Sunderland 1 Wigan Athletic 2: Luck turns

We asked — we begged and pleaded — for a bit of luck, and finally we have received. After weeks upon weeks of dodgy refereeing, ill-timed injuries, missed penalties, Victor Moses’ personal mission to hit the post but not score, we finally caught a break, and won a match we probably did not deserve to win.

Quite how you can play as well as Latics did away at Newcastle and lose, and then beat Sunderland as we did on Sunday, I’m not sure. Roberto tends to praise his team’s performance when results go the wrong way. This was the opposite, a decidedly average if resolute performance, but an excellent result.

Latics started like wounded dogs — after the morale crushing finale against Blackburn a week prior — and it was no surprise when Sebastian Larsson put Sunderland ahead after 8 minutes. Ali Al-Habsi made a rare mistake, spilling from Nicklas Bendtner’s optimistic shot. The Omani keeper’s subsequent block fell to the Swede, a bright light in Sunderland’s poor campaign, and he made no mistake.

Al-Habsi redeemed himself with a string of excellent saves before Ronnie Stam skied Latics’ first half-chance at the other end. It was the Dutchman’s dangerous cross minutes later, however, that led to the equaliser. Conor Sammon was a foot from connecting inside the penalty area, but when he missed Victor Moses was ready at the far post, collecting, spinning into the box and drawing a foul from Sunderland’s goalscorer. Larsson might have been better off letting the winger shoot, but having witnessed Ben Watson’s two most recent penalty efforts perhaps felt it was a gamble worth taking. Referee Kevin Friend pointed to the spot and the Latics faithful breathed a sigh of relief as Jordi Gomez confidently sent the keeper the wrong way to equalize just before the half.

The second half was not one for the neutral, but Latics did look determined. Gary Caldwell in particular made a few key defensive clearances while Al-Habsi continued to make up for his early error. Conor Sammon broke excitingly from midfield before running out of ideas and being muscled off the ball in one of Latics’ more exciting counter attacks. Sunderland did some aerial bombarding, but it was all predictable and Latics three centre-halves coped with what was thrown at them. It all looked set for a bore draw when James McArthur, on for Ronnie Stam, pounced on a poor touch from Wes Brown, squaring for Franco Di Santo to tap in. A costly defensive mistake from the Sunderland perspective, a reward for a determined performance for the Latics.

Roberto spoke after the match about the healthy competition for places in the squad — the goal was a result of the energy and drive of his two substitutes. It does say a lot that Ben Watson and Hugo Rodallega — two of the first names on the teamsheet a month ago, and last season — were unused substitutes. Martinez stuck to his new tactical system, with Ronnie Stam and David Jones operating as wing-backs on the right and left respectively, ahead of the trio of centre-backs Caldwell, Figueroa and Gohouri. It will be interesting to see if he keeps faith in the system that has yielded four points from six (which would have been six from six but for the inexplicable refereeing against Blackburn) once Antolin Alcaraz and Emmerson Boyce return from suspension and injury respectively. A central three of Caldwell, Alcaraz and Boyce, or Caldwell, Alcaraz and Figueroa, is promising. And I wouldn’t mind seeing Patrick Van Aanholt, so dangerous against Everton in an attacking left-back role, at left wing-back.

The midfield was quiet, although James McCarthy did win the battle against Lee Cattermole, who was substituted for David Vaughn after an ineffectual match. The young Irishman/Scot is solid enough in that deep role, but you do feel his true potential lies in a more attacking role. Mohammed Diame was subdued, while Jordi Gomez is much less effective when the team does not control possession (although thank goodness he was there to take the penalty — who else could be trusted with it?). Victor Moses won the penalty and broke with pace on a few occasions, but didn’t have a shot on target that I can remember. Conor Sammon toiled but didn’t have much to work with.

But three points are three points. What happened here is what typically happens the other way around. Steve Bruce was naive to leave one man at the back as Sunderland chased three points, and our substitutes pounced. Wigan has now leapfrogged Blackburn in the table, and despite the terrifying fixture list ahead there is cause for optimism. Five goals in two matches, a new tactical system that seems to be working, and a squad in which every player is replaceable. Arsenal play Manchester City in the Carling Cup tonight, and with Wenger talking up the need to rest Van Persie and Walcott, opportunity knocks.

A Neutral Would Say

Wigan were a bit lucky to emerge with three points, but Sunderland were sloppy.

Player Ratings

Al Al-Habsi: 7.5 —  Made a mistake on the goal but kept Latics in the game with some excellent saves.

