Wigan Athletic vs. Stoke City: Are we Stoke’s bogey team?

As I sat down to write this — amid transfer deadline madness — I was struck by a re-assuring thought. The pressure is completely off us going into this deadline. The planning for Victor Moses’ departure began a long time ago and his move could not have been more swiftly put behind us. Whilst not replacing like for like, we have three very able strikers and a host of talented attacking midfielders competing for three berths. While a new body or two are always welcome, they are certainly not necessary and I imagine they would add depth and cover, rather than an immediate first team challenge. As has become a theme when reporting on the progress this club has made under Roberto Martinez and Dave Whelan’s partnership, there is simply no comparison to this time last year, when Charles N’Zogbia’s departure and Shaun Maloney and Albert Crusat’s adjustment periods totally derailed the team’s start to the season.

Indeed, in the two matches immediately following Vic’s departure, we have scored six goals — each from a different player, and each more emphatic than the last. We’ve had long range strikes, one-on-ones, headers from crosses, left foot, right foot, from all three strikers, two attacking midfielders and our left back. Victor who?

This should not be read as a wildly optimistic view on our chances against Stoke this weekend, but rather for the season and indeed seasons to come. Stoke are always a tricky proposition, and stakes always seem to be high when we play them. That said, our record against them in the Premier League is good, with our only loss coming away in 2009. In the other seven encounters, we’ve drawn five times and beaten them twice, including that victory to stay up two seasons ago. Statistics are on our side, just.

But it’s not all optimism from me today. I think we’ve been something of a bogey team for Stoke — and we’ve been lucky against them. Be it Ben Watson’s late penalty to equalize after Gary Caldwell’s sending off at The Britannia last year, or managing to keep the ball out of Al-Habsi’s net in the first half of the survival match Rodallega ultimately won for us, I think we’ve been riding our luck a bit against them. Logic says that luck will eventually turn, so I reserve a little concern for tomorrow’s clash.

This all said, we are showing the sort of form that doesn’t rely on luck. The cup win against Nottingham Forest carried on where the excellent away win at Southampton left off, underlining the strength in depth Roberto has at his disposal. There are few superstars in the lineup, but there is strong cover for every position, except goalkeeper.

Which means Antolin Alcaraz’s suspension, the lone negative from Tuesday’s cup tie, will be a much lesser problem than it would have been four months ago. We can expect a back three of Figueroa, Caldwell and Ramis (who by the end of the match will have played in all three centre-back positions in his first four matches for the club) — and the inclusion of now-fit Jean Beausejour at left wingback. Emmerson Boyce will likely return at right wingback despite Ronnie Stam’s strong performance mid-week. The Jimmy Macs will almost certainly reclaim the midfield with Maloney ahead of them. The big question is who will start in the attacking berths. Jordi Gomez’s performances this season have been of a high standard and he might be in with outside chance if Roberto feels conservative with his lineup. More likely is a repeat of the Southampton strikeforce, with Koné and Di Santo up front. But Mauro Boselli’s goal and performance had the manager raving, and it’s not outside the realm of possibility that he could be given the nod. If you haven’t already, check out our interview with the Argentine here.

Meanwhile, Stoke were booed off at half-time in the home cup loss to Swindon — who incidentally also knocked Latics out of the FA Cup last season. In the league, they drew away to newly promoted Reading and at home to Arsena, both respectable results, and have just signed Charlie Adam from Liverpool for 4 million pounds. Presumably he will take the set pieces they are always dangerous on, but we are unlikely to see much of the playmaking he showed at Blackpool in a team that likes to bypass that part of the pitch. Fellow new signing Michael Kightly has looked impressive for them and will be a threat.

An interesting one as always. With a trip to Old Trafford coming soon, a positive result in this one with be vital to keep the good feeling we’re enjoying at the moment.

Prediction: 2-1 Latics.

