Category Archives: Specials

A visit to Brentford and a look at a disastrous season

Posted by JJ (Tony) in Match Previews, Specials and tagged with , , , , , ,

With the final game of the season coming up at Brentford on Saturday, Billy Grant  (@billythebee99) of beesotted.co.uk asked us to respond to some topical questions. The article is also posted on the Beesotted site.

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When we touched base for the first time this season around the time of the Forshaw saga, we had no idea our season would end up like this. We (and the world) thought we would be battling against relegation and you thought we would be battling for promotion with Uwe Rosler making his much awaited return to Griffin Park. Where did it all go topsy turvey?

Things had already started to go awry by the time that Brentford visited in mid-October. Just over a week later, with only three victories in seventeen league games, Rosler was shown the door. It was a sad end to an era in which the German had enjoyed a meteoric rise to fame. The previous season he had taken over a team in 14th place and got them into the playoffs, only to be narrowly beaten by QPR. Moreover the stunning win at the Etihad against the to-be Premier League champions in the FA Cup sixth round would stick in the memory for years to come. So would the semifinal, taking Arsenal to a penalty shootout.

Sadly things had gone pear-shaped for Rosler in the second half of his reign. The rot had set in towards the end of the 2013-14 season. The confidence that had been generated through a long string of good results had started to wane. Then over summer Rosler was to lose class performers in Jean Beausejour and Jordi Gomez, but the biggest blow was the departure of James McArthur on the transfer deadline day.

The new season had seen the team coming back from pre-season training in Germany in poor physical shape, with second half collapses being the order of the day. Moreover Rosler had made nine new signings since the summer, all in need of a settling-in period. But their arrival had swelled the first team squad to over thirty, the end result being Rosler having to deal with disgruntled players not getting a regular game.

Sadly Rosler could not inculcate his vision into his players. As time wore on it appeared that he and the players had become  more and more out of tune in terms of what should be delivered on the pitch. As the new season wore on we were to see less and less of the commitment required for the high tempo, high pressing football he sought.

By November the dream of getting back into the Premier League had become almost unreal. It looked like it was not going to happen this season with Rosler. Dave Whelan stepped in, relieving the German of his job, bringing in Malky Mackay, stating his belief that the Scot was the right man to take the club back to the Premier League.

Little did we know what depths the team would plumage towards under Mackay. His appointment did great damage to the club’s image as portrayed by the national media. Moreover the team did not rise on the bounce effect of a new manager, as is so often the case. In fact they got worse. They did not win a single home game during his tenure and he will go into Wigan Athletic history as their least successful manager.

When Mackay had taken over he had stuck by an “old guard” who had been underperforming under Rosler. Neither did they perform well under him. The result was no less than thirteen players dispatched out of the club in the January window. Given the departure of so many players who had proved themselves in the Premier League it was no surprise that the standard of football was to plummet close to rock bottom. The hoofball that had become evident under Coyle, which Rosler could not eradicate, soon became the order of the day under Mackay.

The conspiracy theorists say that Mackay was brought in as a short-term alternative, with his main task being to cull the dead wood within the playing staff. It could be said that he did that. Perhaps some of the players from the Martinez era had become complacent and were causing divisions within the camp.But the cull, together with a reluctance to provide Mackay with sufficient cash to find adequate replacements, left the club so short of quality players that relegation was always going to be a possibility. Mackay was to replace the departed players with those on short term contracts or young loanees green behind the ears. It was a recipe for disaster.

So many fans are relieved that Mackay will not be at the club next year, even if it is in League 1. But it should not hide the lack of foresight and decisiveness by new chairman, Sharpe, who left it too late in dismissing him.

Give us your thoughts on Brentford’s season

Many of us were shocked by the decision to not continue with Mark Warburton. I wonder if he had come to Wigan with Rosler we might have been promoted by now, rather than relegated.

Warburton deserves commendation for what he has done since he took over as manager. He has stuck to his guns by insisting that the team play good football and their quality has surprised others in the division. To be within reach of a playoff spot on the last day of the season is some achievement.