Steve Gohouri: 6 — Doesn’t inspire confidence, but wasn’t at fault for the goal and otherwise kept Sunderland out.

Gary Caldwell: 6.5 — The best of the three central defenders, he made some important clearances. We may see his best football with this new system.

Maynor Figueroa: 6 — Out of position in the first half when Phil Bardsley skied what should have been Sunderland’s second goal. But kept them out thereafter.

Ronnie Stam: 6.5 — Didn’t get forward enough, but was involved in Latics’ best attacking forays when he did.

David Jones: 5.5 — A bit quiet in this one.

Mo Diame: 6 — Also quiet. Shouldn’t be taking free-kicks.

James McCarthy: 6 — Lots of tackling and simple passing, won the battle with Cattermole. But gave the ball away once or twice a bit dangerously.

Jordi Gomez: 6 — Will thrive in this system when Latics dominate possession, but doesn’t have the pace to be effective when counter-attacking. Surprising that he wasn’t replaced by Crusat.

Victor Moses: 7 — Won the penalty, and caused problems with his dribbling as always. Probably earned Sunderland a collective 4 yellow cards.

Conor Sammon: 6 — Worked hard and made one barn-storming run from midfield, but lacks the dribbling and culture of Franco Di Santo. Still, his and Moses’ pace made the Sunderland defense work.

Subs:

James McArthur: 7 — Came on for Ronnie Stam, a defensive substitution when the match was crying out for a quicker option like Albert Crusat. But it was his sheer determination to win the loose ball from Wes Brown that led to the winner. Also kept his cool to square to Di Santo when he could have easily gone for glory and missed. Tempting to say that if it had been the other way around, Franco would have shot!

Franco Di Santo: 7 — His work-rate is very good, and he’s excellent with the ball at his feet. It was his harassing of Kieran Westwood that led to Wes Brown’s poor touch. Big questions about his finishing remain, but he got the winner this time. Pleased for him.

STEVE BRUCE’S TEAMS DESERVE RESPECT, EVEN IF NOT PRETTY TO WATCH: Preview of Sunderland-Wigan Athletic

Steve Bruce is a name that most Wiganers will regard with respect. He kept Wigan Athletic afloat during difficult times in the Premier League in his return to the club. In his previous spell he got his team into the playoffs, where they were unluckily defeated. He left Wigan to join a club willing and able to spend so much more cash, hungry  for improvement. Sunderland got major cash windfalls through the sales of Kenwyne Jones and Jordan Henderson, but Bruce  has also spent a lot of money, has  a high wage bill  and has to deal with high expectations from the fans. Poor results are putting him under increasing pressure. Bruce won 32% of his Premier League games at Wigan. At Sunderland he has won only 28% so far, despite major capital outlays. Sunderland stand 15th two points above the drop zone. Bruce’s job is under threat: a bad result this weekend could be the final straw.

Sunderland, like the Wigan team in Bruce’s time, will not be pretty to watch. It will be fight-ball, rather than football, with the ball in the air, looking for knock-ons and deflections. Strong tacking will be the order of the day. It was a successful formula at Wigan and probably will be at Sunderland , if he is given the time to persevere. Latics have gone nine games without a win; Sunderland have won one in their last seven. Sunderland have won only two of their Premier League games against Wigan, whereas Latics have won five. Latics have taken seven points out of fifteen at Sunderland over the past five years.

So the portents suggest Latics have a decent chance of getting of getting a result against Sunderland. However, a certain amount of steel will be needed to do so. That was not evident last year when they capitulated 4-2 to an injury ravaged Sunderland team. If Latics are to be successful this time around they will need to stop Sunderland playing the way they like to play. Moreover they will need to avoid red cards and convert a much higher percentage of their goal scoring attempts into goals. More than anything they are going to have to have the mental steel and concentration required to beat the hosts. Hopefully Martinez will stick with his enlightened new tactical formation. Having three central defenders would help cope with the aerial threat, but the wing backs will need to play an important defensive role on the flanks. Cutting out the crosses is key to containing Sunderland.

Latics’ formation in the Blackburn match was a revelation. The result was disappointing, but a victory would have been well merited. Let those wing backs attack Sunderland and put quality crosses over. Oh, for a couple of central strikers to put the ball in the back of the net! Remember that Steve Bruce’s teams, like him deserve respect. They are never easy to beat. But it can be done!

Go Wigan: we can beat them!

A BREATH OF FRESH AIR: A TACTICAL SWITCH – A Post Mortem of Wigan Athletic 3 Blackburn Rovers 3

What a breath of fresh air ! At last a major tactical switch from Roberto Martinez. Let’s not get too giddy about it – once again the result did not go Wigan’s way – but how refreshing it was to see an exciting new system put in place.

