Rosler is the man to take Latics forward

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What a difference results make. A couple of weeks ago Uwe Rosler was the flavour of the month and had almost universal support from the Latics faithful. But now after three disappointing performances dissent is becoming rife.

This is not unusual at a football club in England or any other part of the world. The manager is only as good as the team’s next performance and his time in the job is finite. If the results do not improve, he goes, as was the case with Owen Coyle at Wigan last year. But there are exceptions.

The long-term reigns of such as Ferguson and Wenger and their triumphs are well documented. You can add to that the likes of the unsung Dario Gradi and the miracles he worked at humble Crewe.  All three had enough support from their chairmen to be undeterred by the naysayers and snipers who would undermine most managers at football clubs.

So it was with Roberto Martinez at Wigan. Martinez had to shield all kinds of criticism from a hostile minority who were uncomfortable with him as manager. The criticism came forth in his early days as in charge and continued for four years. It was based on the team’s style of play, but if the results had been better would there have been so much dissatisfaction?

Martinez was courageous and strong in his beliefs about the way football should be played. He never let the naysayers sway him, although it must have been tough for him. He had taken over at a time of austerity within the club after Steve Bruce had done a fine job at stabilizing Latics’ position in the Premier League, but at a financial cost. His achievement in winning the FA Cup will be hard for any future Latics manager to emulate.

It was Dave Whelan’s spoken and unspoken support that gave Martinez the backing to go ahead and continue to do what he considered right. Martinez not only won the cup, but kept Latics in the elite league until a cruel injury situation proved his undoing and led to him moving on from the club.

Dave Whelan has made Wigan Athletic into a dream come true. Who could have dreamed twenty years ago that Latics would have a superb stadium and compete with teams that were household names? Whelan’s success has been through appointing the right man at the right time and giving him support. Without Paul Jewell, Steve Bruce and Roberto Martinez where would Latics be now?

But then again, Whelan also appointed Chris Hutchings and Owen Coyle, both of whom he dispatched when he realized he had made the wrong decision.

So what of Rosler? Will he get the support from Whelan that Jewell and Martinez enjoyed?

Rosler maintains the support of the majority of fans who are not fazed by indifferent early season results. He did a remarkable job last season, lifting a team that was drifting down towards the lower layers of the league table. To go into extra time in an FA Cup Semi Final and reach a playoff spot would have beggared belief months before.

Like Martinez, Rosler has a clear view how football should be played. If he had been appointed to take over from the Spaniard the changeover might have been easier to handle. In appointing Coyle, Whelan damaged much of the legacy left by Martinez in one fell swoop. Football at Wigan took a nosedive and it still has not fully recovered.

At the risk of repeating myself from a previous article, it took Martinez some two and a half seasons to get his players to fully respond to his ideas. Fans will remember those wins over Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United for years to come, as they will Ben Watson’s header at Wembley. But it is not just the results, but the style in which Latics gained those victories.

Injuries in the pre-season have severely hampered Rosler’s plans. Critics will say the players were “overtrained”, leading to niggling injuries for too many. But only time will tell if Chris Haslam’s routines pay dividends over the coming weeks, with Latics physically outperforming the opposition.

The loss of free agents Jean Beausejour and Jordi Gomez over summer was a body blow for the German. Both were able to provide a certain poise that has been lacking since their departure. The lack of creativity in midfield is a cause for concern, although a fit Shaun Maloney would go a long way to solving those problems. It remains to be seen whether the Adam Forshaw saga will be resolved, but the Brentford player would also add creativity if Rosler could get him.

Rosler continues to scour the market for central strikers to add a third to his squad. Marc-Antoine Fortune remains an option in attack despite his poor goalscoring record. Oriel Riera just could not get into the game in the first half at Charlton, where there was a disconnect between midfield and the big forwards. One hopes he will not go the way of Mauro Boselli who was starved of service with Charles N’Zogbia on the right flank and Hugo Rodallega on the left, both of whom were going to go for goal themselves, rather than supply the central striker. Boselli’s demise is a chilling reminder of what can happen to central strikers at Wigan.

