Category Archives: Reflections

Can Latics hold their nerve for automatic promotion?

Posted by JJ (Tony) in Match Previews, Reflections and tagged with , , , , , , , , , ,

In March 2014 Uwe Rosler’s Wigan Athletic team were challenging for a playoff place in the Championship division. During that month they went on to amass 14 points from their 7 games, losing only one by a 1-0 margin at QPR. They looked odds-on to reach that playoff place, which they did finally achieve, but not without a stutter as they picked up just 11 points from their last 9 matches.

Rosler’s team had peaked too early and just could not maintain their form over the final six weeks of the season. They put up spirited displays in the semi-final of the playoffs against QPR, but just could not show the kind of intensity they had shown a couple of months earlier.

Gary Caldwell’s team too has been peaking, going on a 14 game unbeaten run. Their last defeat was against Blackpool on December 12th. Have they peaked too early? Can they hold their nerve and get an automatic promotion place?

Burton Albion’s defeat at Bradford on Tuesday evening could well prove to be a turning point for what remains of the season. They still stand four points ahead of Wigan Athletic, but significantly they no longer have games in hand. After being so consistent for so long is there a chink in Burton’s armour? They have now only won one out of their last five matches.

The most optimistic of Wigan Athletic fans are now seriously talking about their team winning the division. Burton have some tricky fixtures coming up in the final 11 games of the season. Four of those are against teams currently in the top six promotion zone – Millwall (A), Latics (H), Barnsley (H) and Gillingham (H).

Other than having to play at Burton, Latics have to play just one other team from the current top six – Barnsley (H) on the last day of the season.

This current Wigan Athletic team is capable of beating any other team in team in League 1, Burton included. They are have the capability to go the remainder of the season unbeaten. But they are also capable of producing poor results against teams they would be expected to beat. In recent home games they have failed to beat struggling Oldham and Peterborough and a 1-1 draw at Crewe in late January was disappointing.  But it was the shock 1-0 home defeat to Blackpool in mid-December that sparked the surging run they are on at the moment.

In their last 6 league games Latics have won 3 and drawn 3, an average of 2 points per game. Of the other teams in the top six only Barnsley have done better with 13 points, followed by Millwall on 11 points, Burton on 8, Gillingham on 5 and Walsall on 3.

Looking at stats for games played up to this point  it looks like the teams gaining automatic promotion this season will need less points than has been the norm over the past decade. It has been the kind of season where teams are closer in level, where they can quickly climb up or abruptly slide down the table within half a dozen games. However, for Latics to gain automatic promotion they are likely to need at least 86 points. That would require an average of 2 points in each of the remaining eleven matches.

Tomorrow’s game at Colchester is another of those potential banana skins upon which Latics have slipped several times this season. In their last six games Colchester’s record is LDLDWL. They lie in bottom place ten points from safety and have won just three home games this season.

All teams tend to have injury problems at this time of year and Wigan Athletic are no exception. Michael Jacobs and Reece James have been out long term and are still recuperating. Jussi Jaaskelainen is likely to return following concussion received against Peterborough, but both Conor McAleny and Jason Pearce are doubtful for tomorrow.

Caldwell commented this week that  “Whilst it’s a big disappointment to have players out, it’s an opportunity for other players to come in and show what they can do. It’s up to those players who haven’t been playing but have been asking to play and wanting to play to be ready for the opportunities.”

One of those players the manager could be referring to is Kevin McNaughton, who completed a full 90 minutes for the development squad on Tuesday. The Scot may not start at Colchester but could come on later in the game. Haris Vuckic is also due to reappear at some stage.

In addition to potential injuries Caldwell is likely to lose Will Grigg to the Northern Ireland squad for their friendly matches on March 24 and 28. Craig Davies is the obvious replacement, although he has not completed a full game for a long time.

Now is the time for Latics to hold their nerve and let the other teams cut each other’s throats. A late season dip in form like that which happened to Rosler’s team is what they must guard against.

 

 

 

Frustrations in co-existing with a rugby club

Posted by JJ (Tony) in Reflections and tagged with , , , ,

A couple of weeks ago Wigan Warriors met the Catalan Dragons in a televised match at the DW Stadium.  The events that followed have once again brought to the surface the latent frictions between followers of the two codes, the ground-sharing issue once again being hotly debated.

