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Joyce’s New Year Shopping List

Posted by JJ (Tony) in Specials and tagged with , , ,

shoppingWhat will the New Year bring for Wigan Athletic?

Consolidation in a division where salaries and aspirations continue to spiral out of reasonable proportions? Warren Joyce showing us that Dave Whelan and David Sharpe made the right decision in appointing him? Come May will we see Latics out of the relegation zone?

Joyce has not had an easy start, picking up 4 points from his 4 games in charge. However, it could be said that he has been unlucky in having to face teams in top form at the time Latics played them. It is 18 years ago since Joyce saved Hull City from dropping down from the Football League. He had been appointed caretaker player-manager in November 1998 with the club in deep relegation mire. By the end of the calendar year his team had won only one game under his charge, losing the other five. But January saw them go on an unbeaten run and gather the momentum to free themselves from the threat of relegation.

Whether Joyce can turn around Latics’ fortunes will be largely influenced by the comings and goings in the January transfer window. He has taken over a squad that has been heavily hit by injuries, but which also contains players from last season’s League 1 title winning squad who have struggled to find their best form. Joyce will have to decide which of them will be able to make a mark in the Championship division, the alternative being to release them or send them off on loan in January.

Donervon Daniels and Andy Kellett are in the early stages of returning from injury, although Reece James has had another setback after being out since January. Luke Garbutt’s loan from Everton is due to expire, although Joyce might be tempted to look at extending it if complications over James’ ankle continue. Alex Gilbey is getting closer to recovery, but Adam Bogdan is out until the end of the season. To complicate things further, reports from London media suggest that West Ham will be cutting short Reece Burke’s loan due to injuries within their senior squad.

Last January Gary Caldwell signed Yanic Wildschut on a permanent contract and added Ryan Colclough, Sam Morsy and Reece Wabara to the squad. He also signed Dan Lavercombe and Danny Whitehead, both of whom were sent back on loan to their parent clubs. He released Don Cowie and Grant Holt  with  Richard O’Donnell being sold to Bristol City. Loanees  Shaq Coulthirst, Jordy Hiwula, Francisco Junior, Sean Murray and Alex Revell were to leave in December/January. Caldwell later brought in more loanees in Conor McAleny in early February and Stephen Warnock in early March. The overall effect was a strengthening of the squad, leading to a League 1 champion’s title.

However, the previous season saw the fire sale when Malky Mackay ripped the heart of the squad by releasing thirteen players. He replaced them largely with loanees and short term signings. The result was a severely weakened squad, leading to relegation.

So will Joyce’s January transfer activities parallel the magnitude of the flux we have seen over the past couple of seasons? A new manager typically likes to bring in his own new players, the theory being that he is searching for those who will fit into his style of play. However, other than having pacey forwards capable of rapid counterattacking, it is hard to define the type of player Joyce would want to bring in.

In fact Joyce’s most urgent task is the recruitment of new coaching and backroom staff. First team coach, Joe Parkinson, left the club at the end of November but has not yet been replaced. Ex-Manchester City reserve team coach, Andy Welsh, currently Sunderland youth team coach was mentioned by the media as a possible replacement soon after, but nothing has materialised up to this point. Given Joyce’s links with Manchester United it was perhaps inevitable that there would be speculation over him bringing in people he knew there. The names of Paul McGuinness, Jim Ryan and Paul Scholes have been touted by the media.

Given the way the club has been run in recent years the recruitment of coaching staff and players will depend on financial constraints. The manner in which Will Grigg has been side lined by both Caldwell and Joyce it appears that the player could be on his way in January. Should Grigg be sold he would surely attract a transfer fee in excess of the £900,000 Latics reputedly paid Brentford for him. His sale would give Joyce funds to recruit players of his choice.

However, in purely business terms, the sale of Grigg in January would be inopportune. Better to wait until the end of the season. Had the player been given a regular place in the starting line-up and continued to score goals his transfer value would have rocketed. But given Joyce’s preference of pace in the lone centre forward position, as in his deployment of Wildschut, it is doubtful whether Grigg will ever become the first choice central striker under Joyce.

Joyce must seek a balance between bringing in new players and avoiding the kind of disastrous fire sale that we saw a couple of years ago.

So what are the areas that need strengthening?

Bogdan’s injury means that Joyce will search for a goalkeeper to compete with the 41 year old Jussi Jaaskelainen and the 20 year old Dan Lavercombe. The media are already speculating that he will go for the loan of 23 year old Sam Johnstone from Manchester United. It would be the seventh club Johnstone would have joined on loan.

