Swindon (H) Preview – beware of the banana skin

Man looking the other way while slipping on a banana peel

Swindon Town finished fourth in League 1 last season. They currently sit second from bottom, with only three wins so far. They are at low ebb. Surely it is a good time for Latics to play them? Or perhaps not.

It is the end of October and Gary Caldwell’s “new era” team are in the playoff zone, not having suffered a defeat in nine matches. They are unbeaten in league games at the DW Stadium. In contrast Swindon sacked their manager, Mark Cooper, a couple of weeks ago. Moreover their chairman has taken over as manager. His first game saw a 2-1 home loss to Oldham Athletic, followed by a 2-2 home draw with Coventry City.

However, the Robins’ chairman is an ex-professional footballer, with previous managerial experience. Lee Power started off at Norwich City before playing for ten more clubs in a career spanning a decade. Two broken legs helped finish his footballing career at the age of 28. Power became chairman of Cambridge United in August 2006 and within a month he took over as caretaker manager following the dismissal of Ron Newman. In April 2013 he bought into Swindon and became chairman seven months later.

Swindon’s poor start to the season can be largely attributed to the selling of key assets over the summer together with injury problems. Nathan Byrne went to Wolves and Ben Gladwin and Massimo Luongo to QPR before the season started. At one stage they had 12 players out of action through injury.

Wigan’s new weapon, Yanic Wildschut, is likely to be a marked man tomorrow. Swindon will do their best to stop him using his blistering pace to effect. The Dutchman has made a huge impression at Latics over the past month and management want to keep him long term, but that will not only depend on Middlesbrough’s willingness to let him go, but also on competing with other clubs for his signing.

Teams are starting to realise the danger that Latics pose as an attacking unit. Not only is the three pronged attack of Wildschut, Grigg and Jacobs a potent force, but Caldwell can also change things to playing the two big men – Davies and Holt – as twin strikers. Moreover he will shortly have the cultured left foot of Haris Vuckic available to provide balance. In each of the last two matches the opposition received five yellow cards to Wigan’s one, an indication of the tactics some managers will use to nullify Latics’ good football and attacking flair.

Providing there are no injuries we can expect Caldwell to field an unchanged starting lineup tomorrow. He now has such a wealth of players at his disposal that he will have to think hard not only about those who will start, but also those who will make the bench.

Power regards tomorrow’s match as the hardest away league game of the season for his team. Early next week he expects to step back to the boardroom, with the appointment of a new manager. He will be hoping for a surprise result tomorrow.

Caldwell will be aware of the banana skin that the game with Swindon represents and will be hoping for an early goal to set the tone. Should that happen then more would surely come, but should it not Latics will need to be patient and disciplined.

It promises to be a fascinating encounter.

A defence for promotion

SecondDiv

“I want to smash the division with 100 points”.

They could have been the words of Dave Whelan prior to the opening of the 2002-03 season. But they weren’t.  The comment, or something close to it,  was made by his grandson thirteen years later.

Wigan Athletic did smash the third tier – then known as the Second Division – in that 2002-03 season. They only lost four league games all season and finished with 100 points.

Although they played a 4-4-2 formation with attacking intent it was their superb defensive record that was their real strength. They conceded only 25 goals in 46 league matches.  Goalkeeper John Filan started in all 46 league matches. Central defenders Matt Jackson and Jason De Vos started in 45 and 43 respectively. Moreover right back Nicky Eaden made 37 league starts. That experienced and capable quartet was to provide the consistent defensive stability that their team needed to mount its promotion push.

“I guarantee you a 20 goal per season striker”.

The 2002-03 team did not have one, in the league at least, where Andy Liddell scored 16 and Nathan Ellington 15. But if cup games are included then Ellington’s total rises above the 20 mark.