The pundits said that the rugby match would have been postponed had it not been on television. The DW pitch was already in poor condition after the constant rains that had fallen over recent months. Allowing a rugby game to be played in atrocious conditions caused so much further damage that a couple of days later David Sharpe was to take drastic action by installing a brand new surface within the week that followed.

The social media message boards were buzzing. Some Latics fans advocated evicting the rugby club; others questioned why towns like Huddersfield and Hull don’t have the same types of problems with their pitches. However, it is understood that the control of the DW Stadium rests in the hands of the Whelan family, not Wigan Athletic itself. Moreover we are told that the rugby club was given a 50 year lease on using it.

Theories abound as to why the pitch has been so problematic since the opening of the stadium in 1999. The common view is that it was built on marshy, reclaimed land close to a river and a canal, so how could we expect any better? Another claim is that there is a large cesspit beneath it, from which gases rise over the winter months, poisoning the grass above.

The bottom line is that Sharpe has invested a significant amount of money in providing a new pitch for the short term, with more work to be done over the summer. The new pitch looked remarkably good for the Oldham match last Saturday, although the players will have found some difficulty adjusting to the longer grass, which could not be cut to normal length at the time because of its newness.

Sharpe’s investment will surely help Gary Caldwell’s players in their quest for promotion. Having to play on a quagmire would have seriously damaged Latics’ promotion chances, given their preferred style of possession football. But more rugby games are coming up as the football season continues.

The recent announcement that the Warriors home game with Salford has been moved forward a day to Thursday, February 25th has brought indignation from their fans. Latics have a home game with Bury on Saturday, the 27th. Warriors’ chairman, Ian Lenegan, eloquently discusses the fixture schedule complications that caused the rearrangement of the match on YouTube.

The upcoming matches at the DW are now:

Sat, Feb 20 – Warriors v Brisbane

Thurs, Feb 25 – Warriors v Salford

Sat, Feb 27 – Latics v Bury

Sat, March 5 – Latics v Peterborough

In 2011 we published an article called “1932 and all that – is Wigan a rugby town?”

The intention was to examine the more recent history of both Wigan Athletic and Wigan Warriors, looking at attendance trends in particular.

From 1932 to 1978 a look at attendances would appear to an outsider that rugby was the dominant force in the town, although a significant number of Wiganers would typically travel to Liverpool and Manchester to watch top flight football. After achieving Football League status in 1978, Latics’ average attendance went up five fold in that first season, the average of 6,701 eclipsing the 4,505 average of their rugby counterparts for the first time.

However, it was Latics’ entry into the Premier League in 2005 that was to give them dominance in terms of attendance. Even after relegation to the Championship their attendances held up in the first year, only to fall below the rugby last season

Football season Rugby season Wigan Athletic Wigan Warriors
2005-06 2006 20,160 14,464
2006-07 2007 18,159 16,040
2007-08 2008 19,045 13,995
2008-09 2009 18,350 14,080
2009-10 2010 17,848 15,181
2010-11 2011 16,976 16,125
2011-12 2012 18,634 16,043
2012-13 2013 19,375 13,556
2013- 14 2014 15,176 14,102
2014-15 2015 12,882 13,980

Can a small town like Wigan support two aspiring clubs?

In terms of attendance the highest ever aggregate of the two clubs’ attendances was 34,677 in the 2011-12 football season/2012 rugby season. The contrast with 1977-78 season is stunning, with the rugby club averaging 5,544 and Latics 1,334 in their last season in the Northern Premier League.

Latics current average attendance of in League 1 of 8,679 will surely be eclipsed by the Warriors this year. However, should promotion back to the Championship occur, history suggests that they would compete on an even keel with the rugby team next season.

In terms of attendances it appears that both clubs can co-exist. It is the prickly question of ground-sharing that is the more urgent issue. Questions remain whether the pitch can withstand constant use over the course of a year and as to whether the Super League can play its part in ensuring that the rugby club’s fixtures complement those of their football counterparts.

