Caldwell set to shuffle his pack

“It was a capitulation. That capitulation cost us the league. I knew that night we were gone. It’s an absolutely great example of complacency. It’s a disease.”

The words of Alex Ferguson after his Manchester United side let the Premier League title slip through their fingers in 2011-12. He pinpointed a 4-4 draw with Everton in late April when his team had let a two goal lead slip away. A week later they went down 1-0 at Manchester City, who went on to win the title thanks to a goal in stoppage time in the final game against QPR.

One way in which Ferguson dealt with complacency was by not putting out the same line up in consecutive matches.

In 1980-81 Aston Villa won the First Division title using only 14 players, seven of whom were all present in the 42 league matches. But Ferguson’s views on complacency have clearly resounded in the ears of today’s football managers.

Gary Caldwell too rarely fields the same line up in consecutive matches. Part of his rationale is surely influenced by complacency issues, but he also wants to keep opposition managers guessing about his line ups. Last weekend against Bradford City he did keep the same line up, but he changed their shape, making it less easy for his opposite number, Phil Parkinson.

Caldwell is very much the modern day manager. Guessing his starting line ups is never easy. It is also hard to predict the shape his team is going to employ at the start of the game, which might nevertheless change as play progresses. We have become used to surprises.

Some prefer the kind of approach used by Ron Saunders in the early eighties at Villa. You could more or less predict the starting line-up and they played with the same shape, week in, week out. Complacency was not an issue.

However, times have changed. Managers often talk up the ability of the opposition they are due to play. They have them watched beforehand so that their strengths and weaknesses can be assessed. It can be viewed as guarding against complacency among the players, although there are fans who feel that Caldwell too frequently offers the opposition too much respect.

Rather than the fixed team shapes and the settled line ups of Saunders’ days, Caldwell will talk about building partnerships between players. Probably the most crucial of those as Latics approach the nine game run-in towards automatic promotion is that in the centre of defence.

Craig Morgan and Jason Pearce have formed such a partnership over the past months, to the effect that Latics have never lost a match when they have started together. Sadly Pearce has been out injured for the past two games. Pearce’s play complements that of Morgan. The whole is greater than the sum of its parts in this case.

If Pearce is to be unavailable this weekend, Caldwell will be anxious to find a suitable replacement. Chris McCann is the obvious candidate, with his cultured left footed passing from the back. However, McCann lacks the physicality of Pearce. Caldwell is therefore likely to add the physically imposing Donervon Daniels to make a trio with Morgan and McCann. Stephen Warnock is the obvious choice at left back, but the position on the right is up for grabs. Reece Wabara is the current incumbent, but is likely to face competition from the fit-again Kevin McNaughton and from Daniels if he does not play in central defence.

Caldwell has the choice of three holding midfielders in Sam Morsy, David Perkins and Max Power. When playing with a back four Caldwell will use Morsy in the “Busquets role”, with Perkins and Power pushed further forward. Operating 3-4-3 means leaving one of them out. Power has been one of Latics’ best players this season but his form has dipped of late. It would be no surprise to see him rested in one of the games over the Easter weekend.

Haris Vuckic’s well taken goal against Bradford City might have gained him a place in the starting eleven at Swindon. His most likely position is on the right side of the attack, although he can possibly be more effective in the centre of an attacking midfield trio in the 4-2-3-1 formation that Caldwell can favour. Like many other players over recent years at Wigan, Vuckic has struggled to claim a regular place despite his obvious talent. Up to this point the Slovenian has made only five starts in league games, with four appearances off the bench. Importantly Vuckic is the kind of player who can link midfield and attack. He also has a good left foot and is likely to score goals cutting inside from the right. His lack of playing time so far is a mystery, although he did go through a period of injury problems in the first half of the season. Meanwhile the unwanted, and largely untried, Billy McKay has now scored 11 goals for a Dundee United side who sit in unfamiliar territory at the foot of the SPL table.

In the meantime Michael Jacobs is back in light training, but Caldwell is going to have to wait another 2-3 weeks before he will be challenging for a first team place. For the weekend Caldwell will be able to choose between Ryan Colclough, Conor McAleny (if fit), Haris Vuckic and Yanic Wildschut to form the attack with Will Grigg in the lone centre forward position.

Craig Davies is fitter than he has been for some months, but his time on the field is limited by Caldwell’s unwillingness to start with twin strikers. Davies has had just seven starts in league games, with his last being in the home defeat to Blackpool in mid-December. He has made 17 appearances off the bench. Some have been critical of Davies’ form over the past months, but being used as a late substitute to either lead a late rally or to hold up the ball in high pressure situations to kill off games is not an easy task. However, should Grigg become unavailable, Davies would be a dependable stand-in.