Whoever follows Warburton is on a hiding to nothing. You have to hope that Benham will make the right appointment. Whelan made a major blunder at Wigan by appointing the “long ball” Coyle following the departure of “tiki taka” Martinez. You need to appoint a manager who will build on what is established, rather than one who will destroy it.

There was an enormous who-ha over Wigan’s poaching of Adam Forshaw at the start of the season. He gave his reason for leaving being he wanted to move to a ‘bigger club’ and to one that was ‘challenging for promotion’. A bit cheeky. Would you admit, looking at how the season has panned out, Forshaw made the wrong move? He was a key player for us and has become a bit player since his move.

Rosler was building for the future by signing a handful of younger players. Andy Delort, Adam Forshaw, Emyr Huws, Aaron Taylor-Sinclair and James Tavernier were brought in. All were stars at their clubs last season and they are still good players. Sadly they were dragged into a situation where even experienced and capable pros, such as Ivan Ramis, Shaun Maloney and Leon Barnett, had been struggling to impose themselves on the field of play. Sadly those young players were mismanaged, first by Rosler then by Mackay.

Forshaw’s transfer had hit the headlines because of the bad feeling it created between the clubs. From the player’s point of view he was rejoining the manager who had nurtured him to the point of becoming League 1 Player of the Year. He was also joining a club that had a squad good enough to challenge for promotion, which would offer him a more lucrative contract.

Like those other young players Forshaw was never able to truly establish himself. He made 13 starts, with three appearances off the bench, scoring one goal.

Talking of Forshaw, his agent played him a big BIG get-out-of-jail card. Out of the blue he got him a move to promotion-chasing Middlesbrough after staring relegation in the face. At one stage, he looked destined for the Premier League with them but now has to settle for the playoffs. Assuming we don’t make the playoffs, do you think Forshaw will be a Premier League player next season?

Ben Watson’s agent did even better. Since leaving for Watford in January he has been a regular in a side that is already promoted. Forshaw has been largely used as a substitute by Middlesbrough, making only five starts.

Forshaw had been part of the January cull, with the club cutting their potential losses for the season by selling players off for whatever transfer money they could get and freeing others on lucrative contracts. So many fans had been disenchanted by the lack of performance by the squad that Mackay did not meet the opposition one would have expected when selling off the family silver. But there were fans who thought the departures of young players with potential was worrying.

Aitor Karanka has done a good job at Middlesbrough. They can play attractive football and will have as much chance as any other team in the playoffs. We learned last year what a lottery the playoffs can be. Should Boro get promoted they are going to have to bring in a lot of new players as their squad is not anywhere near Premier League standard.

Forshaw still has not established as a regular starter in the Championship, but he does have potential and maybe the Premier League environment would suit him?

For a while Latics fans were a bit disenchanted with Brentford over the Forshaw saga, but most of us will wish the Bees well in the quest for promotion. You have an outside chance of getting into the playoff zone, then a one in four chance of winning the playoffs. But the likelihood is that Derby will win at home to Reading on Saturday. If they do then I will fancy their playoff chances. Despite poor recent form their squad is probably the best outside the top two.

The Rotherham result in midweek has consigned you to Division 1. Despite our little ding dong earlier this season, most Brentford fans would actually prefer you stayed up. We had a good day out at Wigan much preferring it to our trips to places like Bolton and Millwall to be quite honest. How do you think you will get on next season???

Wigan is a friendly town and away fans seem to enjoy their visits. I went to Millwall for the first time a couple of weeks ago and can understand why your fans are not keen.

Dave Whelan is now 78 and after 20 years of guiding the club he has stepped back. He made a mistake with the Malky Mackay appointment and his inappropriate comments were gobbled up by the national media. It has sadly tarnished the image of a man who has done more for Wigan Athletic than anyone before.

When all this was going on the club seemed to have no direction and leadership. But now Latics have a new chairman and a new manager, both young and hungry for success. The 23 year old David Sharpe wisely opted for a manager who believes in playing football the “Wigan way”. Moreover his expectation is that Gary Caldwell – only 32 years old – will stay in the position long-term.