Ground-sharing in a small town makes economic sense. Let’s hope the frictions can be reduced by dealing with the key issues.

Winning with kids

Posted by JJ (Tony) in Reflections and tagged with , , , , , , , , , ,
Gary Caldwell continues to lower the average age of his squad.

Gary Caldwell continues to lower the average age of his squad.

“You can’t win anything with kids”.

So said Alan Hansen after a young Manchester United side had been beaten by Aston Villa. United’s lineup had featured an 18 year old Phil Neville, plus 20 year olds David Beckham, Nicky Butt and Paul Scholes, together with the 21 year old Ryan Giggs. They went on to win the Premier League that same season. Hansen’s comment became infamous in English football history.

As did Alex Ferguson twenty years ago, Gary Caldwell too has put a considerable amount of faith in young players. In fact three of them rank in the top four this season as far as appearances are concerned. That trio of Donervon Daniels, Reece James and Max Power are all 22 years old.

Over the January transfer Caldwell has continued to lower the average age of his squad. Don Cowie (32) and Grant Holt (34) left the club by mutual consent. In came Ryan Colclough (21), Conor McAleny (23), Sam Morsy (24) and Reece Wabara (24). Goalkeeper Dan Lavercombe (19) replaced Richard O’Donnell (27), although for the moment he is back at his previous club, Torquay. Midfielder Danny Whitehead (22) was also signed and loaned back to Macclesfield Town. Yanic Wildschut (24) was signed on a permanent contract following his loan spell from Middlesbrough.

Caldwell and his recruitment team have done a fine job, bringing in no less than 29 new players since summer. Moreover there are signs that the players are starting to gel and the team is starting to approach the point where the whole is at least the sum of its parts. Hopes for automatic promotion have been raised, although it remains a difficult task given the consistency of the teams above them.

Wabara has filled the problematic right wing back position, with Kevin McNaughton now back in training. A few weeks ago losing Michael Jacobs to injury would have left the team short of creative input. But the emergence of Haris Vuckic and the arrival of the confident and accomplished Colclough have helped allay concerns. Morsy has come in to add some steel to the midfield, potentially the replacement for David Perkins, who is now 33. The squad now has a better balance than it did a month ago.

Whether Latics will achieve automatic promotion remains to be seen. But with the talent at Caldwell’s disposal they will pose problems for any team in League 1. The least Latics are currently heading for is a place just below the top two, but  getting promotion through the playoffs is a precarious business where confrontations can be tight and so easily effected by unexpected events. The worst case scenario is at  least one more year in League 1.

Next season Latics will receive around £12 million in parachute payments, the final instalment. If they remain in League 1 they will be able to continue operating a budget three times higher than most clubs in the division. However, if promotion is achieved they will face fierce financial competition from Championship clubs, some boosted by much larger parachute payments, others buoyed by funding from benefactor owners. Moreover when their own parachute payments run out they will be faced with competing on an uneven keel against almost all the clubs in the division.

It is for these reasons that having a quality recruitment programme is key to the club’s long term future. Scouting for bargains in younger players coming from clubs in lower divisions or those released by big clubs will be the order of the day.

At the same time the club will need to be able to attract top teenage talent into its academy. Gregor Rioch came with a fine reputation in building up an academy at Coventry and he has already produced results at Wigan. The under 18 team breaking a club record by reaching the fifth round of the FA Youth Cup and taking Manchester City into extra time is an indicator of how much progress has been made. As in previous eras many of the youngsters recruited have come from the greater Manchester and Liverpool areas, often after being at a Premier League club. The recent loan moves of the 18 year old Adam Anson and the 19 year old Louis Robles, both previously in the Liverpool academy, to Macclesfield continue to show that the club seeks to toughen up the younger talent it is nurturing by sending them to clubs in physically competitive leagues. Sam Cosgrove, 18, previously at the Everton academy, has already had loan spells at Barrow and Chorley.

Over the years Alan Hansen might have come to rue his assertion that “You can’t win anything with kids”. But Premier League stats suggest that there is some degree of validity in his statement. When Manchester United won that title in 1995-96 they had six players under the age of 23 who played in 10 games or more. But nothing of the kind has happened since. In fact the average number of under 23s playing regularly in Premier League title winning squads over the last 20 years is less than three.