Latics lie level on points in second place with Walsall, six points behind Burton Albion, and five points above fourth placed Gillingham. Less than three weeks ago Walsall sacked Sean O’Driscoll as manager, replacing him with Jon Whitney. They have since won their last three matches. Despite a defeat at Bradford a couple of weeks ago, Burton bounced back, winning their next two games. Their 4-0 away win at Port Vale on Saturday was impressive against a side with a strong home record.

Walsall’s next match is at Sheffield United on April 2, their Easter matches being postponed due to players absent on international duty. Only time will tell whether this will prove a blessing or a curse for the Saddlers. Should Latics win both matches over Easter then Walsall will be under pressure making up a six point gap. But should they fail to do so it would give the midland club with the upper hand.

Wigan Athletic’s recent performances have been less than impressive, but they have nevertheless continued to maintain an average of two points per game over the last six matches. Two wins in three days over Easter is a tall order and Caldwell will need to rotate his team to keep players fresh.

The bottom line is that, despite injuries, Caldwell retains a squad that is more than capable of gaining more points than their rivals in the run-in. But he will need to instil a mentality where players treat every game remaining as a cup final.

As Ferguson said, complacency is a disease to be avoided. Making small, but regular, rotations in the starting line-up will be a ploy that Caldwell can use to guard against it.

Morgan and Pearce – a formidable partnership in the centre of defence

MorganPearce

Jason Pearce and Craig Morgan celebrate the Welshman’s last minute winner against Gillingham. Photo courtesy of http://www.bbc.com

Who would have thought that a couple of experienced old pros who have largely plied their trade in the lower divisions could fit in so successfully to a team striving to play possession football?

Between them the 30 year old Craig Morgan and the 28 year old Jason Pearce have amassed a total of over 800 senior appearances in their careers. Last summer Gary Caldwell picked up Morgan for nothing at the end of his contract at Rotherham. Pearce was signed by Malky Mackay from Leeds United in January 2015 for a bargain fee in the region of £300,000.

The two have formed a formidable central defensive partnership for Wigan Athletic this season. In fact Latics have not lost a game when the two have started together in the centre of defence. Their differing styles tend to complement each other.

Pearce is seemingly fearless, a player of total commitment who will put his own body on the line for the team’s sake. He is strong in the air, rugged in the tackle and rarely wastes the ball. Morgan too is strong in the air and relies on his timing and positioning to cut out opposition attacks. Unlike most central defenders with type of his career background, Morgan resists the hoof and is a fine passer of the ball from defence.

Both players have had injury problems this season, the result being that they have only played in the same starting lineup 16 times of the 41 matches played. Sometimes they have played together in a conventional back four, on other occasions being joined by a third central defender. Morgan has made 31 appearances this season, with a red card received against Bury in the League Cup and 6 yellows. Pearce has made 25 appearances with just 3 yellows, a low ratio for a player with a physical approach, revealing a level of self-discipline and maturity.

Before the season started Caldwell had a difficult choice between the two as to whom he would name club captain. Morgan had been captain at Peterborough at the age of 23 and skippered Rotherham to promotion from League 1 to the Championship and then holding their place there last season. Pearce had also been captain at the age at 23 at Portsmouth, going on to lead Bournemouth and Leeds. In the end Caldwell chose Morgan as captain with Pearce as vice-captain.

Both players are leaders on the field of play and their partnership in the centre of defence has been critical in Latics’ rise to contention for an automatic promotion place in League 1. Pearce missed the last game at Colchester after being forced off by injury at half time in the previous match at the DW Stadium against Peterborough.

With just 10 games to go Caldwell will be hoping that the two can steer clear of injuries and suspensions for what remains of the season. Their joint presence is critical in Wigan’s quest for promotion.

 

Can Latics hold their nerve for automatic promotion?

In March 2014 Uwe Rosler’s Wigan Athletic team were challenging for a playoff place in the Championship division. During that month they went on to amass 14 points from their 7 games, losing only one by a 1-0 margin at QPR. They looked odds-on to reach that playoff place, which they did finally achieve, but not without a stutter as they picked up just 11 points from their last 9 matches.

Rosler’s team had peaked too early and just could not maintain their form over the final six weeks of the season. They put up spirited displays in the semi-final of the playoffs against QPR, but just could not show the kind of intensity they had shown a couple of months earlier.

Gary Caldwell’s team too has been peaking, going on a 14 game unbeaten run. Their last defeat was against Blackpool on December 12th. Have they peaked too early? Can they hold their nerve and get an automatic promotion place?