Next season is a great unknown for us. There will be another mass exodus over summer as the club sheds its highest wage earners and rebuilds. Sharpe has already stated his goal of promotion next season, but most of us realise that this might not happen so quickly. A large number of new players will be coming in and it is going to take time for them to gel and learn to play football with the style that Caldwell expects.

With the youngest manager and youngest chairman in the four divisions at the helm there is renewed optimism at Wigan. The era of Whelan has gone, but an exciting new one is about to commence.

Do you think you players will turn up at the weekend?

More than half of the players who made the starting lineup against Wolves last weekend are on short-term contracts which finish next month. Many of the remainder are likely to be leaving in summer. Will this motley crew give their commitment on Saturday?

Nevertheless Caldwell will expect them to give their all and many might want to impress possible future employers. Moreover there is no pressure on them to get a result.

Given such a scenario who knows what will happen? It could be a surprise victory for Latics or a hammering.

My guess is that it will be a 1-1 draw.

 

 

Gary Caldwell – the right man for the job

Posted by JJ (Tony) in Specials and tagged with , ,

 

In February 2007 the 33 year old Roberto Martinez gave up his playing career to take over from Kenny Jackett as manager of Swansea City. Despite his lack of experience Martinez’ appointment was viewed favourably by the majority of the fans. He had left Swansea for Chester the previous summer after falling out of favour with Jackett. Martinez had spent three years with the Swans as a player, captaining them to League Two promotion 2005, also lifting the LDV Vans Trophy and the FAW Premier Cup twice.

David Sharpe’s bold move in appointing the 32 year old Gary Caldwell as manager bears a strong parallel to those events at Swansea. Caldwell was an outstanding captain and the club’s Player of the Season in 2011-12 when Latics miraculously escaped relegation by winning seven of their last nine Premier League games, beating Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United in the process. His play always epitomized one hundred percent effort, with a never say die attitude. Moreover Caldwell was the general on the field of play who cajoled his teammates into following the manager’s game plan.

Sadly Caldwell’s career at Latics was dogged by a serious hip problem. Despite signing a new contract as a player-coach this season Caldwell has not been able to play. According to an article in the Scotsman last month Caldwell admitted that he had been struggling for years with the hip problem and that even training had become painful. There is little doubt that Caldwell had been putting his body on the line on numerous occasions for Latics when not fully fit. At times he made calamitous errors, incurring the wrath of the fans, but few could doubt his commitment on the field of play and the way he marshalled his teammates into playing out of their skins against some of the world’s top footballers.

For so many months the club seemed to have no direction and leadership. But within a short amount of time Latics have a new chairman and a new manager, both young and hungry for success. Sharpe has wisely opted for a manager who believes in playing football the “Wigan way”. Moreover his expectation is that Caldwell will stay in the position long-term.

Caldwell’s first task will be to get a good result at Fulham on Friday. It will be interesting to see if he opts for the 3-4-3 formation that Roberto Martinez used to great effect. Moreover will some players be brought back who were out of favour with Mackay?

The doom and gloom at Wigan Athletic has suddenly been lifted. Even if relegation happens there is now light at the end of the tunnel. Who knows what a dynamic young duo of Sharpe and Caldwell might achieve?

The period of drifting is over. Wigan Athletic are now heading down a firm track.

Mackay sacking – a month too late.

Posted by JJ (Tony) in Specials and tagged with , , ,
Sharpe

David Sharpe announced Malky Mackay’s departure tonight.

 

What a sad day.

The loss to Derby County puts Latics with practically no chance of avoiding the drop. The thought of relegation is hard to bear but what is even more depressing is that the two Davids – Sharpe and Whelan – did not remove Mackay at least a month ago. The lack of vision and decisiveness from above is worrying.

Less than 18 months ago Owen Coyle exited Wigan Athletic as a much derided figure. By coincidence his last game in charge had been a home loss to Derby. Coyle was sacked because it looked like he could not get Latics into the playoff zone. Moreover the stylish, if not always successful, football of the previous era had lapsed towards ‘hoofball’.

Uwe Rosler came in and enjoyed considerable success in his first season. His services were dispensed of when it looked like he was losing player support and failing in the quest to make Latics a serious candidate for promotion.

