Tag Archives: qpr

Can Wigan Athletic do it again? A survival analysis

Posted by Ned in News, Other, Reflections and tagged with , , , , , , , , , , ,

As Latics supporters, we’re used to being written off before a ball is kicked. Wigan will finally go down this year, we’re told every year. Yet somehow this fantastic little club clings to its Premier League status again and again — we’ve become survival specialists. It was no mean feat under Paul Jewell, an enthusiasm-fueled season like Norwich are enjoying at the moment. Or under Steve Bruce, when he totally revived a team of strugglers and misfits. But in the Martinez era, it has been achieved on half the budget, allowing the club to allocate funds toward youth development and long-term sustainability.

Indeed the worst case scenario, that of relegation, is a lot less worrying than it was three years ago. The squad is deep and young, with few big name players on heavy wage packets. Latics would probably lose three or four quality players — Rodallega, Diame, Moses, and perhaps James McCarthy — but would still have a very competent side capable of winning the Championship. As evidence, Callum McManaman, who can’t buy playing time with the current squad, starred during his loan stint at Blackpool, who are 4th in said league. Nouha Dicko, yet to feature for the first team at Wigan, scored on his debut for the Seasiders several days ago. Jordi Gomez was far and away voted the best player in the Championship last time he played in it.

All this said, incredibly — despite a cruel fixture list featuring the newly promoted teams in days 1, 2 and 3; a stretch of back-to-back games over Christmas against big four opposition; an 8-match losing steak; a (separate) 9-match winless streak — we’re not down yet.

In fact, we’ve hung in there just long enough that opportunity knocks, and real optimism is brewing. It’s tighter this year than last, when more teams got sucked into the battle. But this year it will take less points. We are essentially in a five-team relegation mini-league at the bottom of the table, cut adrift from the other 15 not only by 7 points but a gulf in quality. Aston Villa will not get relegated despite Alex McLeish’s best efforts, nor will Fulham, Stoke or West Brom. Three of them have too much quality, and the other has Roy Hodgson. The best bet for anyone else joining the party appeared to be a collapse in form from one of the newly promoted sides, but Swansea’s strength at home should keep them safe, while Norwich are already only about two wins away from safety.

So we’re looking at a mini-league between QPR, Blackburn, Wolves, Bolton and ourselves, with the top two surviving.

The Opposition:

Bolton were poor last Saturday, with no imagination going forward and a leaky defense that Victor Moses ran rings around. The loss of Gary Cahill only makes things worse for them. The decline of Kevin Davies, coupled with the departure of Johan Elmander, has stripped them of firepower.

Wolves have been looking pretty poor too, but are likely to benefit from the galvanizing effect a new manager, after Mick McCarthy was sacked. Potential replacement Alan Curbishley has been out of the game for a while but is a decent manager, Steve Bruce has rescued teams before and Wolves’ squad would certainly suit his style.

QPR, I suspect, will win the mini-league. They bought proven quality, and Mark Hughes is a good manager. It’s hard to see a team featuring experienced players like Sean Wright-Phillips, Bobby Zamora, Joey Barton, Luke Young, Djibril Cisse going down. Look at their squad. That said, they play the top six in their last 13 matches, so there is little margin for error.

Blackburn are a bizarre bunch. Steve Kean is out of his depth, but has somehow turned an ageing, injury-prone Everton striker into a goal machine, something Harry Redknapp also gambled on with immediate success at White Hart Lane with Louis Saha. Take away Yak or Pedersen, however, and Blackburn are in trouble. Hard to predict. The away fixture at Ewood Park looms large.

A Favorable Fixture List:

Of the 13 matches left, only four are games we probably can’t win — Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal away, and Man United at home. Any points here would be a huge bonus. Of the remaining eight fixtures, six are at home against teams we are good enough to beat: Aston Villa, Swansea, West Brom, Stoke, Newcastle, Wolves. Leaving just Norwich, Fulham and Blackburn away, tough matches but in the scheme of things not that daunting. The normal 40 point target looks difficult to achieve, but everyone’s point total in the bottom five is so low that I doubt any more than 35 will be necessary.

Villa (H), Swansea (H), Norwich (A), WBA (H), Liverpool (A), Stoke (H), Chelsea (A), Man Utd (H), Arsenal (A), Fulham (A), Newcastle (H), Blackburn (A), Wolves (H)

* Wigan and QPR play 7 home games; Blackburn, Bolton and Wolves only play 6 more at home.

* Wigan have by far the most favourable crucial last game of the season: Chelsea – Blackburn, Wigan – Wolves, Stoke – Bolton, Man City – QPR

* Assuming the following big six: Man Utd, Man City, Arsenal, Spurs, Chelsea and Liverpool — QPR has the worst fixtures, facing them all. Wolves and Blackburn play five of them. Wigan faces four of them,  Bolton only face three.

