Category Archives: Other

Can Wigan Athletic do it again? A survival analysis

Posted by Ned in News, Other, Reflections and tagged with , , , , , , , , , , ,

As Latics supporters, we’re used to being written off before a ball is kicked. Wigan will finally go down this year, we’re told every year. Yet somehow this fantastic little club clings to its Premier League status again and again — we’ve become survival specialists. It was no mean feat under Paul Jewell, an enthusiasm-fueled season like Norwich are enjoying at the moment. Or under Steve Bruce, when he totally revived a team of strugglers and misfits. But in the Martinez era, it has been achieved on half the budget, allowing the club to allocate funds toward youth development and long-term sustainability.

Indeed the worst case scenario, that of relegation, is a lot less worrying than it was three years ago. The squad is deep and young, with few big name players on heavy wage packets. Latics would probably lose three or four quality players — Rodallega, Diame, Moses, and perhaps James McCarthy — but would still have a very competent side capable of winning the Championship. As evidence, Callum McManaman, who can’t buy playing time with the current squad, starred during his loan stint at Blackpool, who are 4th in said league. Nouha Dicko, yet to feature for the first team at Wigan, scored on his debut for the Seasiders several days ago. Jordi Gomez was far and away voted the best player in the Championship last time he played in it.

All this said, incredibly — despite a cruel fixture list featuring the newly promoted teams in days 1, 2 and 3; a stretch of back-to-back games over Christmas against big four opposition; an 8-match losing steak; a (separate) 9-match winless streak — we’re not down yet.

In fact, we’ve hung in there just long enough that opportunity knocks, and real optimism is brewing. It’s tighter this year than last, when more teams got sucked into the battle. But this year it will take less points. We are essentially in a five-team relegation mini-league at the bottom of the table, cut adrift from the other 15 not only by 7 points but a gulf in quality. Aston Villa will not get relegated despite Alex McLeish’s best efforts, nor will Fulham, Stoke or West Brom. Three of them have too much quality, and the other has Roy Hodgson. The best bet for anyone else joining the party appeared to be a collapse in form from one of the newly promoted sides, but Swansea’s strength at home should keep them safe, while Norwich are already only about two wins away from safety.

So we’re looking at a mini-league between QPR, Blackburn, Wolves, Bolton and ourselves, with the top two surviving.

The Opposition:

Bolton were poor last Saturday, with no imagination going forward and a leaky defense that Victor Moses ran rings around. The loss of Gary Cahill only makes things worse for them. The decline of Kevin Davies, coupled with the departure of Johan Elmander, has stripped them of firepower.

Wolves have been looking pretty poor too, but are likely to benefit from the galvanizing effect a new manager, after Mick McCarthy was sacked. Potential replacement Alan Curbishley has been out of the game for a while but is a decent manager, Steve Bruce has rescued teams before and Wolves’ squad would certainly suit his style.

QPR, I suspect, will win the mini-league. They bought proven quality, and Mark Hughes is a good manager. It’s hard to see a team featuring experienced players like Sean Wright-Phillips, Bobby Zamora, Joey Barton, Luke Young, Djibril Cisse going down. Look at their squad. That said, they play the top six in their last 13 matches, so there is little margin for error.

Blackburn are a bizarre bunch. Steve Kean is out of his depth, but has somehow turned an ageing, injury-prone Everton striker into a goal machine, something Harry Redknapp also gambled on with immediate success at White Hart Lane with Louis Saha. Take away Yak or Pedersen, however, and Blackburn are in trouble. Hard to predict. The away fixture at Ewood Park looms large.

A Favorable Fixture List:

Of the 13 matches left, only four are games we probably can’t win — Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal away, and Man United at home. Any points here would be a huge bonus. Of the remaining eight fixtures, six are at home against teams we are good enough to beat: Aston Villa, Swansea, West Brom, Stoke, Newcastle, Wolves. Leaving just Norwich, Fulham and Blackburn away, tough matches but in the scheme of things not that daunting. The normal 40 point target looks difficult to achieve, but everyone’s point total in the bottom five is so low that I doubt any more than 35 will be necessary.

Villa (H), Swansea (H), Norwich (A), WBA (H), Liverpool (A), Stoke (H), Chelsea (A), Man Utd (H), Arsenal (A), Fulham (A), Newcastle (H), Blackburn (A), Wolves (H)

* Wigan and QPR play 7 home games; Blackburn, Bolton and Wolves only play 6 more at home.

