Monthly Archives: January 2014

Lessons to be learned from Middlesbrough

Posted by JJ (Tony) in Other, Reflections and tagged with , , , , ,
Steve Gibson

Steve Gibson

Wigan Athletic’s failure to win at Middlesbrough on Tuesday leaves them seven points short of the play-off zone, level on points with the north east club, but having played two games less.

“Before the game I would have taken a point” said Uwe Rosler, nevertheless disappointed with his team’s performance and their inability to play the high-tempo, high-pressing football he seeks.

But should Latics be expected to win at places like Middlesbrough? Do Wigan Athletic have any comparative advantage over a club like Boro?

Boro had been in the Premier League for 11 seasons before they were relegated in 2009. Their highest position was 7th in 2004-05 and the following season they reached the UEFA Cup Final. Founded in 1876 they have only spent two seasons outside the top two tiers of English football.

Being in the Championship has been a sobering experience for those in Rosler’s squad who have come down from the Premier League. Middlesbrough’s players must have felt the same when they came down, finishing in 11th place that year. Since then they have finished 12th, 7th and 16th.

There are a lot of big clubs in the division who are desperate to get into the Premier League. Some have been so desperate that they have thrown financial stability to the wind. However, Latics have an owner who insists on sound financial management, despite the criticisms aimed at him by some fans.

Is Dave Whelan right to run the club in such a manner?  Or should Latics go the way of so many other clubs who have dropped down from the Premier League and use their parachute payments to keep and attract the kinds of players who can get them back there?

Middlesbrough announced a pre-tax loss of £13.5m for the 12 months up to June 2012. Like Latics they have a millionaire owner – Steve Gibson – who has written off so many of their losses over recent years. In fact during that same period there were five other clubs who posted bigger losses than them. The leader was Leicester with an after-tax loss of £29.7m.

For some time now Gibson has been writing off close to £1m a month to keep Boro up where they are. With the Financial Fair Play (FFP) rules due to come into effect this clearly cannot continue. The loss announced last March was based on revenue of £18.1m, with only £4.8m coming from gate receipts.

There has been so much conjecture over the years over Wigan Athletic’s attendances. Up to this point their average league attendance has been 15,284 – down from the figure of 19,375 last year. This year they will play 23 home games, compared with 19 in the Premier League. If attendances stay at the current level the aggregate over the season will fall short of that last season. Overall match receipts for league games this season are not likely to exceed £4m.

In the last two seasons Wigan Athletic have made net profits, £4.2m announced in 2011-12 and £822,000 in 2012-13, when increased wages kept profits down. However, last year match receipts covered only around 10% total revenue of £56.4m. It is the commercial sector, dominated by the television revenues, that helped the club compete in the Premier League.

In the 2011-12 season only five clubs in the Championship made a net profit. Net losses amounted to a total of £158m, an average of £6.6m per club. Cardiff City made a loss of £30m last season in moving up from the Championship division.

Lessons learned at Middlesbrough show that a club has only been able to live beyond its means if it has had a rich benefactor. However, FFP is going to limit the ability of a club to survive in that way. Boro are an old club, with a strong fan base, but their short-term future is starting to look bleak.  It is their fifth consecutive season in the Championship, each year having made considerable losses, with promotion a dim possibility.

The dilemma for Wigan Athletic is whether to pump funds into a big bid for promotion or whether to go for financial consolidation. Maybe the compromise will be somewhere between the two extremes. The dip in commercial revenues compared with the Premier League is huge.

With a large squad and a number of players on high salaries by Championship standards Latics will have to use a significant chunk of their parachute payments to make ends meet this year. If they do not get promotion this season we might well see more of the higher wage earners move on in summer. The squad size will reduce now that they no longer have Europa League commitments.

If they stay in the Championship Wigan will have a comparative advantage over most of their rivals for a couple more years. However, each year more teams will be coming down from the Premier League with parachute payments in their pockets and the extra funding for Latics will have a finite lifetime. One only needs to look at what has happened to clubs like Middlesbrough to see what can happen.