We are already a third of the way through the 2015-16 season in League 1 and Latics have already lost three league games and conceded 18 goals. Although Will Grigg has already scored 6 goals and could well be the 20 goal striker that David Sharpe was seeking, even the young chairman would now surely admit that his 100 point prediction was a trifle over-optimistic. There is no way the current side is going to equal the achievement of its predecessor of 13 years ago. But that does not mean that they cannot achieve automatic promotion or even win the division.

The circumstances can hardly be more different. It had been Paul Jewell’s second season at Wigan following his previous three years in management at Bradford City and Sheffield Wednesday. Dave Whelan had given him the funds to lure experienced professionals who had played at higher levels to play in the third tier. Latics had never been higher than the third tier, but Jewell had managed to win the title by a 14 point margin. The club was very much “on the up” in those days.

Gary Caldwell took over with the club at low ebb. The rookie manager took charge for a handful of games in the Championship, but could not work miracles with the inadequate squad he had inherited and relegation happened. His remit then became huge. He was to almost completely rebuild the playing staff of the club, cut the wage bill drastically, bring back a style of football that typified “The Wigan Way” and to get promotion this season.

Although they are not on track to rival the record of the 2002-03 team, can Caldwell’s team nevertheless win promotion? Moreover if it does can Caldwell then emulate the achievements of Jewell by getting Latics to the Premier League?

Jewell’s second division title winning squad provided a strong base for the following two seasons in the second tier. Filan, Eaden and Jackson continued as defensive lynchpins, together with Ian Breckin who had been brought in later in the 2002-03 season. The young Leighton Baines was to establish himself as the first choice left back. Jimmy Bullard and Lee McCulloch were regulars in midfield and Gary Teale played on the right wing in most games. However, Jewell’s masterstroke was to sign Jason Roberts as a partner for the dynamic Ellington up front. The promotion winning team of 2004-05 once more had a backbone of players who seemed to play in almost every game. In fact no less than seven of them made 42 league starts or more.

With two 20 goals a season strikers in Ellington and Roberts,  Jewell’s 2004-05 team had scored more goals than the team that had “blown away” the third tier. But once again they had the best defensive record in the division, this time conceding just 35 goals.

The implications for Caldwell’s team are clear. Decide on your best back line and stick with it as much as you can. Defensive cohesion results through having a consistent backline. Moreover cultivate players who can do a good job for the club long-term, those who can raise their play to another level if the club gets promoted.

Given his remit at the end of the 2014-15 season Caldwell has done a remarkable job. His teams are playing a brand of football in style his chairman would call “The Wigan Way” and despite a huge turnover in playing staff they are already in the playoff zone. However, if he is going to have a backbone of players who can play week in-week out as those of the Jewell era did then he is going to hope that injuries do not rear their ugly head.

Jewell used 20 players in his division-smashing 2002-03 league season. Caldwell has already used 27 in league games just a third of the way through the season. It is only in recent games that the injury list has reduced. Now that is squad is almost fully active he is in a wonderful position compared with any other manager in the division. Caldwell and his colleagues have put together a squad good enough to win automatic promotion, providing injuries do not prove excessive. Moreover he has young players in the squad who are already showing signs that they can operate in a higher level. He has not only built a squad to challenge for promotion, but one that could provide the backbone for competing at the Championship level should they get the chance.

A settled backline appears crucial to the promotion chances. But that remains a work in progress. Caldwell has brought in Jassi Jaaskelainen to dominate the penalty area in a way that Richard O’Donnell had not previously been able to do.  But one wonders if O’Donnell might have saved some of the shots that the big Finn has let in. Moreover Jason Pearce has been bogged by injury problems, but is now back in contention. Is Caldwell willing to sacrifice Chris McCann’s superb distribution from the back for Pearce’s more reliable defending? Donervon Daniels has done a fine job in the right wing back position, but will he be moved back into his favoured place in the back three? Will Donald Love stake his place as an automatic choice at right wing back?

Over the coming matches Caldwell will surely look at establishing a consistent backline. The manager remains under constant pressure from fans to play attacking football, but as an ex-central defender he will surely recognise the need for defensive stability.

