The stats of goalscoring at Latics

Posted by JJ (Tony) in Specials and tagged with , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

“One of our forward-thinking players is going to have to stick the ball into the back of the net and that’s the key to it.”

So said Malky Mackay after the Leeds match where Latics had 60% of possession and 19 efforts on goal without scoring.

But in these days of increased use of data in football, did Mackay bear in mind the stats when picking his starting strikers? Has he looked at the performance records of the players he has at his disposal?

Goalscoring stats can be misleading. So often they are quoted as appearances per goal, which can be so unfair on a player largely used as an impact substitute. How can we compare the record of a player coming on in the 85th minute with one who has played the full 90? When we calculate a stat of appearances per goal we should also take into account at the ratio of starts to substitute appearances to get a true picture of player performance. Perhaps a more reliable indicator is starts per goal, but what about a player like Callum McManaman who would rarely complete the full 90 minutes?

However, these stats together can help us get a picture of the player’s goalscoring capabilities. Moreover looking at the player’s past performance stats can give us an overview on their current performance.

Compiling stats is dependent on a reliable source. The data that follows was compiled using player performance information from www.soccerbase.com . It is based on appearances in league and cup.

Looking at the main strikers currently available to Mackay:

Goals1

The raw stats suggest that Mackay chose the two players with the least probability of scoring against Leeds, Marc-Antoine Fortune and James McClean. However, until his recent conversion to central striker McClean has been on the left wing, where it is harder to score goals, so the stats should be interpreted carefully. The career stats suggest that the pairing with the most likelihood of scoring goals is that of Leon Clarke and Billy Mckay.

The more senior Latics supporters will remember the lethal goalscoring partnership of Harry Lyon and Bert Llewellyn. From 1965-68 Llewellyn scored 96 goals in 115 appearances for Wigan. Lyon remains the club’s leading all-time goalscorer with 273 to his name in his stay from 1962-70.

More recently the most memorable pairing is probably that of Nathan Ellington and Jason Roberts, whose stats show that each of them needed only just over two starts per goal.

In the Premier League days the partnership of Emile Heskey and Amr Zaki was one the best. Heskey was never a natural goalscorer but he created the space for Zaki. The result was the Egyptian scoring 11 goals in 24 starts.

In the Premier League era, Henri Camara was Wigan’s most consistent goalscorer. Taking a look at the stats of strikers who have now left Latics gives considerable insight:

GOALSOLD

The case of Nouha Dicko stands out. Deemed not wanted by the club, but his goalscoring record for Wolves has been outstanding. Dicko never started in a league game for Latics.

The sad stays of such as Conor Sammon and Jason Scotland are reflected in the difference between their Latics stats and those of their careers. The simple explanation would be that they were not good enough for the Premier League. But then again, is Dicko good enough for the Championship?

Andy Delort and Oriol Riera are back to scoring goals again in their home countries following frustrating stays at Wigan. Given the downsizing at the club, even if the miracle happens and relegation is avoided, it is unlikely they will return.

Mackay is now talking about solving his goalscoring problem through the loan market. This must feel like a kick in the teeth for such players as Billy Mckay and Martyn Waghorn who have shown in the past that they have the ability to be in the right place at the right time as far as goalscoring is concerned.

The coaching and management at the club continues to ostracise players. It has been far too apparent over the past couple of years that HR skills are sorely lacking.

Mark Twain once said “Facts are more stubborn things, but statistics are pliable”. As outsiders we are not privy to the real facts about what is happening at the club during the Mackay era. But pliable as statistics might be there is no getting away from the woeful record the Scot has had since he took over.

In a season where Latics have scored only 32 goals in 36 league games, one begins to wonder where the next goal will come from. It is a sad result of the mismanagement of the striking talent that the club has had and continues to squander.

Getting the best out of the strike force

Posted by JJ (Tony) in Reflections and tagged with , , , , ,
Will Billy Mckay go the same way as his predecessors, Delort and Riera? Photo courtesy of BBC Sport.,

Will Billy Mckay go the same way as his predecessors, Delort and Riera?
Photo courtesy of BBC Sport.,

When the lineup was announced prior to the Leeds match on Saturday it was a sadly depressing moment. The mood had been positive and people had started to “Believe” again. But a look at the team sheet was enough to send many of us into despair. How can you keep faith in a manager who just does not seem to realize that some things just do not work?

The dampener on the proceedings was the selection of a strike force of Marc-Antoine Fortune and James McClean.