Little did we know what depths the team would plumage towards under his successor. Mackay’s appointment did great damage to the club’s image as portrayed by the national media. Moreover the team did not rise on the bounce effect of a new manager, as is so often the case. In fact they got worse. They did not win a single home game during his tenure and he might well go into Wigan Athletic history as their least successful manager.

When Mackay took over he stuck by an “old guard” who had clearly been underperforming under Rosler. Neither did they perform well under him. His revenge was sweet, with no less than thirteen players dispatched out of the club in the January window. Given the departure of so many players who had proved themselves in the Premier League it was no surprise that the standard of football was to plummet close to rock bottom. The hoofball that had become evident under Coyle, which Rosler could not eradicate, soon became the order of the day under Mackay.

Mackay’s tactics involved having two big strikers who could fight for those long balls. The most successful at retrieving those long balls was Marc-Antoine Fortune. Without him Latics seemed lost. With him they had a player adept at chasing seemingly lost causes and gaining possession. They also had a striker with an appalling goalscoring record. Forwards of lesser physical stature, such as Billy Mckay and Martyn Waghorn, were never going to be included in Mackay’s system, despite their proven career record as goalscorers.

The conspiracy theorists will say that Mackay was brought in as a short-term alternative, with his main task being to cull the dead wood within the playing staff. It could be said that he did that. Perhaps some of the players from the Martinez era had become complacent and were causing divisions within the camp. But the cull, together with a reluctance to provide Mackay with sufficient cash to find adequate replacements, left the club so short of quality players that relegation was always going to be a possibility.

Mackay was to replace the departed players with those on short term contracts or young loanees green behind the ears. It was a recipe for disaster.

So many fans will be relieved that Mackay will not be at the club next year, even if it is in League 1. But it should not hide the lack of foresight and decisiveness by Sharpe who has surely left it too late for hope of salvation in the Championship division.

It is to be hoped that Sharpe will also take a look at the coaching staff. Too many players have been written off this season despite arriving at the club with good credentials. There has been a disconnect between recruiting and coaching. The former has taken the brunt of criticism and Sharpe has enunciated his reorganisation of recruitment services. In the meantime it defies belief that the coaches could not have done more with so many of those new signings.

The challenge for Sharpe is to emulate his grandfather in appointing a manager capable of lifting the club out of this trough. Moreover lovers of good football will hope that he does not go for someone of the ilk of Coyle or Mackay. Between the two of them they caused so much damage.

It is to be hoped that the departure of Mackay will lead to a successful new era for the club.

Much of that will depend on Sharpe’s vision and leadership. It is a lot to expect from such a man so young.

The stats of goalscoring at Latics

Posted by JJ (Tony) in Specials and tagged with , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

“One of our forward-thinking players is going to have to stick the ball into the back of the net and that’s the key to it.”

So said Malky Mackay after the Leeds match where Latics had 60% of possession and 19 efforts on goal without scoring.

But in these days of increased use of data in football, did Mackay bear in mind the stats when picking his starting strikers? Has he looked at the performance records of the players he has at his disposal?

Goalscoring stats can be misleading. So often they are quoted as appearances per goal, which can be so unfair on a player largely used as an impact substitute. How can we compare the record of a player coming on in the 85th minute with one who has played the full 90? When we calculate a stat of appearances per goal we should also take into account at the ratio of starts to substitute appearances to get a true picture of player performance. Perhaps a more reliable indicator is starts per goal, but what about a player like Callum McManaman who would rarely complete the full 90 minutes?

However, these stats together can help us get a picture of the player’s goalscoring capabilities. Moreover looking at the player’s past performance stats can give us an overview on their current performance.

Compiling stats is dependent on a reliable source. The data that follows was compiled using player performance information from www.soccerbase.com . It is based on appearances in league and cup.

Looking at the main strikers currently available to Mackay:

Goals1

The raw stats suggest that Mackay chose the two players with the least probability of scoring against Leeds, Marc-Antoine Fortune and James McClean. However, until his recent conversion to central striker McClean has been on the left wing, where it is harder to score goals, so the stats should be interpreted carefully. The career stats suggest that the pairing with the most likelihood of scoring goals is that of Leon Clarke and Billy Mckay.

