The stats of goalscoring at Latics

“One of our forward-thinking players is going to have to stick the ball into the back of the net and that’s the key to it.”

So said Malky Mackay after the Leeds match where Latics had 60% of possession and 19 efforts on goal without scoring.

But in these days of increased use of data in football, did Mackay bear in mind the stats when picking his starting strikers? Has he looked at the performance records of the players he has at his disposal?

Goalscoring stats can be misleading. So often they are quoted as appearances per goal, which can be so unfair on a player largely used as an impact substitute. How can we compare the record of a player coming on in the 85th minute with one who has played the full 90? When we calculate a stat of appearances per goal we should also take into account at the ratio of starts to substitute appearances to get a true picture of player performance. Perhaps a more reliable indicator is starts per goal, but what about a player like Callum McManaman who would rarely complete the full 90 minutes?

However, these stats together can help us get a picture of the player’s goalscoring capabilities. Moreover looking at the player’s past performance stats can give us an overview on their current performance.

Compiling stats is dependent on a reliable source. The data that follows was compiled using player performance information from www.soccerbase.com . It is based on appearances in league and cup.

Looking at the main strikers currently available to Mackay:

Goals1

The raw stats suggest that Mackay chose the two players with the least probability of scoring against Leeds, Marc-Antoine Fortune and James McClean. However, until his recent conversion to central striker McClean has been on the left wing, where it is harder to score goals, so the stats should be interpreted carefully. The career stats suggest that the pairing with the most likelihood of scoring goals is that of Leon Clarke and Billy Mckay.

The more senior Latics supporters will remember the lethal goalscoring partnership of Harry Lyon and Bert Llewellyn. From 1965-68 Llewellyn scored 96 goals in 115 appearances for Wigan. Lyon remains the club’s leading all-time goalscorer with 273 to his name in his stay from 1962-70.

More recently the most memorable pairing is probably that of Nathan Ellington and Jason Roberts, whose stats show that each of them needed only just over two starts per goal.

In the Premier League days the partnership of Emile Heskey and Amr Zaki was one the best. Heskey was never a natural goalscorer but he created the space for Zaki. The result was the Egyptian scoring 11 goals in 24 starts.

In the Premier League era, Henri Camara was Wigan’s most consistent goalscorer. Taking a look at the stats of strikers who have now left Latics gives considerable insight:

GOALSOLD

The case of Nouha Dicko stands out. Deemed not wanted by the club, but his goalscoring record for Wolves has been outstanding. Dicko never started in a league game for Latics.

The sad stays of such as Conor Sammon and Jason Scotland are reflected in the difference between their Latics stats and those of their careers. The simple explanation would be that they were not good enough for the Premier League. But then again, is Dicko good enough for the Championship?

Andy Delort and Oriol Riera are back to scoring goals again in their home countries following frustrating stays at Wigan. Given the downsizing at the club, even if the miracle happens and relegation is avoided, it is unlikely they will return.

Mackay is now talking about solving his goalscoring problem through the loan market. This must feel like a kick in the teeth for such players as Billy Mckay and Martyn Waghorn who have shown in the past that they have the ability to be in the right place at the right time as far as goalscoring is concerned.

The coaching and management at the club continues to ostracise players. It has been far too apparent over the past couple of years that HR skills are sorely lacking.

Mark Twain once said “Facts are more stubborn things, but statistics are pliable”. As outsiders we are not privy to the real facts about what is happening at the club during the Mackay era. But pliable as statistics might be there is no getting away from the woeful record the Scot has had since he took over.

In a season where Latics have scored only 32 goals in 36 league games, one begins to wonder where the next goal will come from. It is a sad result of the mismanagement of the striking talent that the club has had and continues to squander.

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Latics can win their next penalty shootout

Penalty

Can one single incident define a club’s season?

Blackpool fans might well cite Matt Gilks’ superb save from Martyn Waghorn’s penalty on Saturday as the event that saved them from relegation. Latics had been well on top in that first 20 minutes and if they had scored the Tangerines might well have fallen apart. Waghorn did not hit his penalty badly, but the goalkeeper guessed right and made a spectacular save.