A new right back is a real priority. Even if Reece Burke does not return to West Ham he is best deployed as a central defender. He is not a specialist right back. Over the summer Latics made bids for 22 year old Hearts right back, Callum Patterson, who was to go on to play for Scotland. The Edinburgh club rejected Wigan’s bids as being well below their valuation of the player. The current rumour is that Reece Wabara will return. Caldwell had stated that he had offered Wabara a contract in summer but terms could not be agreed. Wabara has not joined another club since and is available as a free agent. Wabara had his moments during his time at Wigan, but failed to totally convince.

Should Grigg leave, Joyce will seek a pacey central striker to replace him. He could also use a left winger with pace. Joyce might well want to play a high pressing game, but is currently hamstrung by the lack of pace in the centre of defence. None of Dan Burn, Jake Buxton or Craig Morgan has the kind of pace needed for playing a high line. Jack Hendry is due to return from his loan spell at MK Dons, but the 21 year old has made just 6 appearances so far for the League 1 side. Donervon Daniels has pace and will come back into the reckoning once he is fully fit. In the meantime Joyce could well look at bringing in fresh blood in the centre of defence.

On paper Latics have a well-balanced midfield, but up to this point it has hardly clicked. Shaun MacDonald has claimed the position in front of the back four with David Perkins and Max Power also capable of playing there or in a role further forward. Alex Gilbey had adjusted well to the Championship before his injury and will challenge for a place when fit. Jordi Gomez, Michael Jacobs and Nick Powell are better suited to more attacking roles, particularly in the hole behind the central striker. Neither Gomez nor Powell have made a consistent impression so far; Jacobs has shown his ability to work hard for his team but not consistently revealed the kind of flair he showed in League 1. The result has been a lack of creativity.

At times the midfield has looked short of a dominant player, someone physically strong with genuine presence. Such a player might prove beyond Latics’ price range, but the midfield blend has not worked well up to this point.

Jordan Flores’ career seems to have floundered, having made only one appearance this season in the League Cup defeat at Oldham. Flores is a skilful and talented performer, but one wonders if he has the physicality to adapt to Joyce’s system. Should he not feature or make an impression in the five games remaining in the calendar year we can expect him to be leaving in January, possibly on loan.

January could once again be a busy time for incomings and outgoings at Wigan Athletic.

 

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The finances facing Joyce

Posted by JJ (Tony) in Financial and tagged with , , , ,
Photo courtesy of Wigan Athletic FC.

Photo courtesy of Wigan Athletic FC.

Just nine days ago Warren Joyce left a comfortable position at Manchester United to join a club struggling to avoid relegation whose budget ranks them at 19th in the Championship division.

Why would Joyce sever the link with Manchester United, a giant club where he had been held in high standing for more than eight years, to take over Wigan Athletic? How did David Sharpe sell the move to him?

A three and a half year contract probably helped, but what vision did Sharpe give him of where he expected the club to go in that time? What financial backing would the chairman be willing to provide to help Joyce compete for new players on an even keel against other clubs in the division?

Joyce has a fine reputation for developing young players, but it was at a club where funding was plentiful. If Wigan Athletic’s wage bill is already low compared with the majority of clubs in the division, what is it going to be a year from now when the inflow of parachute payments will have dried up?

It was Jonathan Jackson who mentioned the budget ranking at a recent Fans Advisory Board meeting, according to a reliable source. But how can this be the case when Latics are still receiving parachute payments?

Getting accurate financial data from football clubs is never easy and what you can get applies to years well gone by. But Jackson’s alleged statement certainly gives food for thought.

If a business were run like a typical Championship club it would soon find its way to bankruptcy. In 2014-15 Bournemouth spent lavishly on their ascent to the Premier League, making a loss of £39 million. From a financial point of view it could be said that the Cherries’ gamble came off and that the loss could be written off by the huge increase in revenue in the Premier League. But Fulham lost £27 million in finishing in 17th position, with Nottingham Forest losing £22 million and Blackburn Rovers £17 million only to hover around mid-table.

In fact 18 of the 24 clubs made losses that year. Of those in the black, Birmingham City and Wolves used their £10 million parachute payments to keep their heads above water, each making a profit of around £1 million. Three other clubs showed profits through transfers, revaluation of assets and owners writing off debt. Only Rotherham United, who made a tiny profit, did so without such inputs. They did well to narrowly escape relegation.