* Wigan have by far the most favourable crucial last game of the season: Chelsea – Blackburn, Wigan – Wolves, Stoke – Bolton, Man City – QPR

* Assuming the following big six: Man Utd, Man City, Arsenal, Spurs, Chelsea and Liverpool — QPR has the worst fixtures, facing them all. Wolves and Blackburn play five of them. Wigan faces four of them,  Bolton only face three.

A Fit Squad, Raring to Go:

Martinez spoke last season of the importance of youth and fitness in the season run-in. Having struggled with injuries in the first half of the season, it appears the squad is fit and ready for the run-in. Key players such as Emmerson Boyce, Antolin Alcaraz, Hugo Rodallega all missed significant time earlier in the season but are now in the clear. Shaun Maloney recently completed 90 minutes for the reserves and was quoted as saying he is ready to push for a place in the first team. Competition in midfield is outstanding, with James McArthur staking his claim but Mo Diame returning from the African Cup of Nations, and Ben Watson — untouchable in the lineup this time last year — on the fringes. The bench against Bolton including Ronnie Stam, Albert Crusat, Mo Diame, Ben Watson, Dave Jones and Hugo Rodallega must rank as the strongest in the club’s history, and  people like Shaun Maloney, Hendry Thomas, Conor Sammon, Callum McManaman didn’t even dress. The only truly irreplaceable player is Ali Al-Habsi.

#keeptheFaith

Few people expected us to be within 2 points of 16th place at this stage of the season given the horrific form before Christmas and fixtures that followed. There is still a lot wrong with the team, in particular in front of goal. But with a bit of luck in the injury and suspensions department, continued improvement from Victor Moses’ final ball, and favourable results elsewhere, we might just live the dream once again. Here’s hoping…

Blind optimist? Spot on? Leave a comment.

Bolton 1 Wigan Athletic 2: Vital win kickstarts revival

Posted by Ned in Match Reports, News, Other and tagged with , , , , , , , , , , ,

Wigan Athletic took a giant step towards revival (and survival?) with a 2-1 success over Bolton at the Reebok Stadium. A loss would have cut Latics eight points adrift and delivered a probably fatal blow to the side’s morale. Instead, the gap between the bottom five has been narrowed to an encouraging two points. Better still, the squad has a tasty fixture list coming up including three home fixtures against Aston Villa, Swansea and West Brom, with a trip to Norwich in between. Without getting ahead of ourselves, things are suddenly looking up at the DW.

Martinez’s men started slowly but started to take control of the match about 20 minutes in. Franco Di Santo, working hard up front with little service, received the ball deep and weaved before fizzing a powerful attempt just over and wide. Victor Moses embarked on a mazy trademark run, crashing a left-footed effort into the side netting (a trademark finish). Bolton’s approaches were largely limited to set pieces and hopeful shooting from outside the box, while Latics enjoyed the lion’s share of the possession. Pressure finally told when Gary Caldwell impressively beat David Wheater — who must have at least 5 inches on the Scot — in the air to power home a Jean Beausejour corner late in the first half. 1-0 Wigan at half-time.

The second half started in much the same vein, with Latics closer to a second than Bolton to an equalizer. A couple of penalty shouts that Howard Webb would have awarded Man United without second thought went unnoticed before Victor Moses spectacularly lost his man down the right flank and delivered the perfect final pass for James McArthur, who could only tap straight into Bolton’s Hungarian keeper’s arms. It was the kind of killer pass that Moses has so often been unable to pick out this season, instead going for glory himself or hesitating at the last second. Roberto spoke about the work they are doing with him on the training ground to address these situations in particular, lets hope it is a sign of things to come.

It was soon deja vu, and with the chance to go 2-0 up spurned, Bolton pull an equalizer out of a hat. The buildup was classic Bolton stuff — a mighty hoof from Adam Bogdan bouncing off the unwitting David N’gog’s back. But the finish was sublime, a left-footed thunderbolt from the underrated Mark Davies. James McArthur later expressed his relief at scoring the winner because Davies was his man. But there was little he could do on this one, and it spoke volumes of Jimmy Mac’s performance that he kept Davies quiet for the rest of the match.

The response was immediate. Latics went for it. With Rodallega now on the pitch, you could see a wave of Latics players pushing forward when Victor Moses broke free on the left and ran through unopposed. His low shot had enough power for the carrot-haired Bogdan to spill it straight into the path of the sprinting James McArthur. This time, the Scot made no mistake and you could see what it meant to the players as they celebrated in front of Latics’ traveling support.