Rosler’s new signings will take time to settle in. Andrew Taylor was troubled by injury in pre-season and is clearly not at his best. Don Cowie made a useful contribution at Charlton and with time he will become an important player. Despite having a good technique, Cowie keeps things simple, harrying the opposition, tacking, intercepting, and making sure his passes reach his teammates. Emyr Huws has already made a positive impression. Strong in the tackle, with a cultured left foot, he is playing in the Chris McCann position. The young full backs, James Tavernier and Aaron Taylor-Sinclair will be gradually eased in, more often used as wing backs where the defensive duties are less onerous.

Rosler will continue to demand that his players embrace his high tempo, high pressing game. It has been unrealistic to expect a team that has been palpably unfit up to this point to perform at that level of intensity. The end result has too often been hoofing the ball out of defence, although football returned to their play at The Valley.  The team was clearly playing under orders to play the ball out of defence and build up through midfield. With two new players in the middle of the park it is going to take time to develop the mutual understanding that will make the midfield tick like a well-oiled machine. Cutting out the hoofing is the important step.

Only two teams in the division – Bournemouth and Millwall – have won both of their opening league games. There are four teams who are pointless. Latics have not made the worst start, but expectations are high and they have disappointed so far. But there are another 44 matches to go.

Like any manager Rosler will be judged on results. With the signing of another creative midfielder and another central striker he will have a squad that will be the envy of most other clubs in the division. As the squad gets fitter and his key players raise their levels of performance the results will surely come.

For the moment Rosler needs the continued support of the fans and the owner. Latics are lucky to have such a talented and bright manager.

Despite the poor start, promotion remains a distinct possibility. Uwe Rosler is the man to lead Latics back into the Premier League.

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Latics’ midfield – the key to promotion

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McArthur and Maloney – key players for a promotion push.

“Before the World Cup started there were a few rumours about McArthur and Maloney, but I have spoken to them and they know they are two of the cornerstones of the team. Both players will be massively important in my plans going forward and I made that very clear to both of them.”

It was heartening to hear Uwe Rosler this week dismiss transfer speculation regarding the two.

New signings apart, it is to be hoped that Latics will be able to resist approaches from other clubs for quality players such as Maloney and McArthur. Maloney was sadly missed last season and can play a key role, whether playing in “the hole” or in a wide role. Maybe we expected too much of him at the end of the season after a long layoff through injury.

Rosler will be hoping that Ben Watson and Chris McCann will be back in action following a double leg fracture and a damaged knee cap. Rosler clearly had faith in the midfield trio of McArthur, McCann and Watson. He had already lost Watson, when he lost McCann in the FA Cup win at Manchester City. It was McCann’s injury that proved to be the turning point and from then on results fell significantly.

One continues to ponder the future of Roger Espinoza, one of Honduras’ best performers in an albeit disappointing World Cup campaign. Despite being a fan-favourite Espinoza has failed to establish himself under three managers during his time at Wigan. He was played at left midfield for Honduras and looked effective in that position. Having been in the shop window during the World Cup it is possible that other clubs will bid for him. It will be interesting to see what develops.

Rosler continues to impress as Wigan Athletic manager. He has analysed the weaknesses in his squad and already made four signings, all of whom look like they can fit into the system the German likes to employ. They are already in training at the Latics camp in Germany.

Left back was a problem area last season, with wing back Jean Beausejour often having to play in that position, excellent when going forward, but sometimes unconvincing in defence. Stephen Crainey struggled to cope initially, but thrived when Rosler took some defensive responsibility away from him, allowing him to play at wing back. However, at 32 and on a one year contract it was unlikely the Scot would be staying. In their place Rosler has brought in Andrew Taylor and Aaron Taylor-Sinclair. Taylor is an experienced and very capable left back, who can also play left midfield. Taylor-Sinclair is clearly a bright young talent from Partick Thistle who might well follow in the paths of James McCarthy and James McArthur, who came from a similar type of background at Hamilton.