Playing three centre halves makes good sense, knowing how fragile Wigan’s centre of defence has been over recent seasons. What a shame that in the opening minutes they did not quite gel and it led to Blackburn’s opening goal. The wing backs – Stam and Jones – were probably our best players on the day and created opportunities from their wide play. That Wigan did not win is down to a bizarre goal with a player dribbling the ball in directly from a corner (have you ever seen that happen before?) and a moment of panic in the 7th minute of added time (6 minutes had been allocated). How unlucky can you get?

A run through of the goals:

0-1 Hesitancy from Gary Caldwell leads to Yakubu lobbing Al Habsi. Caldwell and Gohouri get in each other’s way trying to clear on the goal line. Visitors ahead after a minute.

1-1 Opportunist goal from Jordi Gomez after 7 minutes, with Robinson not reacting to a shot at his near post.

2-1 A well taken header from a Jones corner by the unmarked Gary Caldwell in the 31st minute.

2-2 David Dunn sent off for his second yellow card after 48 minutes. 11 minutes later we get a bizarre goal, Pedersen dribbling into the box, then crossing, directly from a corner kick. Al Habsi cannot hold the ball and Hoilett scores.

3-2 Opportunist goal after 88 minutes from Albert Crusat after a head down by Hugo Rodallega. Robinson at fault.

3-3 In the 97th minute goalkeeper Robinson goes up for the last chance of the game. As the ball comes to him he is recklessly kicked in the head by David Jones. Penalty well taken by Yakubu.

Wigan’s superiority in the game was such that they had 26 shots on goal (6 on target), Blackburn having 9 (3 on target). All in all a heartening display leaving lots of optimism for the future.

Let’s hope our luck will change!

Player Ratings

Ali Al Habsi: 7 – Hard to fault him with not dealing well with Pedersen’s illegal cross that led to Blackburn’s second goal. Otherwise as good as ever. One of the Premier League’s top ‘keepers.

Steve Gohouri: 6.5 – One of his better displays, including a goal-saving block on Yakubu. However, he or Caldwell could have kept Yakubu’s first goal out with better coordination. The right hand centre back in a block of three is probably his best position.

Gary Caldwell: 6 – His captain’s goal from Jones’ corner was inspirational. Not on his best form at the moment. The first goal was symptomatic of his loss of confidence. He probably bears the burden of poor results as captain. Let’s get behind him because he can help save our season. See Gohouri comment above regarding first Blackburn goal.

Maynor Figueroa: 6.5 – Did well in his position of left centre back in a block of three. Although he can make mistakes at times, his stats over the season so far rate him highly in terms of tackles won and interceptions made.

Ronnie Stam: 8 – His best performance since the win at Tottenham last year. Wing back is his natural position. Played with verve and determination.

David Jones: 7.5 – What a shame he lost his self discipline and gave away the penalty. Played a good game at left wing back. It could be his best position, if not one he would prefer

James McCarthy: 7 – Worked hard as always. Excellent in the tackle and in intercepting, rarely wastes the ball. One feels there is more to come but this was a good performance. A player of huge potential.

Mohammed Diame: 7 – A quality performer. Playing for Senegal has helped his confidence. A complete player, with the ability to slot in easily to a top four team. Let’s hope he signs a new contract.

Victor Moses: 6.5 – Once again looked dangerous, but faded out a little in the second half. His role needs more definition in this new system. He is not yet a clinical finisher. Potentially brilliant, but young and maturing.

Gomez: 6.5 – The new system put him closer to the action. A very well taken goal. The concept of a left footer shooting from the right forms a big part of Martinez’s strategy. Capable of scoring more goals.

Conor Sammon: 6 – Worked hard on the morsels he was fed. Could not be faulted for effort or technique. What a lonely role a Latics’ centre forward has!

Subs:

Hugo Rodallega: 7- Looked comfortable in his more central role. Really unlucky with a good effort from Jones’ cross. Put him in there as the second striker with a big man and see the difference.

Albert Crusat: 7 – Took his goal superbly and linked up well on the left. If played in his natural left wing role he can provide lots of quality crosses for our central striker(s).

James McArthur – Came on too late to comment, but a good squad player with more to come.