Latics currently have the seventh best defensive record in League 1. Lessons from the past tell us that it needs to improve significantly if the side is going to win promotion.

 

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Much depends on Grigg

Grigg

I guarantee we will have a 20 goal a season striker this season

So said David Sharpe in June. Was the young chairman suggesting Latics would have a striker who would score 20 goals in the season ahead? Or was he saying that they would be signing a player who had already scored 20 goals in a season?

Less than two weeks after Sharpe had made his statement free agent Craig Davies was signed from Bolton on a two year contract. A week after that Latics paid Brentford around £1m for Will Grigg, who penned a three year deal.

Both had been 20 goal strikers. The 29 year old Davies scored 23 goals for Chesterfield in their promotion season from League 2 in 2010-11. Despite still only being 24 years old Grigg had done it twice. In the 2012-13 season he scored 20 for Walsall, then last season he scored 23 for the MK Dons in their promotion from League 1 to the Championship.

Davies remains a formidable force and has already impressed Latics fans with his all-action performances. Sadly the hamstring problems that haunted him at Bolton have returned, this time in his left leg. The big striker is now back in training, but even the most optimistic of fans will need to cross their fingers that he can stay away from further such problems. Given the likelihood of him receiving further injuries few would bet on Davies being a 20 goal striker this season. Up to this point he has made five starts, with one appearance as a substitute, scoring two goals.

In Davies and Grigg, Latics had signed players with proven goalscoring records in the lower divisions of the Football League. However, they already had another on their books. Grant Holt is now 34 years old and has recently recovered from a serious injury, but will nevertheless be feared by League 1 defences because of his superb goalscoring record in the lower divisions. Holt has reached the 20 goal mark on four occasions, once for Rochdale, once for Shrewsbury and twice for Norwich. Holt is being gradually eased back into playing a full 90 minutes and Latics will surely not rush him. The big man from Carlisle could have a big part to play in the remainder of the season, providing he can stay fit.

However, if Latics were to have a 20 goal striker this season, the odds would surely be on Grigg. On signing him Gary Caldwell said “Will is the one we were after. He’s a goalscorer, that’s what he does and why we’ve signed him. There were other clubs in the chase, including from the Championship, but he’s chosen to come to us and we are very happy about it.

But with the season at its first quarter Grigg has struggled to reach the goalscoring form that Caldwell would have hoped for. He has scored three goals up to this point, two of which were penalties. After starting in the first six games he missed the Chesterfield match through being on international duty for Northern Ireland. He came back as a 66th minute substitute at Port Vale, but was to pick up an elbow injury which kept him out of the next two games. He made his return as a 77th minute substitute, scoring the equalizer during added-on time against Millwall. Grigg returned to the starting lineup for the next game against Walsall, but was substituted after 70 minutes. However, international call up knocked on the door again and Grigg has missed the last two matches at Crewe and Bury.

Grigg’s season at Wigan has therefore been stop-start up to this point. Caldwell has experienced the frustration of the player being unavailable for three matches without getting on the field of play for Northern Ireland on top of his elbow injury.

At this point last season at MK Dons, Grigg was playing as a lone centre forward in Karl Robinson’s preferred 4-2-3-1 system, alternating with Benik Afobe in that position. He had made six starts, with four appearances as a substitute, scoring six goals including two in the Don’s League Cup victory over Manchester United.

Up to this point Grigg has played in the lone striker role and as a twin striker at Wigan. Caldwell has talked with enthusiasm about the Grigg-Davies partnership. They have started together three times, the most memorable being in the 3-0 destruction of Scunthorpe. The physical presence of Davies creates more space for Grigg and they are Caldwell’s optimal striking duo. The manager also has Holt at hand to play a similar kind of role to Davies and it will be interesting to see if he links the two together at some point in tomorrow’s game against Colchester.