There was a final scare when the impressive Ryo Miyaichi found space in the box after neat interplay and fired off a shot, but Ali Al-Habsi was at his best to deny him a debut goal. Latics created a couple half chances on the counter, but a confused-looking Rodallega made a mess of them. Latics’ defending was steady, on set pieces in particular — enjoying the extra height and defensive nous of Emmerson Boyce at right wing-back, in addition to the three centre-halves — and they held on for three points of gold.

The Good:

The performance and result. They dominated, passed the ball well, Victor Moses created at least three goal-scoring opportunities from open play, and the defending was strong. The commitment and desire matched that of Latics’ spectacular season run-in last year. McCarthy and McArthur were lions in midfield, everyone played their part in a good team win.

The Bad:

The game should have been killed off well before Bolton’s equalizer, and it highlights Latics continued lack of confidence in front of goal. A better team — like Everton a week prior — might have punished Latics’ wastefulness. Jordi Gomez, there to provide that killer pass, was unable to create anything of note. Aside from Moses, the best chances of the game fell to Emmerson Boyce and James McArthur, hardly known for their finishing.

A Neutral Would Say

Latics were good value for the three points here, with Victor Moses in particular proving a headache for a lacklustre Bolton side.

Player Ratings

Al Al-Habsi: 8 —  Didn’t have much to do, but made a match-winning save when called upon.

Antolin Alcaraz: 7 — Solid, kept it simple.

Gary Caldwell: 8 — Defended strongly and made the important breakthrough when Latics were struggling to find a way through.

Maynor Figueroa: 7 — Decent defensive performance.

Emmerson Boyce: 7 — A good choice by Martinez for a game of such importance. Provides less going forward than Ronnie Stam, but made an important contribution.

Jean Beausejour: 7.5 — Faded in the second half, but added another assist to his tally and was involved in much Latics attacking play in the first half. Proving a useful signing.

James McArthur: 8 — A selfless team player, he tackled well, distributed efficiently, and must have covered every blade of grass at the Reebok. The winning goal was great reward for his efforts. Has less in his arsenal than both Mo Diame and Ben Watson offensively but makes up for it in attitude. Very encouraging to see a midfielder busting a gut to get into goalscoring positions as he did twice in this match.

James McCarthy: 7.5 — Showed one moment of true class with a sharp half volley pass to Jean Beausejour in the first half. Fantastic work-rate, good distribution.

Jordi Gomez: 6 — Instrumental in keeping possession but ultimately didn’t create enough.

Victor Moses: 8 — Bolton couldn’t handle him. A constant menace, he created the winning goal and should have had an assist after serving it up on a platter for McArthur early in the second half.

Franco Di Santo: 7 — Did his job well, had a great effort from distance, but no real scoring chances.

Subs:

Hugo Rodallega: 4 — Didn’t know what day it was. Looked confused when given the ball. A shame, because he found himself in good positions and might have killed the game off.

Dave Jones: N/A — Wasted 45 seconds coming on for Di Santo, good man.

BOLTON WANDERERS-WIGAN ATHLETIC PREVIEW – HANGING AROUND THE DARK SIDE

Posted by JJ (Tony) in Other and tagged with , , ,

Yet another “must win” match for Wigan Athletic? If they lose to Bolton on Saturday are they doomed to go down? Would a draw be a good result? Wigan Athletic are hanging around the dark side, close to the abyss. But so are Bolton. Neither side wants to lose this one.

Bolton Wanderers lie in 18th position, with 20 points, four ahead of Wigan Athletic. They have won 2 out of 12 home matches this season. They have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 league matches. One could say this was an ideal time to play them at the Reebok Stadium. However, Bolton have not lost in their last 8 meetings with Wigan. Last time the teams played, at the DW Stadium in mid October, Bolton had lost 11 of their first 12 matches, but still managed to beat us 3-1. Last time we beat them at the Reebok was in 2008.

What lies in store on Saturday? Is it going to be a turning point for Wigan or another nail in their coffin? Which team can better manage the “fear factor” or at least scrape out a win? To be frank, given the current form of both teams this match could go either way.

Wigan have 16 points from 24 matches so far. In the past three seasons the team finishing in 17th place and surviving the drop was as follows – 2010-11 Wolves (with 40 points), 2009-2010 West Ham (35 points), 2008-2009, Hull City (35 points). If Latics are to reach even the lower 35 point figure they will need 19 points from the last 14 matches. This is an achievable target, providing they play close to their potential. Last season they got 20 points from their last 14 matches with the record of W5 D5 L4. Three of those losses were against Manchester United, Manchester City and Chelsea.