Wigan Athletic are one of 8 Championship clubs receiving parachute payments. The clubs that are newly relegated from the Premier League will receive around £28 million in their first season, whereas Latics are in their final parachute season and will receive around £10 million. Next season they will receive a solidarity payment of around £2.5million due to clubs in the division who are not in receipt of  parachute payments.

Last season in League 1 the parachute payments gave Latics a huge advantage over the other 23 clubs who did not have them. They were able to pay out major transfer fees and offer lucrative salaries to players who had completed their contracts at other clubs. The result was a squad too strong for the third tier.

However, the tables have now turned. Wigan Athletic find themselves in a division loaded not only with other clubs buoyed by parachute payments, but others whose owners are splashing out major money in a bid for promotion. In contrast Latics’  recruitment policy has had to be adapted according to the constraints of its finances.

Five players have been brought in on loan, another nine for either economical transfer fees or on free transfers. When Latics last started a Championship season under Owen Coyle the salary budget was around £30m.  The current budget could be as much as 40% less. The main factor is the reduction in the parachute payments from around £25m in the first year and £20m in the second to £10m in the third and fourth years. However, knowing that there will be a major drop in revenue next season, the club has had to be careful in offering long term contracts with lucrative salaries. One half of the players recruited this summer have contracts that expire before and or at the end of the season.

In a recent visit to Brentford to watch Latics fight I spoke at length with a group of their fans about their chances of reaching the Premier League. On paper it does not seem impossible. On coming up from League 1 the Bees finished 5th in 2014-15, reaching the playoffs. Last season saw them finish 9th. However, the Brentford fans were not optimistic about their club’s ability to reach the top division. They pointed out that they have a salary cap for individual players and have to sell off their top assets if realistic sums are offered. They surmised that owner Matthew Benham has put in over £90m into getting the club where it is today. Without his support they would surely flounder.

Brentford provides a model for comparison. Their average crowd last season was 10,700 which is close to what we can expect at Wigan this season. But in gaining promotion they made a loss of £7.7 million, which rose to £14.7 million that first season back in the Championship, with wages going from £10 million to £17.7 million.

The reality is that, without major input of funds from the owners on par with those of competitor clubs, Latics will not be able to compete on an even keel in the division.

Following a dire 3-0 home defeat to Reading, Wigan Athletic’s place in the Championship remains in jeopardy. There were always going to be questions over the ability of players from last season’s squad to replicate such form in a higher division. Moreover a more cash-strapped  recruitment process involved  a number of the players brought in have been short of first team exposure in the past year. This is not to suggest that those players do not have sufficient quality for the division, but it was always going to take them time for their match sharpness and overall fitness to reach a competitive level.

It is once more a period of transition for Wigan Athletic. For so many years Dave Whelan’s  financial backing, together with good management and terrific spirit, helped the club eclipse so many of the others currently in the Championship division. But times have changed and we will have to wait and see how the club will cut its cloth over the coming 12 months.

The first priority is for Joyce to get his new club out of the relegation zone and consolidate its place in the division. Should that happen we will then be looking at how the club is going to stay competitive in a division when the financial odds will have turned against their favour.

In his first full season David Sharpe brought back vitality and optimism to Wigan Athletic. His positivity shone through in his communications with the media and in his willingness to spend big in bringing players into the club who could help ensure promotion back to the Championship. When he appointed Gary Caldwell he talked about bringing back football played “The Wigan Way”, suggesting that the Scot would be there long-term. The chairman’s positivity was to be rewarded with a League 1 championship title.

But times and circumstances have changed.

In the summer of 2015 Sharpe had splashed out close to £1 million to bring a central striker, a hefty fee for a club about to begin anew in League 1. Moreover in the January transfer window he finalized the transfer of a player on loan for around £600,000. Without Will Grigg and Yanic Wildschut Latics would have been hard pressed to get promotion, let alone win the division.

This summer saw players brought in for modest fees, others being free agents or loanees. Granted Sharpe did stick his neck out to offer contracts which one assumes were close to the market rate for players like Jordi Gomez, Adam Le Fondre, Nick Powell and Stephen Warnock. Moreover a three year contract was offered to the 31 year old Jake Buxton who arrived on a free.

Sharpe’s recent comments about Joyce’s appointment and the club’s immediate future suggest that the Whelan family is unwilling to put in the kind of financial investment that is the norm in so many other clubs in the division. The chairman has made it clear that he is not going to throw money around in the style of clubs like Derby County, whilst emphasising the new manager’s skills at developing players. Put simply there is not the same vibe coming from the young chairman that we had a year ago.