The success of Manchester United’s young players those two decades ago was clearly exceptional. But perhaps more importantly those players were to stay at the club, providing the backbone of the team for years to come.

Gary Caldwell will be hoping that this will prove the case for the majority of the young players he has recruited over recent months. He and his recruitment team are striving to build the backbone of a squad to serve the club for years to come.

 

 

Latics need a Wildschut for promotion

Posted by JJ (Tony) in Reflections and tagged with , , , , ,

 

It is midway through the League 1 season. The “New Era” duo of Gary Caldwell and David Sharpe has breathed new life into a club that was down on its knees. After a prolonged period of gloom and despondency there is light at the end of the tunnel.

With 23 games played, Wigan Athletic stand in 5th place with a record of W11 D7 L5. They are in the playoff zone, just 8 points away from an automatic promotion place. They have a good defensive record, with just 21 goals conceded, bettered only by the top two teams.

Caldwell has shown himself to be a dynamic young manager, excellent in recruitment, tactically aware. His is articulate and sets a dignified tone for the club when dealing with the media. Sharpe too has made a strong impression, his sheer enthusiasm for the club shining through. He too is articulate, adept in his dealings with the national and social media. Together the two have forged a positive new identity for a club that had lost its way, but is now firmly back on track under their leadership.

Caldwell has built up a strong squad, the envy of other managers in the division. It was by no means easy to put together a revamped squad containing more than twenty new faces. Caldwell and his coaches faced a huge task on the training ground, helping the players gel as a unit that can play a style of football that Sharpe labels “The Wigan Way”. Moreover Caldwell has instilled a never-say-die spirit that means his teams have shown the ability to claw their way back into games they would seemingly have lost.

The foundations are certainly in place. The immediate goal is promotion back to the Championship. In order to achieve automatic promotion a total of at least 90 points will be needed. That will require a points average in excess of two per game for the rest of the season.

A long unbeaten run is what Caldwell will seek. Latics achieved an unbeaten run of 11 matches, stretching from mid-September to late November until a blip led to league defeats by Burton and Blackpool, together with an exit from the Football League Trophy at the hands of Barnsley.

However, a couple of hard-fought away victories at Barnsley and Fleetwood have put them back on track. After disappointing away performances early in the season they are now unbeaten in their last eight league games on the road, as the players have shown the ability to grit their teeth and grind out results.

Caldwell and his recruitment team did so well in the last transfer window. But can they achieve such good results in the January window that is almost upon us? What adjustments can we expect to be made to the squad? Will the two remaining short-term loanees – Donald Love and Yanic Wildschut – be staying?

Since the beginning of the season four loanees have already returned to their clubs. Caldwell was disappointed when Jonjoe Kenny was called back to Everton in late September, then Shaq Coulthirst went back to Tottenham just over a month later. Over the past couple of weeks  Sean Murray has returned to Watford and Alex Revell to Cardiff City. Sadly the talented Francisco Junior has gone back to Everton to receive treatment on a troublesome groin injury that has hampered him during his time at Wigan. Caldwell will hope that the player can overcome the injury and that he can return before his loan period ends in mid-January. However, rumours suggesting Latics are close to signing midfielder Liam Kelly from Oldham suggest that Caldwell might be covering his bases in case the African does not make it.

The right back position has been a problem all season, with the serious injury to Kevin McNaughton early on and the departure of Kenny. Donervon Daniels has shown his versatility by playing there when needed. Tim Chow has also been tried there. Donald Love was signed on loan from Manchester United in early October. Injuries and call ups to the Scotland under-21 squad have limited Love to five starts and three substitute appearances. However, Caldwell clearly rates the 21 year old Rochdale lad and may well seek a permanent transfer.

Few players have made such a strong and immediate impression on Latics fans as Yanic Wildschut. His impact has rivalled that of Amr Zaki in 2008-09. Wildschut has started in ten games, coming on off the bench in six. He has scored four goals. In full flow Wildschut is a sight to behold, a winger with searing pace and a blistering shot when he cuts in from the left and shoots with his right.