Caldwell also has the option of linklng Grigg together with the physically less imposing, but pacy, Jordy Hiwula. The enigmatic Sanmi Odelusi remains another possibility in a partnership with Grigg.

Up to this point Latics have scored 17 goals in 13 games. Grigg ties with Hiwula and Michael Jacobs in being leading goalscorer with three goals. Recent loan signing Yanic Wildschut has really caught the fans’ attention with two exciting performances, including a blockbuster that will be a contender for goal of the season at Crewe. Hopes are high that the Dutch winger can terrify League 1 defences and score goals. However, the player’s career record reads 16 goals in 132 appearances, a goalscoring ratio similar to that of Jacobs who has also played a s winger during most of his career.

If any Wigan Athletic player is to reach the 20 goal mark this season, it will most likely to be Grigg. He has done it before on two occasions at League 1 level. But Grigg is much more than a goalscorer, his intelligent play and passing enabling him to create chances for others.

Caldwell will surely be counting on Will Grigg as being a cornerstone of his bid for promotion back to the Championship.

 

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Progress report – Gary Caldwell

 

Caldwell2In early April the doom and gloom that was prevailing at Wigan Athletic was suddenly lifted. For so many months Wigan Athletic seemingly had no direction and leadership. But within a short amount of time Latics had a new chairman and a new manager, both young and hungry for success. Even if relegation were to happen there was now a sign of light at the end of the tunnel.

The new chairman had opted for a manager who believed in playing football the “Wigan way”. Moreover he intimated that the new manager would stay in the position long-term.

The 23 year old David Sharpe and the 32 year old Gary Caldwell were to launch the “new era” at the club.

It was a lovely mild spring evening on April 10th  when Caldwell made his managerial debut at Craven Cottage, which had rarely been a happy hunting ground for Wigan Athletic. The match against Fulham turned out to be an entertaining 2-2 draw and Latics were well worth their point. A win was just beyond their reach and relegation crept even closer. But the bright side was that, after just two days of training, Caldwell had got the team moving towards a brand of football reminiscent of the club’s best of times in the Premier League.

Latics went on to lose three of their next four matches and were relegated to League 1. However, few fans could blame Caldwell, who had inherited a team packed with journeymen and loanees. Relegation was a calamity, but there remained genuine hope that the new of Sharpe/Caldwell duo could put the club back on track after so sadly losing its way.

The last game of the season had been a miserable 3-0 defeat at Brentford, but Caldwell was to make a statement by bringing on the 18 year old Louis Robles and the 19 year old Jordan Flores for their first senior appearances after 64 minutes.  Moreover soon after his appointment Caldwell had brought 21 year old Tim Chow back to the club after he had been released by Malky Mackay. Chow has been given his debut at Millwall and gone on to score against Brighton in a 2-1 home win. Was this an indication that Caldwell would be using home-grown talent as a basis for the future?

Since that last match on May 2nd, so much has changed. Caldwell and Sharpe were clearly determined to jettison so many of the players of the previous era, whose Championship-level salaries could not be supported on a League 1 budget. Just a handful now remain.

Let’s take a look at Caldwell’s progress in the season so far. The grades go on a scale from A (excellent) to E (poor), with pluses and minuses indicating the top and bottom of the range (A+ being best possible, E- worst).

Success in the Transfer Market:  A-

Caldwell has done a remarkable job in moving on so many players from the previous era to make room for “hungry” new players to come in. The loanees returned to their clubs and none of the seven players at the ends of their contracts were to stay at the club. Nine players were sold, mostly at bargain-basement prices, and another four sent out on loan.

Latics now have an active first team squad of 29 players. It includes three “home grown” players, with five players remaining from last season’s senior squad. There are seven loanees and two players – Will Grigg and Reece James – for whom they have paid transfer fees around the £1m mark. The remainder were procured for bargain fees or at the ends of their previous contracts.