A Fit Squad, Raring to Go:

Martinez spoke last season of the importance of youth and fitness in the season run-in. Having struggled with injuries in the first half of the season, it appears the squad is fit and ready for the run-in. Key players such as Emmerson Boyce, Antolin Alcaraz, Hugo Rodallega all missed significant time earlier in the season but are now in the clear. Shaun Maloney recently completed 90 minutes for the reserves and was quoted as saying he is ready to push for a place in the first team. Competition in midfield is outstanding, with James McArthur staking his claim but Mo Diame returning from the African Cup of Nations, and Ben Watson — untouchable in the lineup this time last year — on the fringes. The bench against Bolton including Ronnie Stam, Albert Crusat, Mo Diame, Ben Watson, Dave Jones and Hugo Rodallega must rank as the strongest in the club’s history, and  people like Shaun Maloney, Hendry Thomas, Conor Sammon, Callum McManaman didn’t even dress. The only truly irreplaceable player is Ali Al-Habsi.

#keeptheFaith

Few people expected us to be within 2 points of 16th place at this stage of the season given the horrific form before Christmas and fixtures that followed. There is still a lot wrong with the team, in particular in front of goal. But with a bit of luck in the injury and suspensions department, continued improvement from Victor Moses’ final ball, and favourable results elsewhere, we might just live the dream once again. Here’s hoping…

Blind optimist? Spot on? Leave a comment.

Wigan Athletic vs. Queens Park Rangers Preview: Will Latics finally get the 3 points they deserve?

Posted by Ned in Match Previews and tagged with , , , , , , ,

Two matches, two posts, a crossbar, one goalkeeping mistake and a saved penalty. It’s not been the luckiest start to the season for the Latics, having drawn two games that probably should have been won. But the feeling in the camp remains positive. We keep hearing “at this point last year we’d lost our first two matches 4-0 and 6-0, so we are in a much better position this time around.” Which is true, but shouldn’t mask the fact that killing teams off is still difficult for the Latics. That said, there’s not much more they could have done to win at Swansea — sometimes your luck just isn’t in.

And so QPR is up next. If Wigan’s start to the season has been consistent, QPR’s has been far from it. After losing 4-0 to Bolton on home ground, they managed an unlikely three points against Everton at Goodison Park. And that was after a number of players from their starting lineup were made unavailable due to illness. So who knows what we’ll get tomorrow.

It’s been an interesting week in the transfer window. Joey Barton is apparently on the verge of joining QPR, which is a shame not only because he’s a nasty sod and I’m sick of watching him shout and bully, but also because he’s a good player who hurt us last year while playing for Newcastle.

Meanwhile, Latics have been linked with Vladimir Weiss, and Roberto confirmed that he is also still interested in Sean Wright-Phillips. The Weiss deal would likely be a season-long loan, the SWP an outright transfer. Both would be excellent signings, but I would be very surprised if the more experienced of the two doesn’t opt for Bolton (or QPR, who just entered the bidding) rather than us.

The Football: Antolin Alcaraz is out for two months, a huge blow. Steve Gohouri, his would-be replacement, is thought to be two weeks away from a return. Victor Moses is rated 50-50 after pulling up with a groin strain against Swansea and being forced to play the final 15 minutes due to all three substitutes being used already.

It seems likely Roberto will start this one with the defense that finished the match against Swansea, with Ronnie Stam slotting in at right-back, Boyce joining Caldwell in the center of defense, and Figueroa on the left. The midfield trio should remain the same unless McCarthy’s ankle injury hasn’t healed in which case James McArthur might get a chance. Given Moses’ fragility, I would guess Rodallega will be back in the starting lineup on the left, Gomez on the right, and Di Santo up top. I’d love to see Rodallega and Di Santo take turns, swapping back and forth from wing to center-forward position.

Ex-Wigan defender Fitz Hall will be at the heart of QPR’s defense. He looked a player of enormous potential in his time at Wigan, an incredible athlete prone to lapses of concentration, ala Bramble. Now 30, he looked very useful against Everton last week, but a little wobbly in the match against Bolton. Will be interesting to see how he does.

Could last week’s excellent performance be a turning point in Jordi Gomez’s career at Wigan? If Moses misses out, Latics will need another strong performance from him, drifting in from the wing, making runs into the box, and finishing coolly as he almost did against Swansea.

It’s another tricky one to predict, particularly not knowing if Victor Moses will be in the side. Based on QPR’s ability to hold onto their lead at Everton, and their capitulation versus Bolton, I’d say first team to score will win. I think Latics will do the job this time.