Would 35 points be enough providing Latics could reach that total? That would largely depend on how the other struggling teams were to fare over the coming months. The bottom five teams are currently within a five point range of each other. There is then a gap of another five points between 15th and 16th place. It is not unusual for a team well above the danger zone at this start of the season to go into freefall and finish in a relegation place. However, the probability is that 3 of today’s bottom 5 teams are going to be relegated. It is therefore critical that Latics get good results in their upcoming “6 pointers” against Bolton, Blackburn and Wolves. They have already shared the honours with QPR, winning one and losing one. Given this scenario it is no wonder that so many Latics supporters consider the Bolton game to be a “must win”. To lose would put Bolton 7 points ahead of them, pushing Wigan closer and closer to relegation.

What of Wigan’s lineup and tactics for this match? It appears that Franco Di Santo is fit again after getting injuries in his last two matches. Roberto Martinez seems to be pretty upbeat about Hugo Rodallaga coming good again now the transfer window is over. He is the only player with any kind of proven goalscoring record in the squad. I expect him to play but implore Martinez not to play him on the left wing where he is so ineffective. He needs to be in the centre. Many Latics followers, myself included, would love to see two central strikers playing together. Di Santo and Rodallega could make a fine combination. However, this would mark a paradigm shift in Martinez’ s thinking and is therefore unlikely. We can only live in hope.

As always let’s keep the faith! Latics are by no means dead and buried at this stage and can turn things around, as they did last season. Let’s go into the match with a positive lineup and try to win it!

WIGAN ATHLETIC 1 EVERTON 1 – A BORE DRAW

Posted by JJ (Tony) in Other and tagged with ,

Was this going to be the turning point for the season? Wigan Athletic up by a goal after 76 minutes. Victor Moses runs through with Crusat in a great position. Moses decides to go it alone and the chance to kill off the game is lost. Soon after Everton get their equalizer as Jones and Boyce watch Anichebe leap to glance a header into the net.

Those five minutes were the highlight of a dire contest for the spectator. Harsh weather conditions hardly helped. Everton can scarcely be called an attractive team. Their strategy is based on strong defence. They tend to pick goals up from set plays, especially in the second half. Latics never really looked like scoring against that miserly Everton defence, but for once got a slice of luck, with Neville and Howard conspiring to give away a bizarre own goal. It was that slice of luck we had all been waiting for – the chance to turn around the season after another long winless streak. Alas, it was not to be.

The stats for the match show that Wigan enjoyed 52% of the possession and committed 15 fouls to Everton’s 12. Both teams had 10 shots but the reality was that neither keeper was kept busy. This was a classic bore draw, with neither side able to muster any consistent attacking threat.

The Good

The good is that Latics did not lose. However, this columnist does not agree with the sentiment that this was a point gained. You have to be able to beat mid table teams like Everton if you want to maintain your Premier League status.

The Bad

Once again Wigan’s centre forward was lone in the extreme. Both modified systems –  4-3-3 and 5-3-2 –  allow the possibility of wide players coming forward to attack. The 5-3-2 becomes 3-5-2 when you give your wing backs due licence to play further forward. Put simply it is not the system that is letting Latics down in terms of goalscoring, but their reluctance to put sufficient players into more forward positions. Look at when Latics get the ball in wide positions deep into their opponents half. No matter how well a winger or wing back can cross the ball there have to be bodies inside the box to score. Moreover those players in the box need to attack the ball, rather than wait for it passively. How demoralizing it must be for players like Ronnie Stam to put in beautifully crafted crosses with no end result. The same applies to set pieces. We have the worst record in the division for scoring off set pieces. Our players seem to have lost the ability to aggressively head the ball towards goal. Moreover the delivery of corners and free kicks leaves much to be desired. Oh for a Ryan Taylor or Seb Larsson to take our set pieces.

The reluctance to put more players forward is the hallmark of a struggling team. The risk of losing a goal to counter attack is real and scary to a team lacking in self confidence. However, if you genuinely want to win a match you have to risk losing goals to counter attacks. Latics are at the point of the season where draws are not sufficient. They need to start winning games. A positive spin can be put on the draw in this match by looking at it as not losing, after a string of four successive defeats. There is some validity to that argument, but the time for spin is no more – time is marching out on us – let’s go in to win matches and not be content with a draw. The fear factor needs to be overcome.