Burton Albion’s defeat at Bradford on Tuesday evening could well prove to be a turning point for what remains of the season. They still stand four points ahead of Wigan Athletic, but significantly they no longer have games in hand. After being so consistent for so long is there a chink in Burton’s armour? They have now only won one out of their last five matches.

The most optimistic of Wigan Athletic fans are now seriously talking about their team winning the division. Burton have some tricky fixtures coming up in the final 11 games of the season. Four of those are against teams currently in the top six promotion zone – Millwall (A), Latics (H), Barnsley (H) and Gillingham (H).

Other than having to play at Burton, Latics have to play just one other team from the current top six – Barnsley (H) on the last day of the season.

This current Wigan Athletic team is capable of beating any other team in team in League 1, Burton included. They are have the capability to go the remainder of the season unbeaten. But they are also capable of producing poor results against teams they would be expected to beat. In recent home games they have failed to beat struggling Oldham and Peterborough and a 1-1 draw at Crewe in late January was disappointing.  But it was the shock 1-0 home defeat to Blackpool in mid-December that sparked the surging run they are on at the moment.

In their last 6 league games Latics have won 3 and drawn 3, an average of 2 points per game. Of the other teams in the top six only Barnsley have done better with 13 points, followed by Millwall on 11 points, Burton on 8, Gillingham on 5 and Walsall on 3.

Looking at stats for games played up to this point  it looks like the teams gaining automatic promotion this season will need less points than has been the norm over the past decade. It has been the kind of season where teams are closer in level, where they can quickly climb up or abruptly slide down the table within half a dozen games. However, for Latics to gain automatic promotion they are likely to need at least 86 points. That would require an average of 2 points in each of the remaining eleven matches.

Tomorrow’s game at Colchester is another of those potential banana skins upon which Latics have slipped several times this season. In their last six games Colchester’s record is LDLDWL. They lie in bottom place ten points from safety and have won just three home games this season.

All teams tend to have injury problems at this time of year and Wigan Athletic are no exception. Michael Jacobs and Reece James have been out long term and are still recuperating. Jussi Jaaskelainen is likely to return following concussion received against Peterborough, but both Conor McAleny and Jason Pearce are doubtful for tomorrow.

Caldwell commented this week that  “Whilst it’s a big disappointment to have players out, it’s an opportunity for other players to come in and show what they can do. It’s up to those players who haven’t been playing but have been asking to play and wanting to play to be ready for the opportunities.”

One of those players the manager could be referring to is Kevin McNaughton, who completed a full 90 minutes for the development squad on Tuesday. The Scot may not start at Colchester but could come on later in the game. Haris Vuckic is also due to reappear at some stage.

In addition to potential injuries Caldwell is likely to lose Will Grigg to the Northern Ireland squad for their friendly matches on March 24 and 28. Craig Davies is the obvious replacement, although he has not completed a full game for a long time.

Now is the time for Latics to hold their nerve and let the other teams cut each other’s throats. A late season dip in form like that which happened to Rosler’s team is what they must guard against.

 

 

 

Warnock – a great signing for Latics

Warnock

The “New Era” recruitment team at Wigan Athletic already had an impressive record, but the announcement of the signing of Stephen Warnock is really the icing on the cake. Warnock turned 34 in December and his loan signing might be short term, but with over 200 career appearances at Premier League level he will surely have much to offer in League 1.

The long term injury to Reece James and a two game suspension  for Chris McCann left Gary Caldwell short of options at left back/left wing back. Against Peterborough on Saturday he moved Reece Wabara across from the right to play there, while McCann was rested on the bench.  The 22 year old Andy Kellett had been signed as the back-up left sided defender, but in most of his appearances he has been played further forward. Moreover Kellett has been dogged by injury. His last first team appearance was against Gillingham in early January.

Warnock was born in Ormskirk and has two caps for England. He came through the Liverpool youth system, going through loan spells at Bradford City and Coventry City when in his early twenties. He went on to make 40 Premier League appearances for Liverpool before moving on to Blackburn and Aston Villa, subsequently dropping down to the Championship in 2012 with a loan move to Bolton. He was then to move on to Leeds United before signing for Derby County in January 2015.

Warnock has made 30 appearances in the Championship for the Rams, but the arrival of a new manager in January has seen his first team opportunities become limited.

With James still injured and McCann serving a two match suspension we can expect Warnock to go straight in the team for the visit to Colchester on Saturday. Moreover his arrival gives Caldwell more flexibility in being able to use McCann in the centre of defence or midfield.