Some would say Wildschut is a throwback to the past when the winger’s job was primarily to attack, although even in the days of 4-2-4 they were still expected to do some defensive duties. Defending is not Wildschut’s strong point, as noted by Middlesbrough manager Aitor Karanka. However, given the physical exertion he needs to put into his electrifying runs, can Caldwell really expect him to make a significant defensive contribution?

When Wildschut first arrived at Wigan he immediately caused panic in opposition defences. However, after a while other teams learned how to deal with him, if sometimes by foul means rather than fair. His recent performances in the starting lineup have been frustrating at times. However, bringing him on in the closing stages, when the opposition defenders legs are tiring, can have an explosive effect.

Although Caldwell has certainly bolstered his defence his team’s attacking can be slow and predictable. He needs a player with Wildschut’s explosive abilities who can upset the equilibrium of the opposition.

It is rumoured that negotiations with Middlesbrough over a permanent signing of the Dutchman have been going on for some time. Boro will surely want to recoup at least the £300,000 they paid Heerenveen for him in September 2014. Moreover other clubs might be in competition for his signing. At this stage it seems unlikely that Karanka will want him permanently back at Middlesbrough, given the “modern” type of footballer the Spaniard prefers. The question is whether Sharpe is willing to pay the kind of fee that Boro will demand for a player who is not a regular starter.

Caldwell will be hoping that a deal can be struck to keep Wildschut at Wigan. If that does not happen he is going to look elsewhere for the kind of player who can add such an extra dimension to Latics’ attack. Without such a player Wigan Athletic’s hopes for automatic promotion might well fall on the rocks.

Where will Latics finish?

Posted by JJ (Tony) in Reflections and tagged with ,

TableDec

After playing 21 games Wigan Athletic lie in 6th place in League 1 with a record of W9 D7 L5.

They have the 3rd best defensive record in the division, together with Bradford City, having conceded 20 goals.

But there are 9 clubs who have scored more than Wigan’s 29 goals up to this point.

Gary Caldwell is a young and inexperienced manager who has had a mountain of a task to deal with. His first managerial appointment was at a Wigan Athletic in free fall, where the team had acquired a losing mentality with morale close to rock-bottom.

His brief was to move on as many of the ex-Championship and Premier League players on his staff as he could, in order for the club to be able to balance its books month-to-month. He was also to make sure the club did not go into the red on the transfer market  through outgoing fees exceeding the incoming ones. Moreover his chairman made clear his hopes that Caldwell’s new team might smash the division with 100 points. The chairman also wanted the new team to play football in “The Wigan Way”, signifying a major transformation from the “direct” style that predominated in the reign of his predecessor.

Caldwell has taken all this on his shoulders with dignity. He is bright and eloquent and may well have a glittering career ahead of him in football management. Up to this point he has brought in 21 new players, with economic necessities indicating that there will be more turnover in January. His team has not played consistently well so far, but results have been good enough to reach the playoff zone.

Caldwell, like his chairman David Sharpe, is aware that Latics have a tight timeline for getting back into the Championship division. This is their penultimate season for the receipt of parachute payments. Should promotion not happen this season or next the club will find itself in the same financial boat as others in League 1. Moreover in the case of it happening next season rather than this, it would mean Latics going into a Championship division without parachute payments, competing against clubs that have that huge advantage over them.

It is not surprising therefore that Caldwell has stated his aim of achieving automatic promotion this season, rather than next. What are the chances of Caldwell’s team achieving his aim? Is League 1 the kind of division where a team can make a rapid ascent of the table in the second half of the season? Is it realistic to expect Latics to overhaul Burton Albion and/or Coventry in those top two positions?

At this stage last season (2014-15) Bristol City and MK Dons led the division:

tabledec202014

They were to hold those 1st and 2nd positions at the end of the season.  Moreover Preston, Swindon and Sheffield United were to hold their playoff places:

Table2013(2)

In 2013-14 Leyton Orient had been top in December:

TableDec2013But the London club eventually finished 3rd, losing out to 4th place Rotherham in the playoffs. Wolves, loaded with big parachute money and ex-Premier League players, ran away with the division in the second half of the season:

Table2014

Notably the top six clubs remained the same from December, even if some positions had changed.