The signing of James Tavernier from Newcastle gives Rosler more options at right back. James Perch is an excellent defensively and over the course of last season he improved greatly in his attacking. His goals at the Etihad and Loftus Road showed his willingness to thrust himself forward. When Ryan Shotton left in the New Year Latics were short of options at right back, Emmerson Boyce having been drafted into the centre of defence. Perch continued to be the consummate team player, sometimes playing when he was not 100% fit. In Tavernier, Rosler has a more attacking option and the young player certainly has some flair.

Oriel Riera might well prove to be an inspired signing. Although he has spent most of his career in the lower leagues in Spain he proved himself last season in the La Liga first division at Osasuna. There was speculation among supporters that Dave Whelan was going to get out his cheque book and spend big money on a couple of quality strikers. However, Whelan was unlikely to undermine the wage structure that was in place and he is unwilling to pay over-inflated transfer fees for English-born strikers. Riera fits the bill. Another foreign-based striker remains on the cards.

There is a strong likelihood that more of the players remaining from the Premier League days will leave over the coming weeks. Jordi Gomez has already gone and Jean Beausejour will move soon. Ivan Ramis is Latics’ best centre back, but his high salary and questions over his fitness lead us to believe he will be on his way. One of the goalkeepers too is likely to depart. There has been no statement from the club regarding a new contract for Gary Caldwell. The Scot has his detractors, but if fully fit, he could be a force in the Championship.

A lot could happen over the coming weeks, but Rosler clearly has a plan forward. Under his astute management, promotion is a distinct possibility.

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Finances, FFP and the long term future for Wigan Athletic

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Leicester City were once again champions of the second tier of English football this year. No club has done that more than the Foxes, this being their seventh title.

Leicester were deserving winners of the 2013-2014 Skybet Championship. Manager Nigel Pearson had built up a squad that in terms of quality and depth was far superior to those of the majority of the other clubs in the division. His success was reflected in their tally of 102 points for the season, the joint highest since 2005-06 when Reading amassed an impressive 106 points.

But did Leicester buy their success?

Leicester lost £34 million in the 2012-13 season, beating what had been a record deficit of £29.7 million the previous year. However, the Financial Fair Play (FFP) rules came into play at the start of the 2013-14 season. FFP was to allow Championship clubs to lose no more than £8 million this season or they would face a fine or a ban on player transfers. Leicester’s Thai owners had lent £75 million, but facing FFP they drastically reduced the club’s debt by conversion into equity, as Dave Whelan did at Wigan. The Leicester Mercury  reports that the club can “effectively make a £13 million loss and still comply with these rules. This is because the rules do not include costs relating to the youth academy and various one-off losses.”

The FFP rules clearly have some loopholes and Leicester’s accounting team, like those at many other clubs, will be keen to manipulate them and not pay the penalties. Leicester still expect to meet that £13 million loss target.

In contrast with Leicester’s total losses of almost £64 million over the two seasons from 2011-13, Wigan Athletic actually made a profit in each. Reversing a spiral of losses spanning decades, Latics made total net profits of £4.3 million in 2011-12 and £822,000 in 2012-13. That was accomplished while they were in the Premier League.  Can they continue to make a profit – or at least break even – in the totally different environment of the Skybet Championship?

When Wigan Athletic were relegated from the Premier League last season it was clear that both revenues and attendances were going to drop. The question was going to be – by how much?

Latics’ gate money in the Premier League days was always dwarfed by the TV revenues they were receiving and from a purely financial viewpoint attendances were not much of an issue. Last year match day revenues covered no more than 10% of total revenue of £56.4m. Without the television revenues, the club could never have seriously competed in the Premier League.

However, relegation entailed a huge loss in TV revenue – an average Premier League club now receives around £60 million, while the average Championship club receives around £2.5 million. It was clear that the club would need to look at maximizing its other sources of revenue. However, parachute payments (£59 million over four years, including £23 million in the first) would help cover the shortfall  and give Latics a competitive advantage over the majority of the clubs who receive only the £2.2 million Premier League Solidarity payment.

