season Wigan Athletic drew one and won four of their last five home games. Crowd support was a key factor in their resurgence. Latics now have only six home games left this season – with Liverpool, Newcastle, Norwich, Swansea, Tottenham and Aston Villa coming up. It is to be hoped that their home form will have improved sufficiently by then to make that final match with the Villans a meaningful encounter. The DW Stadium needs to become a ‘Fortress Wigan’ if that is going to happen.

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That sinking feeling — how can Wigan defy relegation?

Posted by JJ (Tony) in Other, Reflections and tagged with ,

logo_premier_league_1241BadgeLatics
That sinking feeling is back again. After the resolute rearguard performance at Fulham came the 25 minutes of defensive shambles which gifted Sunderland three points. An exposed defence lacking cohesion, leaking like a sieve. Players looking short on confidence, with nobody willing to take a risk and do something special.

Once again Wigan Athletic find themselves in the bottom three in the month of January. The team that promised so much at the end of last season has failed to live up to expectations. Key players have had dips in their form at various times since the season’s opener in August, even Wigan’s top player, goalkeeper Ali Al Habsi. So many times the team has played well enough to merit a positive result, but it has not happened because of individual errors or a collective lack of understanding among the back line. Put simply, there is no reward for playing good football if you give away goals by not getting your fundamentals right.

Are Latics capable of staying up? How are they going to be able to stop hemorrhaging goals, having conceded 43 in 23 league matches up to this point? The good news is that they are still 4 points ahead of bottom placed QPR and only 4 points behind Southampton, currently in 15th place. A couple of back-to-back wins would be sufficient to get them out of the bottom three.

So what can Wigan do to defy the threat of relegation?

1. Stick with the 3-4-3 formation, but have a plan B if things go awry. The current squad has been built around the 3-4-3 formation. It is not the system that has been the determining factor in the more disappointing performances witnessed this season, but individual and collective errors. Wigan are the only team in the Premier League to regularly play 3-4-3 and other teams have had difficulty dealing with it. However, tactically wiser opposition managers have learned to find ways of neutralizing the wing backs, who play a crucial role in the system. If the shape becomes neutralized then it needs to be adapted. Being behind at Fulham, Roberto Martinez reverted to a flat back four in the second half, pushing the balance back into Wigan’s favour.

2. Avoid losing to other teams in the danger zone. The home encounter with the Southampton on February 2nd is going to be a crucial one for Wigan, as are all of those against teams in the danger zone. In the first half of the season Wigan had largely positive results against teams currently in the bottom 6. The one they lost was 3-0 at Newcastle, but they beat Aston Villa, Reading and Southampton and drew with QPR.

3.Sign a dominant and experienced central defender in the January transfer window. The loss of Ivan Ramis for the rest of the season with a serious knee injury was a hammer blow. Add to that the hamstring injury suffered by Adrian Lopez and the slow recuperation of Antolin Alcaraz. Injuries have meant that Wigan have had to constantly chop and change their back three, resulting in a lack of mutual understanding between the players selected. Last season’s grand finale was based on a back three of Alcaraz, Caldwell and Figueroa, each player knowing the other ones’ game, gelling together as a unit. The trio have not once played together in a back three unit this season. Moreover in recent matches Emmerson Boyce has had to be moved across from wingback to the centre of defence. Having Boyce at wing back gives Wigan more height in defence, a key factor in the aerial battles.

4.Crowd support. Latics great escape last season was underpinned by the wonderful “I’m a Believer” support they got. Being a Wigan Athletic supporter in the Premier League can be exasperating, but that intensity of support is going to be needed if Wigan are to defy their critics in the media and stay in there.

5. Stay calm when other teams are panicking. Latics have been in this position before and have kept their cool and survived. Any 3 of the teams currently in the bottom 6 could go down, but there is always the possibility of a club in a higher position going into freefall. Teams  like Fulham, Norwich and Sunderland could yet be dragged into the relegation mire, with panic setting in.

6.Have luck smile upon Wigan Athletic. Seldom does a team suffer the number of injuries that have hit Wigan Athletic this season. The injuries have had a severe disruptive effect on team performance and morale. Some say that refereeing decisions even themselves out over the course of the season. However, teams near the bottom seem to consistently suffer, more so than those at the other end of the table. In Wigan’s case it has been severe, with so many marginal penalty decisions given against them, let alone good goals being disallowed for non-existent offsides and dubious red cards changing the course of a game. They say that you make your own luck. Let’s hope Wigan can do that!

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