Promotion to the Premier League is a priority for Wigan. The commercial revenues there would make it easier for them to survive financially. Rosler is going to have to look for bargains if they stay in the Championship. Given the aforementioned factors Dave Whelan will not be able to dip into his pockets in the same way he did in the past.

The balance sheet at the end of the year will make interesting reading.

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No fire sale please Dave

Posted by JJ (Tony) in Reflections and tagged with , , , , , ,

firesale2

In May 2013 it looked like a fire sale was on its way at Wigan Athletic. Having lost its place in the Premier League the club looked ready to sell most of its prized assets.  There was a need to cut the wage bill to meet the harsh financial reality of relegation and to create a cash buffer. But fans were hoping that funds coming in from transfers would be used towards buying new players.

Around £20m was to be raised through the transfers of James McCarthy, Arouna Kone and Mauro Boselli. Moreover none of the players who were out of contract were to stay, relieving pressure on the wage bill. However, critics will question the club of not jangling a big enough carrot in front of the noses of players in the final years of their contracts. The combined market value of Antolin Alcaraz, Maynor Figueroa and Franco Di Santo might well have reached  £15m if they could have been retained.

So the club’s two biggest assets in terms of transfer value – McCarthy and Kone – were the ones who went, in addition to Boselli who had never broken through at Wigan.  The good news was that the remaining twelve senior players from the Martinez were staying, giving Latics a backbone of quality players in a lower league.  It was a great relief for fans to see players like Callum McManaman and Shaun Maloney staying at the club.

Unfortunately things did not go too well for those players under Owen Coyle, with few of them playing to their true potential and others, like Roger Espinoza and Fraser Fyvie, largely left out of the loop.

The arrival of Uwe Rosler has coincided to a return to form of so many of the Martinez men. James McArthur in particular has looked rejuvenated and there are signs that the inconsistent Callum McManaman is approaching his optimum.  Were McManaman able to prove that he could perform at his best for a full 90 minutes, week-in-week-out, he could command a transfer value in excess of £15m. However, he has a long way to go before getting to that point.

The  big fire sale did not happen  in summer, but there is considerable speculation to suggest that it might happen in this January transfer window.

Far too often the media is wide of the mark with its transfer news, but it can nevertheless cause disruption within football clubs. The names of most of Wigan Athletic’s currently most prized assets have entered the transfer gossip columns over the past week, but as always it seems hard to separate fact from fiction.

Were Ivan Ramis to have been fit in summer he might well have been courted by Premier League clubs.  It is no surprise to hear rumours  that both Crystal Palace and Cardiff City are keen to sign him in this transfer window.

Ramis played one match too many in a short space of time following his recovery from cruciate knee surgery, picking up a groin injury, which has kept him out of action recently. He would be a good acquisition for either club. However, he still has another 18 months left on his contract and Latics do not need to let him go at this stage, unless they get offered a price they cannot refuse, which is unlikely. Moreover Ramis would be unwise to move to either of the two clubs, given the distinct possibility that both will be in the Championship division next season.

Jean Beausejour is the most likely to leave and the media report that Steve Bruce wants him at Hull for only £750,000. The Chilean is a proven Premier League player and it would be a good deal for the Yorkshire club. As far as Latics are concerned his contract is up in summer and they will get nothing if they don’t sell him this month. However, it will be a case of the club losing one of its most skillful players.

Jordi Gomez’s future remains uncertain. There may be some last minute offers for him before the transfer window closes, but there remains the possibility of him running down his contract and returning to Spain.

It is ironic after all the criticism the player has received over the years from fans that many of them have started to recognize what a talented player he is. Too often Gomez has been played out of position, rather than in his best spot in the hole between the central striker and the midfield. However, although Rosler has been complimentary  about Gomez to the press, one wonders the German is looking for a player capable of launching attacks more rapidly. The loan signing of Josh McEachran suggests just that.

Ben Watson might well sign a new contract at Wigan, although an offer from another club could still come through.

Rosler has already sold Nouha Dicko to Wolves and there could be more. The most likely is Jean Beausejour. However, hearing that Rosler is seeking a defender on loan makes one wonder if Ramis will be leaving. Should Latics secure promotion this season then they would need players of the Spaniard’s quality in the Premier League. To let him go for a couple of million at this stage could be a mistake. It would cost a lot more to buy a player of such quality were promotion to happen.