This is not to suggest that the two players do not have their merits.

Despite scoring only one league goal in 24 appearances the controversial MAF continues to get his place in the team. His holding up of the ball, commitment and willingness to sacrifice for the team make him a good team player. He has played under three managers at Wigan, all of whom have appreciated his attributes. In fact since signing in summer 2013 he has made 35 league starts and 25 appearances off the bench, scoring 5 goals.

McClean is on his way to be being voted “Player of the Season”. Fans have been impressed by his willingness to run himself into the ground for the cause, in a season when so many of his teammates have not shown that level of desire and commitment. Malky Mackay clearly believes he can become a bona fide central striker, through his speed, physicality, a powerful left foot and willingness to run at defences. As a left winger he has always been a committed team player, so often running back to help out his left full back. He is the club’s top scorer with six goals.

However, McClean has always had his critics. They will say he lacks the “trickery skills” that the best wingers possess, that he runs around like a headless chicken, not lifting his head, not providing the level of assists to be expected of an experienced Premier League practitioner. As a central striker he is too often caught offside and does not make the kind kinds of runs off the ball that are needed.

The Derry-raised forward deserves commendation for his commitment and enthusiasm to help the cause. He is the leading scorer with 6 goals this season, but as a central striker he has a lot to learn.On Saturday he was to be switched to the left flank during the course of the game.

Neither Fortune nor McClean are what might be called “natural strikers”. Those are the kinds of players who are in the right place at the right time to get the tap-ins to those balls fizzing across the box. Moreover their combined goalscoring records do not suggest they are going to do so.

The likelihood is that neither will be at the club at the end of the season. Fortune is now 33 and it would be a surprise if he were given a further contract. According to reports, McClean is one of the highest wage earners at the club (some suggest he is on £30k per week) and is likely to be released whether or not Latics stay in the Championship.

However, Latics do have other strikers. The big centre forward Leon Clarke – who has played for 14 clubs – is very much a “journeyman”. Nevertheless his physical presence has added to the forward line and his commitment has been excellent. Add to that a debut goal against Bournemouth.

Billy Mckay and Martyn Waghorn continue to be marginalized by Mackay.

Waghorn was Uwe Rosler’s first permanent signing and made a positive impact in the latter half of last season. Often played wide he nevertheless scored 5 goals in 15 appearances. Moreover he was a consummate team player, strong defensively, so often dropping back to defence to help his full back. During that period Waghorn was never a spectacular player, but one who fitted into the framework of the team, a very useful asset. Many of us expected Waghorn to continue to be one of Rosler’s mainstay players, but injury combined with the signing of new strikers pushed him out of contention. He has made just 6 starts this season, with 12 appearances as a substitute, scoring 2 goals.

Like Oriol Riera and Andy Delort who preceded him, Mckay is a proven goalscorer. He had scored 10 goals in 23 appearances for Inverness Caledonian Thistle this season, prior to joining Latics. In his two previous seasons in the SPL he scored 18 and 22 goals respectively.

Sadly it looks like Mckay is going the same way as his predecessors. The woeful treatment of Delort and Riera has continued with Mckay, albeit under a different manager. Is there a disconnect between recruiting and coaching at the club? Under Rosler good performance in training was paramount to his process of team selection. It continues with Mackay. Is Mckay not fit enough for the demands of the Championship or does he just not impress the coaching staff on the training field?

Mckay will have arrived with confidence, after banging in the goals in Scotland. But being given no starts and six appearances off the bench, his confidence will surely have already dissipated. Granted, he has failed to impress so far, but players need a run of games in the starting lineup to show their worth. Surely he must soon be given that opportunity?

Since Malky Mackay’s arrival Latics have not won a single home game, drawing two and losing eight. They have only scored 5 goals in those 10 matches at the DW Stadium.

Given his woeful record, it is a wonder that Mackay continues to be employed by the club. But it looks like he will continue at least until the end of the season.

In the meantime his coaching staff need to take a long hard look at themselves to explain how so many players with genuine talent have fallen by the wayside this season. It is their role to help players adjust, to make them into effective performers at the appropriate level.

Let’s hope that Mckay does not get consigned to the same level of mismanagement as Delort and Riera.

Believing again with Malky and Sharpy

Posted by JJ (Tony) in Reflections and tagged with , , , ,
Photo courtesy of fansonline.net

e Photo courtesy of fansonline.net

Situations can change quickly in the football world.