In three of the past five seasons the top two teams at this time of year achieved automatic promotion at the end of the season. Leyton Orient had been overtaken in the top two by Brentford in 2013-14, but the gap between the two teams in December had only been one point. No team below 3rd place at the 21 game mark in December had achieved automatic promotion in those four seasons.

The exception was that of Bournemouth in 2012-13. In December they were lying in 9th place, with 32 points from 21 games. They were to finish in 2nd place, just a point behind Doncaster Rovers who had been in 2nd place after 21 games in December. The December leaders, Tranmere Rovers, had dropped to 11th place by the end of the season.

But how about promotion through the playoffs?

Last season it was 3rd placed Preston who won the playoff place. But interestingly for the previous four seasons it had been the team in 4th place that had won the playoffs.

Following an 11 game unbeaten run Caldwell’s team has not won for the last four. The expectations of the chairman and the fans weigh heavily on the manager. His squad is by far the most expensive in the division and they are expected to perform better. For a hard core of fans a failure to reach promotion this season would be a disaster. Others are more patient and will say that Caldwell needs more time to build a solid base that will not only serve Latics in the here and now, but in the long term.

The statistics over the past five seasons suggest that Latics are unlikely to achieve automatic promotion this year. Moreover there is statistically at best a one in four chance of them winning the playoffs.

However, Caldwell has a large and very able squad at his disposal, which is capable of defying the odds. He has repeatedly experimented, changing his lineups in efforts to try to get the best out of his players. What he rarely changes is the style of football.

Having been employed by his chairman to adapt the style of play from the ugliness of the Malky Mackay era, he has had to change the mindsets of so many players brought up on a more direct style. That remains a work in progress. The frustrations of constant backwards and sideways passing are frustrating to fans who crave for a faster tempo. In the days of Mackay a player under pressure would more often than not hoof the ball away, giving possession back to the opposition. In the Caldwell era they are more likely to retain possession, but too often to little effect.

The 32 year old Caldwell seeks to follow the example of Roberto Martinez who was appointed to his first managerial position at Swansea at the age of 33 in February 2007. Within 15 months Martinez had transformed the Swans style of play and they were League 1 champions by May 2008. He showed that it is possible to play skilful possession football in League 1 and be successful.

The task ahead of Caldwell is to have the whole at least equal the sum of its parts for his team. He will be aware that there are supporters who were never fans of the kind of football that Martinez’s teams played at Wigan. Moreover even the neutrals among the fans have been frustrated by then sterility of Latics’ play in recent matches. The running off the ball that is essential in possession football has been less evident and players on the ball have been unwilling to take risks, taking the easy way out with lateral or backwards passing.

Caldwell has lifted the gloom of the Mackay days and there are rays of hope for the future. His teams have shown a fierce determination to fight back when things have not been going well, something that last year’s outfits were unable to do. Although Caldwell’s teams can be criticised for failing to adjust their play in the bad weather conditions they have nevertheless shown their ability to grind out results. The draws at Bradford and Southend may not have been pretty to watch, but the determination was certainly evident.  However, the combined play of the team has not yet reached the heights one would expect given the talents of the squad as a whole.

But after 26 matches in all competitions up to this point, involving 31 players, the gelling process is not complete and players are still adjusting to Caldwell’s preferred style of play. Having a large squad can be seen as a significant advantage over other League 1 clubs, particularly as injuries come into play. However, the other side of the coin has been rotations of the starting lineup.

Doom and gloom continues to be bandied about on the message boards and social media. Some pundits are even suggesting Caldwell be dismissed,  despite his considerable achievements up to this point with Latics having a good squad of players, being only five points away from an automatic promotion place. Expecting instant results from Caldwell given the tasks that he has had to deal with is surely unrealistic.

If Caldwell can get his squad down to a size that will continue to give him a competitive advantage but alleviate the need for constant squad rotation, the gelling process will surely hasten. Given the range of players he has at his disposal he is unlikely to have a regular starting eleven. But certain players will form the backbone of the team, even if small adjustments are made from game to game.

But more than anything, Caldwell needs time. The question is how much time does he need for his team to gel into a promotion winning side.