Let’s hope Dave Whelan will support his new manager by keeping departures at a minimum during this transfer window.  There are genuine concerns among supporters about the best quality players leaving the club.

Despite the reverse suffered by a tired Latics at Doncaster last week, there is at least an even chance that they can make the playoffs. Although promotion next season is a more realistic target, this current team should not be written off.

If Rosler can make the sum of the parts to at least equal the whole then promotion this season remains within grasp. That is providing he does not lose a number of key players through a fire sale in this transfer window.

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Doncaster Preview – Maynard set for debut

Posted by JJ (Tony) in Other and tagged with , , , , , , , ,

keepmoat

Wigan Athletic travel to the Keepmoat Stadium this afternoon having won their last three away games and being unbeaten in the league in seven matches under Uwe Rosler. Doncaster are fighting to get themselves out of the relegation mire, currently sitting on 22nd place. Their home record reads W4 D2 L6.

Under normal circumstances one would expect an emphatic Latics win. However, Wigan come into the encounter following an energy-sapping 120 minutes FA Cup win at MK Dons on Tuesday. It is by no means an ideal preparation for a trip to any team in the Championship division.

Uwe Rosler will be keen to avoid slipping on the banana skin with three points going begging. Ideally he would refresh his starting lineup to rest some of the tired legs in his squad. However, his options may be limited because of injury problems. In the centre of defence both Ivan Ramis and Thomas Rogne have been out for several games and Emmerson Boyce has had to move over to cover from the right back position. This might be the case today with James Perch on the right. The attacking option on the left of defence is Jean Beausejour, but Stephen Crainey is a possibility.

Midfielders Roger Espinoza, James McArthur, Chris McCann and Ben Watson played the full two hours at Milton Keynes.  At least two of them will make today’s lineup, with a possible start for Jordi Gomez, who came on after 72 minutes in midweek.

Callum McManaman was rested in midweek and could prove a key player today. Rosler wants to avoid burn-out of his young players. He is clearly nurturing McManaman, who has been starting to regain his form. Rosler is also concerned about overplaying the excellent 19 year old Nick Powell. However, had Powell not come on in the second half at Milton Keynes Latics might well have been knocked out of the FA Cup. He provides that extra touch of class and creativity that the team lacks when he is not on the field.

Marc-Antoine Fortune can at last see some light at the end of a dark tunnel, having scored two well taken goals in his last two games. Fortune was in danger of being written off by some fans and lumped into the same category as the hapless Grant Holt – that of two 32 year old strikers past their best.

Fortune has always been a good footballer, a mobile striker with no mean level of skill. His career record shows he has never been a consistent goalscorer, but with his previous clubs he would often be played wide, away from his natural position in the centre. The French Guianian might be into his thirties, but he still has pace and is benefitting from an extended run in the team. In league matches he now has 2 goals from 10 starts, but he leads the ‘assists’ with four.

Fortune fits in the Rosler mould as a mobile centre forward who can contribute towards the high pressing, but also has the pace to launch rapid counterattacks. The same cannot be said of Holt, who has temporarily left the club.

Holt was brought in by Owen Coyle to employ him in the kind of role that Kevin Davies played in the manager’s time at Bolton. He scored two goals in nine starts at Wigan. There has been much vitriol from fans aimed at the big Cumbrian, who has been offered a lifeline by his old manager Paul Lambert at Aston Villa. This is a good move for Wigan, not only freeing up space on the wage bill, but giving the player a fresh chance to show that he is not ‘over the hill’.

This week the social media has been riddled with images of Holt as an overweight, out-of-condition player. However, he was recently quoted as saying that he is in the best shape of his career. Holt has never been a player known for his pace, but more of an old fashioned English centre forward, a battering ram to attack any defence.  A future for Holt at Wigan remains unlikely given the style of play that Rosler seeks and the fan reaction towards him.

Rosler will probably start Fortune at centre forward at Doncaster today, bringing on Nicky Maynard at some stage. However, Fortune has started in the last four matches in a space of 17 days, including the marathon at Milton Keynes. A bold move on the manager’s part would be to put on Maynard from the start.