Caldwell’s squad has its share of experienced professionals, but it is packed with young players of potential. The £1.5 m received for the transfers of James McClean to West Bromwich Albion, together with the accumulation of smaller fees received for other players compensates for outgoing transfer fees. However, despite the continued presence of those five players on Championship-level salaries, Caldwell has drastically reduced the wage bill. Moreover four of those five have contracts that terminate in June 2016.

Caldwell has recruited 21 players since the beginning of May – a remarkable feat. Moreover he has brought in experienced players who have played in the Championship and Premier League, together with capable younger ones who can help form a foundation for the future. Having recruited such a large number of new players it was practically inevitable that he would have had to take a gamble on some who have had injury problems in the past years. However, only one of those is on a contract beyond June 2016, it terminating a year later.

The main frustration last season was with the players’ apparent unwillingness to fight for the cause. At times so many of them just did not seem to care. However, Caldwell’s squad has a different mentality – a fighting spirit and an unwillingness to give up when even two goals behind. It is a testament to his ability in finding the “right type “of player.

Public Relations: – A

Caldwell is a bright and eloquent young manager, seemingly unbowed by the prospect of being peppered with awkward questions, whether it be in an open fan forum or from the media. He is not only eloquent, but bold in enunciating his philosophy of football. For a 32 year old manager in his first job he is impressive.

Caldwell clearly believes that what he is doing is the right way forward for Wigan Athletic, even if he recognises that it remains a work in progress. It is through his belief that he has the strength of character to stand up there and put his head in the firing line.

Results so far: – B

Latics are currently in 10th place in League 1 after 12 matches. At home their record is W3 D3 L0, with an away record of W1 D2 L3. They were knocked out of the League Cup by Bury, but remain in the Johnstone Paints Trophy.

Given the high proportion of new players in the squad it is not surprising that results up to this point have not reached most fans’ expectations.

There has been a welcome change in an upturn in home form, but the away results have been disappointing.

Results over the next couple of months are likely to remain unpredictable, with the players needing more time to gel as a team.

Latics need to be in at least a mid-table position by the end of December if they are going to make a push towards promotion.

The Balance and Quality of the Playing Squad: – A

Caldwell has done well in making sure that there are at least two players competing for every position. On paper the squad is strong enough to gain automatic promotion.

All of his permanent signings are British, except for the Finnish goalkeeper Jaaskelainen who has been in England a long time. He has loan players from Guinea-Bissau, Holland and Slovenia.

The squad is particularly well stocked in the area of midfield. There are a more than a handful of players who can play the of a twin striker role, although there are fewer suited to a lone centre forward role.

With probably the largest squad in the division Latics will be well positioned compared with other clubs in mid-season when the injuries start to reel in. But the downside is that with a squad so large Caldwell will have to adopt a rotation policy to give all those players game time. The alternative is to have disgruntled players, as with what happened last year under Uwe Rosler.

The squad is bristling with the highest proportion of young players we have seen at Wigan for some years. There is a lot of talent, which augurs well for the future, but the team continues to suffer through their inconsistencies. There is an old adage that young players need time, but can Caldwell offer them that, given the pressure to achieve promotion?

Tactics and Team Selection: – B-

Not surprisingly, given injury problems and the need to rotate a large squad, Caldwell has used 30 players so far, including Jonjoe Kenny who has now returned to Everton.

The critics will say that Caldwell does not know his most favoured starting eleven. However, given the number of injuries suffered by his players it is doubtful if he would have ever been able to do field his strongest eleven , even if he did know it. Then again he would still need to shuffle his pack on a regular basis due to the size of his squad.

Caldwell is a rookie manager learning the job. Like any newcomer on the scene he has made mistakes, but his long-term view and his belief that his players can achieve is to be commended.

Some fans will say that Caldwell lacks courage in his approach and affords the other teams too much respect. They urge him to attack the opposition from the start. They will say that the slow build-up from the back involving passing between defenders allows the other team time to regroup. Moreover the result of defenders trying to pass the ball among themselves too often leads to the opposition intercepting the ball or a pass back to the goalkeeper and a punt upfield conceding possession.