Three weeks ago I published an article “Can we believe under Mackay?” Latics had lost badly at Nottingham Forest and Malky Mackay’s record at Wigan was W1 D3 L10. Moreover the club seemed to be drifting with its talismanic leader, Dave Whelan, nowhere in sight. It was a club where leadership appeared noticeably absent. “Believing” was not easy.

The weekend later Latics did inspire some momentary confidence with a 1-0 win at Reading. There were two home games coming up, so the more optimistic of supporters raised their hopes that it could be the start of a revival, although the battle-hardened contingent warned us to beware of a false dawn. The darksiders proved to be right as Latics lost to both Charlton and Cardiff. A failure to get three points in the next match at Blackpool would nail the relegation coffin for Latics, psychologically of not mathematically.

The 3-1 win at Bloomfield Road was certainly a tonic, but unsettling rumours were starting to spread about the club being sold to Thai buyers. Still no word from Whelan. Moreover the next match was away at Norwich, who had won their last six games and were challenging for promotion.

Within the space of a few days the future suddenly seems much brighter. DW stepped down as chairman, but made it clear that the Whelan family and Chief Executive Jonathan Jackson would continue to run the club. There would be no sell-off. Fans were debating the idea of Whelan’s 23 year old grandson, David Sharpe, taking over as chairman although the more savvy pointed out that Jackson was the pillar upon which the near future of the club would largely rest.

The 1-0 win at Norwich, gained with just 32% possession, was precisely the kind of performance that many of us expected when Mackay was appointed. A gritty, backs to the wall display, based on strong defence and a moment’s inspiration from the excellent Kim Bo Kyung. Sharpe will surely have enjoyed overseeing a hard fought victory on receiving the reins from his grandfather.

The mood is much more positive among the fans now. The team has won two consecutive games for the first time this season and people are seriously thinking whether they can once more “Believe”. The manager remains unpopular and Sharpe has a hard act to follow as future chairman, but there is at least something to look forward to now.

The pundits tell us that Mackay’s current record of W4 D3 L12 – a winning percentage of 21% – lifts him above the level of being statistically the club’s least successful manager. He has certainly transformed things since his arrival. Not one of Uwe Rosler’s ten signings started the game at Norwich and only four of the eleven have contracts at Wigan beyond summer. At last he has succeeded into motivating the players to wear the Wigan Athletic jersey with pride, willing to give their all on the pitch.

But there is a hard road ahead for both Mackay and Sharpe.

After those consecutive wins the manager has regained some degree of credibility. However, he has incredibly still not won a match at the DW Stadium. He will be anxious to notch up his first against Leeds tomorrow. Can he lift his players to the same levels of energy and passion that they showed at Blackpool and Norwich? It will be a challenge to do so for the third time in a week.

David Sharpe has been active at the club for over a year now. He worked with Mackay on the January clear-out and is likely continue to support the manager at least until the end of the season. Questions remain whether relegation can be avoided and if Mackay is the right manager for Latics in the long term.

However, there suddenly seems much more purpose at the club, following Dave Whelan’s announcements and a couple of good results.

Let’s hope we can “Believe” in the Malky-Sharpy partnership.

 

Bowing out gracefully

Posted by JJ (Tony) in Reflections and tagged with , , ,

 

“Dave Whelan: Racism row forced me to quit.”

So said the Daily Express headline yesterday. Sadly another example of gutter journalism, of which we have seen far too much over recent months in the national press.

That newspaper, along with others, was once more ready to condemn a man who has done so much for English football over the years.

They neglected to mention his record as a chairman over the past two decades:

  • Bought the club in February 1995. Finished in 14th place in Division 3. Average attendance for 1994-95 season was 1,748.
  • Summer 1995 – arrival of The Three Amigos – Diaz, Martinez and Seba.
  • Division 3 champions in 1996-97.
  • Plans for new stadium announced in 1997.
  • Beat Millwall 1-0 at Wembley to win Auto Windscreens Shield in 1999.
  • JJB stadium inaugurated in August 1999 with a friendly against Manchester United.
  • Division 2 champions 2002-03.
  • Won promotion to the Premier League in 2004-05.
  • Reached League Cup final in 2005-06, finishing 10th in Premier League, average attendance 20,609.
  • Eight seasons in the Premier League from 2005-2013. .
  • Second half of 2011-12 season rally with first win against Manchester United and away victories at Liverpool and Arsenal –all won on merit.
  • FA Cup Semi-Finals  in consecutive seasons 2012-2014.
  • FA Cup winners in May 2013.
  • Community Shield appearance in August 2013.
  • Group stages of the Europa League with trips to Belgium, Russia and Slovenia in 2013-14 – also reaching FA Cup semi final and championship playoffs.