Financial accounts for the season just finished are not yet available, but the likelihood is that the majority of the clubs in the Championship once again lost money. In 2012-13 only five clubs made a profit: Blackpool, Crystal Palace, Huddersfield, Peterborough and Watford. Most of those clubs did so through their business in the transfer market.

The Championship clearly has a long way to go in terms of marketing itself. Its television revenues are paltry in comparison with the Premier League. This despite the fact that  average attendances for the Championship division place it in eighth place of leagues in the whole of Europe.

With an average of 43,497 the Bundesliga once again tops the attendance charts in Europe ahead of the top flight leagues in England, Spain, Italy, France and the Netherlands. The second division of the Bundesliga had an average attendance of 17,888, with England’s second tier following with 16,605.

Wigan Athletic’s average league attendance of 15,177 this season was some 8% below the division  average. Brighton topped the attendance table with an average of 27,283. However, Latics ranked third in attendances away from home drawing an average crowd of 17,370, bettered only by Leeds and Burnley.

In the two years they had spent in the Championship division prior to promotion, Latics averaged 9,531 in 2003-04 and 11,563 in 2004-05 when they finished second. Latics now have a much bigger and younger fan base than they did then. That core of younger supporters will help attendances remain at least where they currently are at the moment unless the club is relegated.

On a local level their attendances remain above those of Wigan Warriors who averaged less than 14,000 in 2013.  Since Latics entered the Premier League in 2005 their attendances have been constantly superior. The challenge will be to hold them there whilst remaining in the Championship. Latics highest league attendance at home this year was 19,226 against Leeds United. The lowest was 12,970 when hosting Yeovil.

Latics’ Lancashire rivals in the Championship are old clubs with fan bases built up over more than a century. Wigan Athletic were formed in 1932, got into the Football League in 1978 and the Premier League in 2005. Their average attendance in the 1993-94 season just twenty years ago – not a long time span compared with the age of those clubs – was 1,897, which is an eighth of what they had in this 2013-14 season.

This season their average attendance was higher than those of Burnley (13,719 – founded in 1882), Blackpool (14,216 – founded in 1877) and Blackburn (14,961 – founded in 1875), being bettered only by Bolton (16,140 – founded in 1874).

During their stay in the Premier League Wigan Athletic wisely kept their ticket prices well below those of most other clubs. The ticket prices  remain competitive in the Championship. In the 2013-14 season the lowest price for a ticket at the DW Stadium was £15, equal to costs at Blackburn, Leicester and Nottingham Forest. Such tickets were cheaper only at  Derby and Huddersfield at £10. Moreover Latics’ cheapest season ticket price of £280 was below average, being bettered only by Yeovil £273, Bournemouth £250, Derby £230, Blackburn £225, Blackpool £195 and Huddersfield £199.

Through playing successes in recent years, keeping admission prices low and an increasing involvement in the local community the club has built up a fan base that now rivals those of their venerable neighbours and competitors. Through Whelan’s actions of converting debt into equity, Wigan Athletic are currently close to being debt free. They are being run along sound financial lines and are not living beyond their means, as is the norm with most Championship clubs.

However, the Championship is a difficult environment in which to operate. It is the parachute payments that are currently keeping Latics afloat. In order to hold a mid table position a club typically carries a wage bill in excess of £20 million. But the total of match day receipts, television revenue and commercial revenue is unlikely to reach £10 million next season and they will be without the financial benefits of the Europa League.

The long-term future for Latics in this division appears bleak. Parachute payments will decrease by £5 million next season, when Latics really need to put in a concerted effort to get back to the Premier League where they would have the huge financial buffer of media revenues. They will face stiff financial competition from the relegated clubs – Cardiff, Fulham and Norwich – with their first year parachute money and Premier League squads. Moreover  there are other clubs, not long departed from the top tier, receiving such subsidies. What will happen if Latics do not get promotion within the next three years?

Over recent years there have been a lot of clubs who have maintained high wage bills, without the playing success to match it. However, the clubs near the bottom of the table have almost invariably tended to be those with the lowest wage bills.