The more senior Latics supporters will remember the lethal goalscoring partnership of Harry Lyon and Bert Llewellyn. From 1965-68 Llewellyn scored 96 goals in 115 appearances for Wigan. Lyon remains the club’s leading all-time goalscorer with 273 to his name in his stay from 1962-70.

More recently the most memorable pairing is probably that of Nathan Ellington and Jason Roberts, whose stats show that each of them needed only just over two starts per goal.

In the Premier League days the partnership of Emile Heskey and Amr Zaki was one the best. Heskey was never a natural goalscorer but he created the space for Zaki. The result was the Egyptian scoring 11 goals in 24 starts.

In the Premier League era, Henri Camara was Wigan’s most consistent goalscorer. Taking a look at the stats of strikers who have now left Latics gives considerable insight:

GOALSOLD

The case of Nouha Dicko stands out. Deemed not wanted by the club, but his goalscoring record for Wolves has been outstanding. Dicko never started in a league game for Latics.

The sad stays of such as Conor Sammon and Jason Scotland are reflected in the difference between their Latics stats and those of their careers. The simple explanation would be that they were not good enough for the Premier League. But then again, is Dicko good enough for the Championship?

Andy Delort and Oriol Riera are back to scoring goals again in their home countries following frustrating stays at Wigan. Given the downsizing at the club, even if the miracle happens and relegation is avoided, it is unlikely they will return.

Mackay is now talking about solving his goalscoring problem through the loan market. This must feel like a kick in the teeth for such players as Billy Mckay and Martyn Waghorn who have shown in the past that they have the ability to be in the right place at the right time as far as goalscoring is concerned.

The coaching and management at the club continues to ostracise players. It has been far too apparent over the past couple of years that HR skills are sorely lacking.

Mark Twain once said “Facts are more stubborn things, but statistics are pliable”. As outsiders we are not privy to the real facts about what is happening at the club during the Mackay era. But pliable as statistics might be there is no getting away from the woeful record the Scot has had since he took over.

In a season where Latics have scored only 32 goals in 36 league games, one begins to wonder where the next goal will come from. It is a sad result of the mismanagement of the striking talent that the club has had and continues to squander.

Investing in Wigan Athletic –what comes next?

Posted by JJ (Tony) in Specials and tagged with , , ,

dave whelan espn

I read a quip the other day that amused me.

It is relatively easy to take out £1m by being the owner of a football club. All you have to do is first put in £2m.

Dave Whelan reportedly put £100 m into underpinning Wigan Athletic’s success over these past two decades. One wonders what he will get back.

Football clubs are probably the worst run businesses to invest in. So few make a profit because of mismanagement within and the pressure on clubs to spend to keep up with others. So many are kept afloat by their owners and benefactors.

According to Sir John Madejski, Reading chairman, the ideal football club owner is “someone with deep pockets, mercurial, and not faint-hearted.”

That could well describe Whelan over these years. His generosity to his home town club has been exceptional. Through converting debt to equity he has effectively given the club financial stability.

The case of Bolton Wanderers differs. They currently owe Eddie Davies over £165 m. Davies, now 67 years old, made his money out of thermostats for kettles and moved out of Bolton in his twenties. When he bought the club in 2004 fans expressed concern that they were now owned by an Isle of Man tax exile via a trust listed in Bermuda.

Davies has not actually given the money to the club, but has provided loans on which they have had to pay interest payments every year. The last time Wanderers made a profit was in 2006 and even that was close to breakeven. Put simply they have been living beyond their means for so long and if Davies were to pull the plug the very existence of the club would be at severe risk. Today’s Daily Telegraph reveals that Davies would be willing to sell the club, should he right buyer come along. But is any potential buyer going to be willing to takeover so much debt?