Wigan Athletic vs. Chelsea: Match Preview

Despite heartbreaking defeat in the club’s first ever Premier League fixture seven years ago, the prospect of another opening fixture against Chelsea only recalls positive memories. It was a sunny, exciting and historic day for all of us when the reigning champions — Mourinho’s Chelsea at the height of their powers — rolled into town. They were a bit like current-day Manchester City at the time, with huge investment by a foreign billionaire and a young, charismatic and shrewd operator at the helm.

The match itself was an exciting end-to-end encounter resolved at the death by an injury time wonder strike by Argentine striker Hernan Crespo, moments after Andreas Johansson might have won it for Wigan at the other end. Chelsea would go on to win the league once again while Wigan would finish an amazing 10th, still a record.

Times have changed, and there is irony to it. Chelsea are now European champions but far from the power they were in England back in 2005. They finished 25 points adrift of eventual champions Manchester City last season, and trailed them by the exact same number in goal difference. It speaks volumes that despite winning the most prestigious of club competitions, they have been busier in the transfer market than any of their direct rivals. Most of the investment has been in attacking flair players, a group of expensive and talented but largely unproven young players Victor Moses may soon join. One gets the sense that Roberto Di Matteo — who may turn out to be a very good manager — rode his luck last year after Villas-Boas’ departure and is about to face a more realistic test of his managerial abilities. All in all, they have the air of a club in transition.

In comparison… and not only with Chelsea but most of our direct competitors in the lower half of the table, we have a healthy stability and momentum on our side. The new signings (and Victor Moses’ potential/likely departure) will add an element of the same to our side on Saturday, though I tend to think Martinez will line up with a familiar XI. His preference has always been to ease new signings into the side as the season goes on unless he feels they are exceptional talents or play in must-fill vacancies. On those grounds, Koné might make an appearance on Sunday, but still probably from the bench.

James MacArthur has very unfortunately missed out on most of the pre-season through injury and is 50-50 to start alongside James McCarthy at the heart of the team. Shaun Maloney missed last year’s preparations but will be itching to start this year at the tip of the diamond. Jordi Gomez or Ben Watson should fill that third central midfield role, as much as Fraser Fyvie would love a chance at it. Surprisingly, Jordi has been used in a deeper role in the pre-season exercises and appears to be slightly ahead of Watson in the pecking order at the moment. But Roberto will have to remember who we are facing — the midfield pressing executed so excellently by the Jimmy Macs last season will need to be replicated to obtain a positive result this weekend.

At the back, it remains to be seen if Martinez opts for new signing Ivan Ramis or the excellent, though presumably fatigued Maynor Figueroa, who contributed as one of the over-age players in Honduras’ Olympic squad to keep clean sheets against talented semi-finalists Japan and pre-tournament favourites Spain at left back. Fitness is likely to be the determining factor, with captain Gary Caldwell being withdrawn during international friendly action earlier today (apparently after a shift in the holding midfield role — please leave us a comment if you watched it, with how he did).

Up front, it’s anyone’s guess. I suspect Moses may not be involved from the start just as Charles N’Zogbia wasn’t two seasons ago for not being “in the right frame of mind.” Funny to think that N’Zogbia, a far more polished player, was heading to Villa while Victor Moses, very much still a raw talent, might make the leap to Chelsea a year later.

See Jakarta Jack’s article for thoughts on the fantastic signing of Arouna Koné from Levante. He scored 15 goals in La Liga for Levante, another unfashionable side in one of the top leagues in the world, and has all the attributes to do well for us. But what does it mean for Di Santo, Boselli, and our general tactical shape?

Our guess is that Crusat may well start in place of Moses, with Di Santo up front but the starting XI largely resembles that which ended last season. We would support Martinez in resisting the urge to throw the new signings straight in. Stability and momentum are good. Give the players that achieved the impossible last Spring a chance to keep their places.

A draw would be an excellent start to the season. We shouldn’t kid ourselves — a gulf in quality remains and Chelsea have many match-winners in their side including a rejuvenated Fernando Torres. They are after all, the reigning champions of Europe.

Heart says: 2-1 Latics with a late header from Boselli or Kone.

Mind says: 1-1 Latics rally to equalize after conceding an early Chelsea goal.