In an interesting study of Championship club finances made by Kevin Messere he quotes that: “Typically to finish in the top six a cost base of £30M is required.” Given the figures we have already looked at, Latics are unlikely to be able to reach such a figure without making a loss, unless they use financial reserves or make a healthy profit in the transfer market. However, given the significant outlay to be made at Charnock Richard they are unlikely to have much in reserve. The inference is that Uwe Rosler will have to sell off some of his prized assets or to cut his squad size drastically.

Given the inability of the Football League to attract big money from the media there will continue to be a large imbalance in income in the Championship division for years to come. Parachute payments give a huge financial advantage to clubs coming down from the Premier League, although many have been weighed down by the salaries of players remaining on long-term contracts. In 2012-13 relegated clubs Bolton and Blackburn had costs amounting to around £50M, leading to big financial losses over the season, despite the first year parachute payments they received.

Given the precarious financial future ahead of the club, Dave Whelan has made a bold move in purchasing what promises to be an excellent venue for a youth academy. Put simply, Wigan Athletic needs to be a “selling club”. Selling one prized asset each year might well be enough to keep the club afloat over the long term, no matter which division they are in.

It is going to take some years for the club to be able to develop its academy sufficiently to provide potential first team players. In the meantime it will be a matter of making astute signings, of young players in particular, who can be nurtured and eventually sold on.

We can expect a lot of changes over the summer. Rosler will have to look at offloading players with high salaries and will have to reduce his squad size significantly. Changes might also be made within the coaching and backroom staff, with him bringing in people who have worked with him previously who know his philosophy and the style of play he seeks. Ex-Brentford assistant manager Alan Kernahan and coach Peter Farrell will surely be under consideration.

Next season promises to be a fascinating one for Wigan Athletic. Rosler will lose a number of quality players over the summer. The question will be whether he will be able to find quality replacements, given the financial resources at his disposal.

In the meantime Latics will strive towards long-term sustainability as a higher echelon team in English football.

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Latics aim for Premier League return

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There is no doubt that Uwe Rosler has the Premier League in his sights. Neither he nor Dave Whelan want to stay in the second tier. The question is how to get back there.

For all the flak that Owen Coyle took when he left Wigan he left Latics a formidable squad. His personal charisma and the offer of good salaries by Championship standards enticed more than a dozen players to Wigan.

Coyle’s critics will say that his big failing in the transfer market was bringing in two 32 year old strikers who were past their sell-by date. However, good strikers are in short supply and their transfer fees up in the clouds. Coyle did what he could and he could not have guessed how ineffective Grant Holt, in particular, would be.

There is a strong lobby that wants Whelan dig into his pocket and use the money from the summer sales to sign a top class striker. Somewhere between £13-£15 m is the figure being touted as the funds available.

Signing for Latics as a striker has been a kiss of death in recent years. So many have been signed, but never been able to deliver enough goals. Typically they have been left to fend for themselves as lone centre forwards, up against two central defenders.

Arouna Kone was an exception and did that well last year, scoring goals in the process. One wonders how he would have fared in this season’s team, if he had not been enticed to Everton.

Mauro Boselli was a big money signing by Latics’ standards, but the lone role did not suit him and he was like a fish out of water. Boselli had a torrid time at Wigan – unfairly ridiculed by one fan site – but he has revived his career through a move to Mexico. Since joining Leon he scored 18 goals in 22 appearances in the regular season and helped them beat Club America  5-1 to win the Apertura Championship playoffs with goals like this.

Like Boselli, Grant Holt has come in for a lot of criticism at Wigan. Critics would say that a good central striker makes things happen. Realists would say it depends on the service. During Boselli’s early days at Wigan he had Charles N’Zogbia to his right and Hugo Rodallega to his left, both of whom were expected to strike on goal themselves. Holt has not been given any favours either as the service from the wide players this season has been poor.

Whelan is unlikely to allow Rosler to splash big money on a striker this month. It is a gamble the club cannot afford to take at this stage. Rosler will look at players with goal scoring records in the lower division and those available on loan.

The proceeds from the summer sales will largely go towards providing the new facility at Charnock Richard. Whelan is clearly looking at Latics being back in the Premier League and having an academy that can produce home-grown players. His appointment of Gregor Rioch to spearhead that programme is a real step forward for the club.