Player Ratings

Ali Al Habsi: 6 – For once he had little to do!

Ronnie Stam:6 – Not his best performance, although surprisingly substituted after 65 minutes.

Emmerson Boyce: 5 – Steady but not at his best.

Gary Caldwell: 6 – Marshalled the defence, led by example.

Maynor Figueroa: 5 – Steady but not at his best.

Jean Beausejour: 6 – Worked hard, showing nice touches.

James McCarthy: 6 – Worked hard in front of the defence, but we need to see more of him in attack.

James McArthur: 7 – Showed great commitment: a real team player.

Jordi Gomez: 4 – Poor, justifiably taken off after 64 minutes.

Victor Moses: 4 – Poor. Too often runs head-down into blind alleys.

Franco Di Santo: 5 – Tried hard, but to little effect. Taken off after 69 minutes. Hardly ever plays the full 90 minutes or completes a run of consecutive games. A stop-start season for him.

Substitutes

David Jones: – Came on as substitute for Stam. Looked out of place on the right hand side.

Hugo Rodallega: – Came on for Gomez. Showed commitment and got into some decent positions.

Albert Crusat: – Came on for Di Santo after 69 minutes. Did what he could with little service.

WIGAN ATHLETIC-EVERTON PREVIEW – A GET AWAY FROM THE DARK SIDE?

Posted by JJ (Tony) in Other and tagged with ,

The last time Wigan Athletic won at home was on August 27th, when they beat Queens Park Rangers 2-0. They have not won any of their last 9 matches at the DW Stadium. Everton are currently in 10th place and have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their away games. However, they have only won one of their last 5 away games. Since joining the Premier League Latics have beaten Everton only once at home.

Another “must win” match for Wigan? We seem to have been saying that for some time, but a win over Everton could be a real turning point. Everton are a mid table team at the moment and Latics need to be able to beat teams like that to stay up. Latics have four home games remaining against teams who are currently lying below Everton in the table – Aston Villa (currently 12th), Swansea (14th), WBA (15th) and Wolves (19th) – in addition to those against Manchester United (2nd), Newcastle (5th) and Stoke (9th).

Mohamed Diame is due to return for Wigan following Senegal’s disappointing showing in the African Nations Cup. There is a chance of David Jones being fit and his experience of playing in the left wing back position might well put him ahead of Jean Beausejour if they play the three centre back system. Hugo Rodallega is likely to return, hopefully at centre forward – where despite his lean spell – he is more likely to score than either Di Santo or Sammon. Antolin Alcaraz may be fit and this could pose a selection dilemma for Martinez, with Boyce, Caldwell and Figueroa being the last custodians of the centre back positions.

A lucky deflected shot, a bad penalty, an own goal, a red card – any of these could help Latics overcome Everton if they were to go in our favour. An ounce or two of luck is what we need. Everton are a very well organized team, with a miserly defence which has conceded only 26 goals in 23 matches. They get a lot of goals from set plays and most of their goals come in the second half. They have been perked up by the return of the excellent Landon Donovan from Los Angeles and Steven Pienaar from Tottenham. They have a desperately needed new centre forward in Nikica Jelavic, a 6 ft. 2 in. Croatian, plus Darron Gibson from Manchester United. As has often happened to Wigan this season they are unlucky in having to play a team whose confidence has been boosted, not only with their new arrivals, but also in their 1-0 win over league leaders Manchester City. However, Everton are not one of those top six clubs who throw around monopoly money and compete for the world’s best. They are step below that and are definitely beatable.

One can understand the doom and gloom pervading the blue side of Wigan. Results have been awful this season and points have been thrown away by reckless and frustrating individual errors. However, one can watch the other relegation candidates play and see similar patterns in their performances. What a pity we had those horrible results against Bolton, Blackburn, Wolves and QPR. In each match the other team looked as nervous as Wigan did, but things just did not work out for us. However, those clubs remain in the relegation mire and all we need to do is finish above them and we are safe. The nerves are jangling not only in Wigan. We play three of those teams again before the end of the season, classic “six pointers” that can make a huge difference if we win them.

Let’s go into this game with the right approach. This means putting out a balanced lineup (with players in their natural positions), putting in the sweat and toil needed to close down the other team’s options, but more than anything else – really trying to win the game. Draws are not sufficient at this stage. I am going to stick my neck out here and predict a win for Wigan Athletic. Let’s keep the faith and get away from that dark side!