Listening to Whelan’s interview by the club brought tears to the eyes. He even brought up the matter of the broken leg a couple of times. It contrasts with that on Sky Sports where the interviewer was clearly intent on treading the beaten path of the racism saga.

However, during that Sky interview Whelan was able to blow away much of the recent uncertainty about the club’s future by saying:

“Contrary to some suggestions, there are no plans to sell the club, which will remain in family hands and I have every confidence that (grandson) David (Sharpe), along with chief executive Jonathan Jackson, will lead us forwards with wisdom.”

Following in the steps of a Wigan icon like Dave Whelan would be hard for anyone, let alone a 23 year old like Sharpe. However, the young man got himself off to a good start by handling his interview with Sky with considerable aplomb.

It is the end of an era.

Dave Whelan has gone out as gracefully as he could, given the pressure from the national media.

He leaves behind a remarkable legacy, the like of which was unimaginable two decades ago.

Kim Bo and Jordi

Posted by JJ (Tony) in Player profiles and tagged with

 

James McClean breaks down the left of the box. His cross bobbles on the rutted surface, looking like it is going out of play. But in comes Jermaine Pennant to catch the ball before it goes out of play. His pass allows Kim Bo Kyung a simple tap-in.

It was to prove to be a very important goal because it shattered Blackpool’s brittle confidence to give Malky Mackay’s Latics a lifeline, at least for the time being. But even more than that what was Kim Bo doing a yard away from the goal line? How many times this season has a Wigan central midfield player got himself so far into the opposition penalty box this season from open play? If they had done it more often the Latics goal tally would never have been so low. But in a team that is down on its knees and worried about leaking goals, the midfield players have tended to hang back to support a shaky defence.

Kim Bo is not the best of tacklers, but he has a sublime left foot and his style is reminiscent of Jordi Gomez. Having previously been described as “lightweight” and “a player who goes down too easily” by some at Cardiff, he surprised Bluebirds supporters with the quality and endeavour of his play against them last week. In fact he has been Latics’ most consistent performer in recent games.

When Mackay signed Kim Bo after his contract at Cardiff had been cancelled by mutual consent, there was by no means an overjoyed reaction by most Wigan fans. Some looked on him as never having made the grade in Wales and Latics were taking another Cardiff cast-off, following on the heels of the unpopular Don Cowie and Andrew Taylor. Some cynics even suggested Mackay had signed the Korean to help his case with the FA, referring to a particular email that had seemed to be referring to Kim Bo.

There are certainly similarities in his style of play to that of Gomez. Like the Spaniard, Kim Bo plays best in the centre of midfield, rather than being dispatched to the wing where he does not receive enough possession. He is the type of creative midfielder that Latics have lacked since Gomez left.

One wonders if Mackay reads the Wigan Athletic fan sites, message boards and social media. Fans had been asking for twin strikers for months after seeing the demise of Andy Delort and Oriel Riera in the lone centre forward role. Mackay has opted for a bold 4-4-2 formation, with only one “ball winner” in central midfield. With injuries to Chris Herd and William Kvist, Mackay put Kim Bo alongside James Perch in central midfield. Granted Kim Bo is not the best of tacklers, but he cannot be faulted for his workrate and commitment.

Mackay will also have appeased many supporters by leaving Cowie and Taylor out of the side, following a series of mediocre performances.

However, one good result against a team as poor as Blackpool does not mean that the outlook is much rosier. There are some difficult games coming up and Mackay will need to tweak his formation as the fixtures start to rain in.

The starting lineup against Blackpool was attacking, at least on paper. But many fans would have had a sense of foreboding in seeing a central partnership of McClean and the frustrating Marc-Antoine Fortune. The big man from Cayenne has survived three managers now at Wigan and regularly appears in the starting lineup despite scoring just one goal in 22 league appearances this season.

The visit to Carrow Road on Wednesday is not going to be easy. Latics have a poor record at Norwich and the Canaries are one of the in-form teams at the moment, with a 2-0 victory in the East Anglian derby against Ipswich on Sunday.

It will be interesting to see if Mackay will continue with his attacking lineup. It would not be a big surprise to see him put in an extra holding midfielder in place of a forward.

But let’s hope that Kim Bo Kyung is played in the central midfield position where he needs to be to show his true range of talents.