Whelan is looking at the long term future of Wigan Athletic, as a Premier League Club. He will be aware of the risks of Latics’ finest young players being poached by the elite clubs, through the EPPP, if they are not in the top tier.

Latics can not only get back into the Premier League, but will be able to see a future there if the academy system takes off. Whelan has already shown himself to be far-sighted in his planning for the club. He will face pressure in terms of investing for the present and for the future. But he will not waiver.

Uwe Rosler has already made a great impression. His challenge is to get the right balance in the team. He does not need to spend a huge amount of money to do that. The squad that Coyle left behind is good enough to challenge for promotion, given a couple of key additions.

Latics are entering a new era. Financial Fair Play will restrict Whelan’s capacity to pump in funds. The club has to stand on its own two feet. Whelan is right to require the club to be run in a business-like manner, making ends meet.

There continues to be long-term planning and the task of getting Latics back into the Premier League is in the hands of one of the brightest and best young managers.

Wigan Athletic continue to look forward to to continue to punch above their weight.

The future continues to look bright.

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Evolution over revolution as Wigan welcomes Uwe Rosler

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Despite an awful run of form resulting in the club’s lowest league position in the better part of a decade, the formal unveiling of new boss Uwe Rosler at the DW Stadium earlier today appears to have injected a welcome breath of positivity at Wigan Athletic.

Flanked by chief executive Jonathan Jackson and club chairman Dave Whelan, the German hit all the right notes during an insightful half hour press conference. His approach serious and considered, Rosler did much to suggest he will embrace the groundwork set in place at the club by Roberto Martinez, while tweaking the finer details in playing style to suit his own brand of football.

He referenced a high-tempo passing and pressing game employing a 4-3-3 formation, similar in some ways to the Spaniard’s preferred system, but different in others — hinting that there would be an emphasis on pace and energy, and a commitment to pushing bodies forward in attack. Although we will have to wait and see exactly how these changes manifest themselves, the comparison between the Martinez and Rosler blueprints does not sound far off the transition Swansea underwent from Brendan Rodgers tikki-takka to Michael Laudrup’s skill-based but more direct approach.

Whelan once again commented on the hiring process, reiterating the goal of a Premier League return as soon as possible, and backing his new man to be a huge success at Wigan. When asked about specifically about Callum McManaman and James McLean, Rosler described them each as exciting, fast and direct players that would fit his system, while reserving a diplomatic word about room for improvement in McLean’s final pass. He also opined that the change in management and style, plus the fixture congestion with the club taking part in the Europa League group stages, posed huge challenges to the club earlier this season.

There was a quiet resolve and confidence about Rosler’s delivery that is already generating optimism amongst supporters on social media outlets. The hope is that he will be able to swiftly convey it to his new players and that such desire will manifest itself on the pitch in coming weeks. His description of the opportunity as a “dream” to join “such a big club” will likely please many but also felt genuine, while his long-term views and discussion of player development suggest he is in it for the long haul.

More immediately, he made it clear that next weekend’s Championship fixture against Bolton will be the priority, but that the midweek trip to Maribor was a winnable contest. It should also provide him a good chance to get to know some of the personalities in the squad as the Latics embark on their final Europa League group stage adventure as a squad.

Interestingly, the new manager spoke about having developed a relationship with Martinez since Rob Kiernan joined Brentford on loan in 2012, but confirmed that he had not consulted the Spaniard before taking the position over the weekend. In a curious twist of fate, Martinez himself was today in Wigan being honoured at Wigan’s “walk of stars” for his achievement in winning the FA Cup last season. Chairman Whelan, also being honoured at the event, was several minutes late to the press conference as a result.

All of which may have been pure coincidence, but you do get the sense that this was an appointment made with Martinez in mind. Whelan was displeased by Coyle’s rejection of the style his predecessor had spent three years implementing from the youth teams all the way up through the first team. With this appointment, the chairman has made clear his hope for a period of evolution rather than revolution at Wigan Athletic.

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