The performance on Saturday was surely affected by losing three players to injury by half time. Jussi Jaaskelainen and Jason Pearce are key players in the promotion push and Caldwell will be hoping they will be back for Saturday. He will also hope that Conor McAleny will be back soon, although he has an obvious replacement in Haris Vuckic. Kevin McNaughton is getting closer to full fitness and will surely challenge Reece Wabara and Donervon Daniels for the right back position over the coming weeks. A back four of McNaughton, Craig Morgan, Pearce and Warnock would rank among the most experienced and accomplished in the division.

When Michael Jacobs was in injured at Crewe at the end of January it looked like Latics would be short on creativity, although the signing of Ryan Colclough has certainly helped. However, Jacobs was one of the main driving forces in the new era side until his injury, one of the best attacking midfielders in the division.

The return of Jacobs, apparently still a couple of weeks away in terms of fitness, together with the advent of Warnock could be crucial in the bid for promotion.

Warnock is a terrific addition to the squad, albeit with just 11 league games to go.

A tough approach needed for Bury and Millwall

 

 

“They are the best team in the league. I know we have done well against them but they have recruited fantastically well. They are a very, very good team. Their subs’ bench is absolutely incredible. They are a top team and it’s one we can look forward too. I’m really looking forward to this week to get a game plan together to compete with them.”

It is the final sentence in David Flitcroft’s comments that is the important one. The Bury manager will surely have more tricks under his sleeve when his side visit the DW Stadium tomorrow. With two wins and a draw under his belt against Latics already this season, can he do it again? What tactics will he employ?

The likelihood is that Flitcroft’s main tactic will be to adopt a physical approach in an attempt to put Latics off their game.

The same can be expected from Millwall on Tuesday. Latics were mauled by the opposition players and their crowd at the New Den in a key relegation match in mid-April last season. It was early days in Gary Caldwell’s new managerial position and Millwall manager Keith Harris’ intimidatory tactics worked. The 2-0 victory to the Lions proved to make no difference in the long run, with both clubs being relegated.

Neither Bury at home, nor Millwall away, is a particularly comfortable fixture for Latics. The Lancashire derbies have their own special feel and the competition can be fierce. Playing away at Millwall is never going to be easy, given the fiercely partisan crowd. Bury have only won one of their past ten, but Millwall have won four out of the last six and are serious challengers for a playoff place.

Latics have not played at all well against Bury this season. The League Cup tie in mid-August was decided by a controversial penalty given against Craig Morgan, the Shakers winning 2-1. But Morgan was to have his revenge by getting a last minute equaliser at Gigg Lane in early October in a 2-2 draw. Wigan’s performance in the 4-0 FA Cup defeat at Gigg Lane in early November was woeful, although it did leave one wondering how interested they were in progressing further in the competition.

But the Wigan team that faced Bury in the first half of the season, during the gelling process with so many new players, is a different kettle of fish than the current one. Latics are second in the table, on an 11 game unbeaten run, scared of nobody.

The win at fellow promotion hopefuls, Walsall, pushed them above the midland team for the first time. Wigan were much the better team on the day, but only won the game in the closing minutes. Will Grigg missed a handful of clear opportunities. Had he scored at least one of them he could have out the game out of reach for the home side.  However, it must have been a bittersweet return to the Bescot Stadium for him with the home fans jeering his every touch. Grigg is a fine centre forward at League 1 level, but such profligacy cannot continue if Latics are to attain that automatic promotion spot.

A home win for Latics tomorrow is most likely, but they must be careful to avoid complacency. But then again they have good reason to make a big effort in retaliation for the bad results against Bury so far. Flitcroft claims a long injury list, but it remains to be seen what side he will put out tomorrow. One thing is for certain – Latics can expect a rough reception from the visitors.

The Millwall game is another against a promotion hopeful and will not be easy. The Lions are now in fifth place, but surprisingly their home record has been poor, having a record of W7 D2 L7, whereas away they have the second best stats in the division behind Walsall. But Neil Harris will surely once again rile up his players and his crowd to give Wigan a hard time.

Gary Caldwell has used 33 players this season, six of whom were on loan and have gone back to their parent clubs. Two players – Grant Holt and Richard O’Donnell – departed over the January transfer window. Four players are injured or in recuperation – Michael Jacobs, Reece James, Kevin McNaughton and Sanmi Odelusi.

But Caldwell has a squad that is the envy of the other League 1 managers. The ability to bring players off the bench of the quality of Craig Davies and Yanic Wildschut gives Caldwell that added factor that the other managers do not have.

Wigan Athletic have the quality to win the division. But much will depend on avoiding complacency and being willing to slug it out with teams like Bury and Millwall.

Neither match is easy. Both are winnable at a physical cost. It would be no surprise if Caldwell once more rotates his team or changes its shape in the next two games. A return of four points from the two would keep Latics on track. More would be even better.