The main aim for the current season must be consolidation in the Championship. It is to be hoped that Sharpe will avoid the kind of fire sale that we witnessed in January 2015 that led to relegation. It was an exercise based on cutting the wage budget by at least 30%. Significant money was saved in the short term, the club eventually losing £3.9 million for the season, substantially less than it would have been. But relegation was to mean that the club would only have one more year of a parachute buffer even if it were to regain Championship level status. With hindsight the scale of the clear out was a major mistake. But will history repeat itself this coming January?

In the meantime Joyce will try to get the best out of a squad that has enough quality to get out of the relegation zone. In the long-term, assuming he is given the longevity denied to Caldwell, he will most likely be working on a budget that will be dwarfed by those of the vast majority of clubs in the division. The strategy will involve selling off the pick of those young players the manager has developed in order to stay afloat.

Joyce’s immediate task of consolidation in the division is his most immediate challenge. Should he manage to do that he will face a more difficult task: that of achieving miracles on a shoestring budget.

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A case for cautious optimism in the Joyce era

Posted by JJ (Tony) in Specials and tagged with , , ,

 

A couple of weeks ago many Wigan Athletic supporters had probably never even heard of Manchester United’s reserve team coach Warren Joyce. The betting at the time was on Old Trafford icon Ryan Giggs. But as the talk of the former Welsh winger gradually evaporated, the harsh reality hit us. How likely was it that Latics could actually afford Giggs, or that he would even seriously consider a relegation battle in the Championship at Wigan?

The process of appointing Joyce seemed to drag. Indeed, a thread on the normally effervescent Vital Wigan forum entitled “Excitement levels reaching zero” referred to his impending appointment.  The premature dismissal of Gary Caldwell was still ringing in our ears, leaving a feeling of lingering discomfort among some. There were hopes for a big name like Giggs or maybe an experienced ex-Premier League or Championship level manger.

But as time has worn on people have started to learn more about Joyce and his potential to do a good job at Wigan. Indeed some questioned why he would want to take the job, given his successes at Manchester United and his high standing within the club. More than a few of us are now wondering whether David Sharpe has made an inspired choice in recruiting the Oldham-born coach.

Joyce might not be a household name, but has certainly been held in high regard in Manchester. He had spells managing clubs at both Hull City and Royal Antwerp and had a highly successful record with the Manchester United development squad. But where can he take Latics? What will be his brief? What kind of backing will he get from Sharpe?

Although Joyce’s appointment eventually came as no surprise there was an element of the latter in him being given a three and a half year contract. Previous managers had been appointed on rolling contracts, so why has Joyce been treated differently? One possibility is that he would not have taken the position without that security. It is only 18 months ago that the chairman was talking about Caldwell being at the club long-term. Or was Sharpe making a statement by offering his new manager such a deal?

In the last 24 hours we have been able to listen to Sharpe talking about the new manager’s appointment and Joyce himself talking about his new job and his past experience. Sharpe commented that:

“Warren is the perfect manager and coach for where we are at as a club right now. He’s great at developing younger players, putting his time into younger players and coaching them into becoming winners and better footballers but he also relies upon experience too, like we already have.”

The chairman also made it clear that the club would not be splashing money around like Newcastle United, Aston Villa, Derby County and Sheffield Wednesday.

Joyce’s immediate task is to lift the club out of the relegation zone. In the long term his ability to develop young players will be of paramount importance in a club that will no longer be buoyed by parachute payments. Put simply, he will be responsible for enabling the club to punch above its weight in a division where so many others are splashing out money like confetti.

In order to maintain financial stability at Championship level, without major injections of funds from the Whelan family, the club will need to generate the bulk of its revenue through the development and sale of young talent. If that is indeed the club’s desired direction, Joyce appears an astute and logical appointment.

In the meantime, his focus will be on a win or two to ease the nerves that led to Caldwell’s dismissal, and his arrival.

Getting it right against Burton – match preview

Posted by JJ (Tony) in Match Previews and tagged with , , , ,

In late November, 2015, we saw a dull, scrappy game at the DW Stadium.

It offered little in the way of entertainment and seemed to be heading for a goalless draw until Abdenasser El Khayati scored for the visitors from a breakaway in the 74th minute. An ugly, but well organised Burton Albion side, who had looked like they had come for a draw, went on to inflict on Wigan their first league home defeat of the season.

Following a difficult start to the season, Latics had been on an unbeaten run of 11 matches, moving up to 4th place, Burton being just a point behind them in 5th. Burton’s victory helped them leapfrog over Latics and it was to be the case for four more months, with the Brewers looking like potential champions until Wigan overtook them late in the season.