Maynard fits into the Rosler mould as a mobile central striker who can score goals. At 27 he should be nearing his peak, but serious injuries have held him back. Rosler will ease him in gradually and he could well share that centre forward position with Fortune, the two interchanging between the starting lineup and coming off the bench.

Whether Wigan Athletic come away with the points from today’s game depends largely on the energy and commitment they can put into it. Quite often the adrenalin that comes from a successful run of results can be sufficient to keep those tired legs moving.

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Rosler’s January Sales

Posted by JJ (Tony) in Reflections and tagged with , , , , , , , , ,

sale

“The budget is spent in terms of the amount of players we have in. It’s a big squad but that was needed because of the European games. What (the January transfer window) allows me is it might free up some money on the wage budget to bring in loan players until the end of the season or on a short-term to help us and that is what I’ll try to do.”

So said Uwe Rosler according to media reports yesterday. But what can be read into his comments?

Some money has now been freed from the wage budget with the transfer of Nouha Dicko to Wolves, for a fee reputed to be around £300,000. On the other hand Dicko was not one of the big wage earners and Latics already added a new member to their staff last week by recruiting Chris Haslam, Brentford’s performance coach.

Letting a striker go when the team has been so goal-shy would seem like a backward step, but Dicko was never able to secure a first team place despite his successes on loan at Blackpool and Rotherham.

In fact Haslam’s recruitment could be the key to a successful second half of the season for the club. The players continue to adapt to the high pressing game that Rosler demands, although they often run out of steam. If Haslam can improve player fitness levels it is going to make the team more consistently competitive.

Rosler’s right hand men at Brentford – assistant manager Alan Kernaghan and coach Peter Farrell – left the London club soon after he did. But they have not followed him to Wigan, with Graham Barrow continuing and John Doolan being brought up from youth team duties to help out. It has become the norm for a new manager to bring his tried and trusted lieutenants with him, but in this case Rosler certainly seems to have made a good start without them.

The budget might be the constraining factor, but it could also be down to an awareness within the club that more wholesale changes to the coaching and backroom staff could be damaging. It is only six months ago that Owen Coyle brought in a swathe of new staff to replace those that Roberto Martinez took with him to Everton.

Rosler’s dilemma is in how he is going to be able to further reduce the wage bill, without weakening Latics’ chances of getting back to the Premier League. The established players who are still with the club from the Martinez era are going to be among the highest wage earners, although Coyle probably had to offer salaries above Championship division norms to many of the players he recruited.

Jean Beausejour, Jordi Gomez and Ben Watson are out of contract at the end of the season. All three are experienced former Premier League players who will attract interest in this transfer window. At least one is likely to go unless offers come in for others in the squad with a similar profile.

Ivan Ramis is a prized asset, but has only recently come back from long-term injury and a club is unlikely to want to take a gamble at this stage. A few months ago one would have expected the big clubs to be chasing Callum McManaman in January, but his form has been disappointing so far. Keeping Ramis and McManaman and at least two of Beausejour, Gomez or Watson will provide a backbone of players who can not only help Latics get promotion, but go on to play in the Premier League next season.

Rumours have been circulating that Rosler will cut his losses with Grant Holt, reputedly the highest wage earner of the players recruited by Coyle. The main talk is of sending him off on loan, which would help the lower the wage bill for now but it should not be forgotten that Holt is on a three year contract. It remains to be seen whether another club would come in and even take him on a free transfer, given his wage expectations. Will he suffer the same fate as Mauro Boselli to be sent off on various loans until his contract winds down in 2016?

Coyle’s hopeful signing of the two 32 year old strikers – Holt and Fortune – has proved a damp squib up to this point. He has the option to try to offload them and reduce the wage bill, but he might be shooting himself in the foot in doing so and leaving the squad without any specialized and experienced strikers.