A share of the morsels or (another) nail in a coffin? Wigan – Blackburn Preview

For the past couple of seasons both Wigan Athletic and Blackburn Rovers have been stuck in dog-eat-dog relegation fights. Somehow, each has prevailed — but things are not looking good for either at the moment. When you are so hungry you sometimes have to settle for any morsels you can get. Odds are the two struggling teams will share points on Saturday. A loss for either would represent another nail in its coffin.

In order to survive relegation, a team needs to average around a point per game over the course of the season, although fourth-from-bottom Wolves needed 40 to stay up last year — an exceptional year. Wigan currently sit on 5 points, while Blackburn have one more, from 11 fixture. Two consecutive wins for either team would bring them within striking distance of the point per match relegation barometer.

So what to expect on Saturday? It will largely depend on whether either team is bold enough to go out and grab those three points or if the fear of losing will paralyze them. This columnist will continue to advocate the former approach for Wigan. A positive approach would be to start with at least three front players. In the Martinez system, this means a centre forward and two wide players. If Martinez is unwilling to adapt this tactical system to accommodate two central strikers, one would hope that two genuine wide players would be employed. Fine player as he can be, Hugo Rodallega is no left winger. The mistake of playing James McCarthy, a central midfield player, in a wide position against Bolton needs to be avoided. We have Moses, Crusat and Maloney for the wide positions. The centre forward position is up for grabs. Di Santo has proved to be a good target man and has scored spectacular goals, but one still lacks the belief that he can put himself into positions where it hurts, to get the tap-ins and scrappy goals typical of a top class central striker. Four of Wigan’s seven goals this season have come from shots outside the box, two more were penalties. The need for someone to latch onto those crosses, rebounds and deflections is crying out. Latics have the worst striking rate in the league with one goal per 17 attempts. Rodallega can do that but seems to be suffering a crisis of confidence. Being played on the left wing or as a lone forward with minimal support has not helped. Sammon remains a largely unknown quantity, not having had sufficient game time to prove himself. One recalls his opportunist goal that helped to turn the relegation match with West Ham last year, showing that there is definite potential. The midfield trio is likely to consist of Watson, Diame and Jones, but James McCarthy will probably appear at some point. In defence Gary Caldwell will return to replace the suspended Antolin Alcaraz.

Like Wigan, Blackburn can complain that luck (including refereeing decisions) has not favoured them this season. Again like Wigan, they have better players than their position suggest. However, they have only won two out of their last eighteen away matches in the Premier League. They have kept a clean sheet in only one game from twenty four. They are clearly beatable. Let’s keep an eye on the giant Chris Samba from set pieces and keep our concentration at the back and up front. More than anything else let’s go in with an aggressive, not passive, approach. A relatively bold team selection would send a message to the opposition that we mean business.

Prediction: draw or close win for Latics. Keep the faith!

On probation: Latics quarter-season report card

Technically, we’re one and a half matches late for a quarter-season analysis. Like most Latics supporters, I tend to need a few days to recover from the latest loss. Fulham and Wolves took a bit longer than usual. But along came the international break, allowing me the space and time to cycle through all five stages of grief — denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance — and a new one, faith-based optimism. Warning: this final stage may set you up for another round of the previous. But what if it doesn’t?

I’ll stop short of predicting a turning point in our season this Saturday against Blackburn, as I’ve made that mistake before. But it certainly seems an appropriate time to look back at our disastrous start and assess the individuals involved in it. First, we’ve averaged each player’s match performance ratings this season (which are admittedly subjective and only based on those given by Los Three Amigos writers, but serve as an interesting starting point for discussion). There are some surprises in there, but all interesting and insightful. For instance, defying all emotion, the struggling Gary Caldwell scores the same as reliable Emmerson Boyce. But while Emmerson has been steady and Gary Caldwell poor of late, it was the latter that scored highest (8) points in matches against Swansea and Newcastle. We try to make sense of it all below:

Player Ratings

Ali Al-Habsi: 7.1 — With Moses, our best regular performer. His score would have been higher but for the costly mistake against Norwich on day one, which cost the team 2 points, and probably cost Ali at least 0.2 in this assessment.

Emmerson Boyce: 6.2 — Our most consistent defender, the only one we seem to be able to rely on. He’s one of the few players who seems to be improving as the season goes along. Had a tough day at Villa but otherwise 6s and 7s.

Gary Caldwell: 6.2 — On the whole has looked slow and past it. But he had a couple cracking games, versus Swansea and Newcastle away, defending well and displaying the qualities you look for in a captain. A lot of fans have made him something of a scapegoat, but Roberto has asked a lot of him. So far, he’s had Lopez, Gohouri, Boyce, Alcaraz and Figueroa partner him — five players in 11 matches. The central defensive partnership is the most important on the field and has been completely disrupted. It is telling that his best performances came with Alcaraz/Boyce at Swansea, and then Alcaraz at Newcastle.