Latics entertain Burton once again on Saturday, four points behind the Brewers in the Championship division. In the corresponding game last season Gary Caldwell was outmaneuvered by his opposite number, Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink. On a day when so many players were below par it was hard to come up with positives. Caldwell had clearly been preaching patience to his players, as they struggled to break down the Burton defence.

Sadly the patience was there, but the dynamism that was lacking.Yanic Wildschut was heavily marked. Michael Jacobs was ineffective on the right and Alex Revell, favoured ahead of Will Grigg, was a lonely figure up front. So can Caldwell get it right this time around?

Even though Hasselbaink left the Brewers for QPR last December, Nigel Clough was to gain promotion on his return to the club. Like his predecessor Clough is tactically astute and his Burton team will pose a challenge. He will have done his homework and will be ready to cancel out Wigan’s attacking players.

Following a home win against Wolves and a draw at Brentford after a dismal set of results, Caldwell will be keen to get a good result on Saturday.

Last season he played a modified 3-4-3, which Burton managed to stifle. Given the improvements in performances since aborting playing three at the back Caldwell can be expected to adopt a 4-3-3 formation.

However, the manager is never predictable. The return from injury of Reece Burke gives him the option of playing the talented West Ham loanee on the right of a back three, with Nathan Byrne in his natural position as right wing back. The alternative is to play Burke at right back, with Byrne as a winger.

Latics are certainly good enough to beat Burton, but a home win is by no means a foregone conclusion. The visitors will be a hard nut to crack. Caldwell’s approach to the game last year was cautious, but at the time Wigan had ground out previous results playing like that. It just did not work out against another team which played the same way.

But then again, can Latics surprise us and press Burton from the start, getting an early goal, setting up a comfortable victory?

Gomez already in tune

Posted by JJ (Tony) in Player profiles and tagged with ,

Will Jordi Gomez be willing to take a pay cut to rejoin Latics?

He started slowly at Norwich, but in the 37th minute he ghosted into a centre forward position to meet Michael Jacobs’ cross, only to be thwarted by a superb block from Martin Olsson. As the second half progressed he became the orchestrator, receiving the ball under pressure, spraying passes out to the wings. It was no big surprise when he opened Latics’ account in the 72nd minute with an opportunist goal when Will Grigg’s flick opened up space in the Norwich rearguard. Just a minute later he was to go inches wide with a crisply taken free kicked curled around the defensive wall.

Wigan Athletic were unlucky not to have come away with a point from Carrow Road after all had seemed lost early in the proceedings. In the second half they had played to the Caldwell tune, with Jordi Gomez the orchestrator. Back at the club after a two year absence he looked consummately at ease with the style of football his team was playing.

Jordi Gomez is not everybody’s cup of tea. He had four years of Premier League football under the tutelage of Roberto Martinez, but only started in some 40% of the games, scoring a total of 10 goals. However, the manager always kept faith in his fellow Catalan, whose style of play many would say epitomized the Martinez era. The names of the two became practically synonymous, so much so that elements of the crowd, frustrated at the slowness of build-up play would so often vent their fury on Gomez.

But the build-up play in the second half at Norwich was not so slow and Gomez was clearly enjoying it. In his final season at Wigan prior to leaving for Sunderland Gomez suffered for months under a manager who considered him a “luxury player”. It was when the inept Owen Coyle left and Uwe Rosler took over that we saw the best of the player, who provided inspiration for a surge in the second half of the season that took Latics into the FA Cup semi-final and the Championship playoffs. Gomez scored 2 goals under Coyle and 9 under Rosler.

Gary Caldwell’s style of football bears a strong resemblance to that of Roberto Martinez, if a little more pragmatic. It is therefore no surprise that he can achieve harmony so quickly with the totally new faces around him in the Wigan Athletic team. Knowing Jordi as we do, we can continue to expect the kind of frustrating back passes that have typically marked his play, but at the same time we know that at Championship level he is a player to be reckoned with.

Gomez is already in tune. Despite having just a 22 minute appearance off the bench against QPR and very little pre-season game time, he went the full 90 at Norwich. Some have labelled him as lazy, his languid style betraying the yardage he covers during a game. There was no sign of laziness at Carrow Road: more that of a player committed to becoming a vital cog in Gary Caldwell’s machine.

Gomez will continue to divide opinion among supporters, but he fits into Caldwell’s style of play like a glove. At his best he can orchestrate the midfield, scoring goals and putting through slide rule passes to his forwards. He will surely be looking forward to a successful return to Wigan.