Latics have been awarded 7 penalties in the Championship this season, of which they have scored 4, each taken by a different player. Grant Holt, Shaun Maloney, Ben Watson and Jordi Gomez were the successful scorers. Gomez has had two penalties saved, against Yeovil and Bolton. The opposition have converted 5 out of the 8 penalties they have received.

It was a surprise to many of us when Waghorn took the penalty against Blackpool. Despite his 1 in 3 conversion rate in the league this season, Gomez has a 100% record in cup competitions. He scored one in the Europa League and two famous ones – at the Etihad and Wembley – in the FA Cup. Having scored Latics’ last penalty in the pressure cauldron of an FA Cup semi-final it was expected that Gomez would take the spot kick against Blackpool. Moreover they also had Shaun Maloney who had previously been successful in converting penalties. Waghorn did have previous success as a penalty taker, scoring 2 out of 2 for Leicester City, but it was in the 2009-10 season. He had not taken penalties in competitive football since then.

The fateful penalty shoot-out in that Wembley semi-final continues to haunt Latics fans. If the likes of Holt, Maloney, Watson and even Waghorn had been at hand to join Gomez at the time, maybe Latics would have had a chance of beating Arsenal. But looking at the available players on the pitch at the time there was not much hope for optimism even before the kicks had started.

Should Latics reach a stage in the playoffs where penalties are going to decide the result are they going to be competitive? Uwe Rosler will surely bear this in mind with the players he has on the pitch in a game going into extra time. He will surely find time for his players to get ample penalty kick practice before the event.

Since the formation of the Premier League in 1992 the average conversion rate for penalties has been 85%. Less than 4% were missed, just over 11% saved.

During their eight seasons there Wigan Athletic received 28 penalties, of which they scored 22, a conversion rate of 79%. Ben Watson and Amr Zaki were Latics’ leading goalscorers through penalties, each scoring four. However, Watson also missed two, unlike the Egyptian who missed none and remains Latics most successful penalty taker in top flight competition. There were only two seasons when Latics received more penalties than they conceded, those being in the Steve Bruce era 2007-09. For the full stats see myfootballfacts.com

Of the current squad, in league and cup games, Maloney has converted 2 out of 2. Gomez has scored 7 out of 10, Watson 6 out of 9.

Gary Caldwell was the first to have a penalty saved at Wembley, but later stated that he had taken penalties before, even in the Champions League. The second taker was Jack Collison, whose shot was also saved. However, Collison had been successful earlier on in the season, scoring for West Ham in the 94th minute in a League Cup tie at Burnley.

Collison would not usually have a chance to take a penalty for the Hammers, as Mark Noble would usually take them. Noble has scored every penalty he has taken since 2009. Leighton Baines shares a similar record. However, Rickie Lambert has gone even better by scoring every single one of his 31 penalties in competitive matches for Southampton. Matt Le Tissier remains the most outstanding penalty taker in top flight English football in recent years, having missed only one of his 49 penalties.

Research into penalty shootouts in the World Cups, European Championship and Copa America reveals a success rate of around 87% for the first kick, 82% for the second, 79% for the third, 73% for the fourth and 80% for the fifth. See penaltyshootouts.co.uk for more details.

Clubs typically get an average of around four penalties in regular play per season and they are often taken by the same player. That is certainly the case for QPR, who have had exactly four, all converted by Charlie Austin.

However, the cases of other playoff contenders, Derby and Reading, differ. Referees have awarded Derby 11 penalties, of which they converted 7, but they have conceded only 2. They have used three penalty takers in Bryson, Martin and Russell. Reading have converted 7 of their 9 penalties, whereas the opposition have scored all 6 conceded. The Royals have used four penalty takers in Blackman, Le Fondre, Pogrebnyak and the unfortunate Sharp who missed his penalty against Latics.

Should Wigan Athletic get into a penalty shootout over the coming weeks it could well define their season. If Latics confirm their place in the playoffs then Rosler will surely give his players lots of practice at taking penalty kicks.

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