They will say that possession means nothing, that it is goals that count. Some look back to the days of 4-4-2 with twin strikers of the ilk of Ellington and Roberts terrifying opposition defences. In away games Caldwell has constantly lined up with a lone centre forward who has been unable to make an impact given poor service and support from midfield. Moreover the defence has leaked too many goals that were preventable, being particularly vulnerable to crosses and set pieces. They cite the stunning late turnarounds, when Latics have been trailing and have come back in the final quarter “guns a blazing”. Could they not have done that from the start?

However, there are parallels to the Martinez area, when similar issues were so often raised, especially in the early days. Like Martinez, Caldwell clearly has a strong belief in his approach. In flashes Latics’ football under the Scot has been a joy to watch. What is missing is consistency. Possession football can wear the opposition down, leaving them vulnerable in the final quarter of the game. However, no matter what the style of football you need a solid defence, a midfield that can push forward to create chances and forwards who are capable of converting them to goals.

Caldwell can hardly be accused of tactical rigidity or being cautious in the use of substitutes. He has used 3-5-2, 3-4-3, 4-4-2 and even 4-2-4 in the closing part of the game. He has typically used his bench earlier in the game than his recent predecessors. What has hurt Caldwell most up to this point has been the absence of key defenders and forwards through injuries and suspensions, together with so many numbing refereeing decisions that have gone against his team.

On Saturday the Bury manager was upset with the referee for sending off one of his players after he had committed two professional fouls, each deserving of a yellow card. For once the tactical fouling of the opposition was punished by a referee. Sadly the norms of arbitrage in League 1 are worryingly low and too many cynical challenges go unpunished.

Wigan Athletic are a big name in the division and other teams will try to raise their game to beat them. Latics will come across teams who will employ whatever means necessary to stop their more talented players. However, the “big name” aspect can also cause teams to wilt when Latics really attack them. What is lacking is the collective confidence in the Latics squad to do that from the start. So often midfielders will take the easy option with a pass backwards or across the pitch. They are playing for their places and are afraid to make mistakes.

Playing 4-2-4 is so exciting to watch, but in the modern game it is a last resort. No manager is going to go into a match with that formation, let alone a rookie like Caldwell. However, when your team is behind and the opposition is tired near the end of the 90 minutes it is a viable option.

Areas to work on

Caldwell has done well to put together a squad that matches that of any other in the division. Providing he gets the best out of his players, promotion back to the Championship remains a possibility.

In order to succeed in League 1 a club needs quality players who are not easily deterred and ready to fight for the 50-50 ball at all times. It is something that Caldwell has clearly been instilling into his players, more than half of whom had never previously played in League 1. Many are still adjusting to the pace and physicality of the play in a division where tackles are tolerated that would draw red or yellow cards in the Championship or Premier League.

Caldwell needs to reduce his squad size to alleviate the need for constant rotation of his lineups. Although arguments can be made that injuries have played a big part, using 30 players up to this point is excessive. He needs to identify the players who make up his core lineup and play them together on a regular basis, injuries permitting. Moreover chopping and changing between different tactical formations is not helping players gel as a unit. The players have not only had to adapt to his preferred style of play, but also frequent changes in shape.

Caldwell deserves commending for giving youth a chance, but there is some validity in  the phrase “kids don’t win promotion”. When he has the bulk of his most capable and experienced players at his disposal he must use the youngsters more sparingly.

Caldwell and his squad need more time. It is simply too much to expect a group of players recently put together to gel into a fully functional unit at this stage. However, Caldwell clearly believes that with time it will come together. The question is – how much time will it take?

The hope is that maybe a couple of months from now Caldwell’s team will ramp up its gears, taking the game to the opposition from the start. It is the collective confidence that is lacking, but having played high-flying teams like Bury and Walsall in recent matches the players will surely have learned there are no teams to fear in the division.

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