Antolin Alcaraz: 6 — Missed the opening part of the season to injury and will miss the next three matches for spitting at an opponent. Started poorly against Bolton, looked good in a couple, then brought shame on himself and the club with the spitting incident at Molineaux. A shame, since he’s the club’s best centre back.

Maynor Figueroa: 6.2 — Was given a few generous ratings when filling in at centre back. Has looked low on confidence recently, his attacking is better than his defending and goals often start down his side. Recently admitted to an Honduran newspaper that he is not in a good moment of form.

Ronnie Stam: 6 — Largely limited to substitute appearances, has done reasonably well when he has come on, but isn’t the solution. Not good enough going forward to be a winger, not good enough at defending to be a right back.

Patrick Van Aanholt: 7 — Was excellent against Everton when Maynor Figueroa was pushed inside, but has since featured very little.

Adrian Lopez: 4.75 — Latics’ lowest rated performer largely thanks to a nightmare against Norwich on opening day. Looks uncomfortable whenever he plays.

Steve Gohouri: 5 — A bit of a nightmare season for him. Sent off trying to mark Gareth Bale, then gave away the crucial goal against Bolton on his return, and looked wobbly at centre half. He’ll need to improve if he remains there throughout Alcaraz’s suspension.

Ben Watson: 6.7 — Consistent. Latics problems have not been in the midfield passing department. Truly masterful against Newcastle — my favourite performance of anyone in a Wigan shirt this season — but otherwise in the 6 and 7s. The question still lingers: is he best-suited to that deep midfield role?  If he tackles like he did at St. James Park yes, if not, no.

Mo Diame: 6.7 — Started slowly but has grown into the season, scored a couple very well taken goals, and looks our best midfielder.

James McCarthy: 5.5 — We expect more. Was probably playing with niggles in the early part of the season, before getting more seriously injured and losing his place to Dave Jones. Lets hope the spell on the sidelines has allowed him to heal. His performances were a catalyst in the team’s turnaround last year, we’ll hope he can do the same this time around.

Dave Jones: 6.9 — Highest-rated midfielder, although he has played fewer matches than the others. He has injected energy and intelligence into the midfield, with four of his five performances 7s.

Jordi Gomez: 6.5 — Started the season well, with an excellent performance at Swansea. But eventually lost his place and hasn’t been seen since.

James McArthur: 5.9 — Hasn’t let the team down in his substitute appearances, but also hasn’t provided much that the other midfielders at the club didn’t already.

Victor Moses: 7.1 — If he’d scored a few goals by now we’d be raving about him. (We’d also not be bottom of the league). His dribbling, pace and strength are unplayable. But his final pass, cross or shot lets him down every time. Is too young and raw to be playing such a crucial role at the club, though he has been extremely unlucky, hitting the post about 4-5 times.

Albert Crusat: 6.4 — Has looked lively in his five appearances, good pace and touch, but needs someone to get on the end of his crosses. Doesn’t seem direct enough to score himself.

Shaun Maloney: 7.5 — His rating is based on a cameo at Villa Park, during which he immediately changed the way the team attacked. Other appearances have been so brief they went unrated. Would like to see more of him.

Hugo Rodallega: 5.9 — Has gotten worse and worse. Desperately needs a goal, but chances won’t come easier than the one he missed at Wolves last week. Are contract talks affecting his form? Frustrating to watch at the moment.

Franco Di Santo: 6.8 — Has played well this season as the lone frontman, but all three goals have come from deflections, and he never seems to be in the right place at the right time. Would probably gel very well with Hugo in a 4-4-2, but we know that’s probably not going to happen.

Conor Sammon: 6 —  10 minutes here and 10 minutes there, hard to judge him. But he certainly deserves his chance. His pace, energy and heart lift the stadium when he comes on.

Conclusions

The exercise has confirmed the obvious. Our defense has been unsettled and inconsistent. The club’s goalscorer is having a bad season. And the man we were banking on to match Charles N’Zogbia’s contribution has played well, but not produced the numbers the Frenchman did. Last season, Hugo and Charlie shared the burden of scoring our goals. But neither Hugo nor Victor Moses has scored this season. Sure, the defense has not played well — but by far the bigger concern is at the other end of the pitch.

Goals conceded, per match, this season: 1.8

Goals conceded, per match, last season: 1.6

Goals scored, per match, this season: 0.63

Goals scored, per match, last season: 1.05