With the short term loan signing of Tyias Browning and the not-too-distant return of Gary Caldwell the defence remains well staffed. So too does the midfield, although it looks like Fraser Fyvie will once more be sent on loan. Moreover rumours abound that Roger Espinoza will be leaving in this transfer window. He was marginalised by Coyle and Rosler has not seemed particularly keen on him despite the Honduran putting up good performances when given the opportunity. One wonders if off the field issues are coming into play.

Latics have a peculiar situation with goalkeepers, for some reason having four. Rosler is already talking about sending Lee Nicholls out on loan again and Mike Pollitt’s contract is up in summer. Even so he has two ex-Premier League keepers  in Ali Al-Habsi and Scott Carson. Should Latics get promotion they might both continue. Should they not then it is likely one will depart in summer.

The January transfer window period always seems to be a stressful time at the DW Stadium. In the past Latics have lost key players during this period. But it can work both ways. Last year Martinez brought in Roger Espinoza from Kansas City and both Paul Scharner and Joel Robles on loan from Hamburg and Atletico Madrid respectively. All three were to play in the lineup that won the FA Cup final.

Let’s hope that not too many of Wigan’s better players are whisked away over the coming weeks and that Rosler can make good loan signings.

He will be hoping that Cardiff forward Nicky Maynard will be his second loan recruit within the next few days.

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Rested Latics should prove too good for Bournemouth

Posted by JJ (Tony) in Match Previews, Other and tagged with , , , , ,

Results often improve after a new manager arrives at a football club that has been struggling. The challenge for the new boss is to maintain that improvement over a more extended period.

Uwe Rosler had made an impressive start to his reign at Wigan Athletic. He has already shown himself to be more tactically astute than his predecessor and he has quickly gathered an overview of the strengths and weaknesses of his squad. He lost his first match in charge at Maribor, when a ‘dubious’ refereeing decision against Chris McCann was pivotal. Since then Latics have been unbeaten, winning three and drawing three.

Rosler will be keen to show that the upturn in results since his arrival has been no fluke. Bournemouth stand in 16th place and are the kind of team Latics need to beat if they are to make a serious challenge for promotion. Callum McManaman will be keen to get his revenge on the Cherries after being sent off against them in the 1-0 defeat at Dean Court in August.

Latics will go into the match fresh, not having played a midweek match – a rarity so far this season. They will be keen to put last week’s blip of a 3-3 draw with MK Dons behind them.

Rosler has said that the injury situation is improving. Therefore we can expect Ivan Ramis to come back into the centre of defence with Leon Barnett. Ramis is a central defender of Premier League quality and will be outstanding in the Championship if he can maintain his fitness. Barnett has already proved to be one of Owen Coyle’s best signings, solid in defence and dangerous in the opposition penalty area. If he has a main area of weakness it is in his distribution, but Rosler will surely be working with him on that.

With Ramis and Barnett in the centre, Emmerson Boyce can be employed in his best position at right back. James Perch may well be switched to the left flank, providing defensive stability. However, Rosler might go for the attacking option with Jean Beausejour.

In midfield Ben Watson might be fit to return, but if so, will have to fight for a place with James McArthur, Chris McCann and Roger Espinoza. Espinoza has been left out in the cold for so long, but his ‘Man of the Match’ performance last weekend will help his chances. Jordi Gomez also comes into the reckoning.

If fit, Nick Powell will probably occupy the lone centre forward role. Rosler might be tempted to play the two wide men – Callum McManaman and James McClean – although there have been times when the presence of one has possibly inhibited the other. Both thrive on receiving the ball and if the midfield is stretched neither is going to get the service he needs. The other option is for Rosler to play a midfielder – such as Espinoza – in a wide position and to bring the other flanker on later in the game as the opposition tires.

The club’s official site has announced the signing of 19 year old defender Tyias Browning from Everton on a one month loan. Such short term loan signings can be questionable, but it could be that Rosler is looking for cover at centre back until Gary Caldwell is match fit.

Moreover Rosler has tried various formations, including  3-5-2.  Playing three central defenders cannot be ruled out given the quality that Wigan possess in that department. A back three of Barnett, Ramis and Rogne would be formidable at Championship level, let alone the prospect of a return for GC.

Whichever formation Rosler decides upon, Latics have much more quality than Bournemouth.

A resounding win for Latics is on the cards.

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