Dave Whelan’s silence over the past couple of months has caused unease among so many Wigan Athletic supporters. We had become so reliant on him to provide the financial backing needed for the club to make forward strides. However, over the past four years he has insisted on the club at least breaking even financially. The profits made over the past three seasons have made Latics a beacon among the dark and shady world of mismanagement typical at so many football clubs. Breaking even this season will be more of a challenge, but the selling off of assets and the reduction in liabilities that happened during the January transfer window will surely put things back on track.

The apathy by which fans have witnessed the selling off of many of the most accomplished players can be viewed as a sign that people are beginning to lower their expectations for Wigan Athletic Football Club. The notice boards and social media are awash with comments amounting to something like the club being bigger than just one man and that it can be run with dignity in the lower divisions. As always there are the cynics who suggest Whelan is pocketing profits, getting some money back after so many years of putting it in.

One thing we can expect over these coming weeks is for Whelan to step down as chairman. It remains to be seen if his grandson, David Sharpe, will take over the role.

The big question is whether the Whelan family will continue to pull the strings at the club in the long-term, or whether the house is being put in order for a sell off.

Should the Whelan dynasty continue we can expect the club to continue to be run on a breakeven basis.  After all could any of us reasonably expect the Whelans to pour in more funds in the hope of restoring past glories?

However, for a business to be run on even a breakeven basis there needs to be some kind of strategic plan. This would involve the fashioning of a new identity for the club that fits its current situation.

Gone is the romantic idea of “Little Wigan” holding its own in the world’s most wealthy football division. In its place needs to come a more grassroots identity, a club noted for its coaching and development of players who can be sold on in a systematic basis rather than the awful fire sale we have recently witnessed. The club as a finder of raw talent that it hones into a lustrous product that it cashes in on to keep itself moving forward.

The alternative is to stand still, which tends to inevitably lead to dropping back.

A key strategic issue that needs to be addressed is the development of an academy at Charnock Richard. Apart from the capital costs, which can be covered by incoming transfer dealings over the past year, will it be a moot point because of the operating costs it entails?

However, the probability is that Latics will be in League 1 next year. The FFP rules differ significantly there from those of the Championship division. Clubs are only allowed to spend up to 60% of their revenue on player salaries. Moreover standing costs for the club will need to be thinned down proportionate to the drop in revenue. Should that be done effectively it would surely leave some wiggle room for an academy which would cost around £2m to operate.

The starting lineup that faced Cardiff City on Tuesday night included only three players with contracts that go beyond this summer. The likelihood is that few of those short term signings or loanees have a future at the club. Moreover should relegation become reality Latics are going to have to shed not only those at the ends of their contracts, but a significant number of the players who were signed on contracts that could be considered lucrative by Championship standards.

When Wolves were in a similar situation in the summer of 2013 they released seven players, sold two and sent seven more out on loan. By the end of the season they had done seventeen loan deals of their players out to other clubs, They brought in three new players over the summer, with another five coming in January, including Leon Clarke and Nouha Dicko. They had only two incoming loans, both short-term in the first half of the season.

The key for Wolves turned out to be the appointment of manager Kenny Jackett, who remains in charge as they sit in eighth place in the Championship table. It remains to be seen whether Malky Mackay would be entrusted to try to follow Jackett’s lead should Latics get relegated.

Many fans are nervous about the possibility of the club being sold. Even if Latics are in League 1 next year the club will be a possible target for purchase. Through its successes, particularly in the past decade, the Wigan Athletic “brand” has gained considerable prestige. Moreover the club is close to being debt free. The fan base might pale in comparison with big city clubs, but has grown so much over these years. The club has a fine stadium and has bought a potentially excellent site for a youth academy.

Fears of the club being taken over by a foreign owner may be justified to some degree. However, with a new owner willing to invest in the club like Whelan did before, Latics would have a competitive edge compared with an austerity-laden approach that might operate under a Whelan dynasty regime.

Put simply, were Latics to be relegated they would have to compete with at least half a dozen ex-Premier League clubs in League 1. What would give them any kind of competitive advantage over those clubs and others in the division?

Without Whelan’s financial backing Latics would not have achieved what they did over the past twenty years. Without an owner willing to invest significant funds into the club it is going to considerably lower the odds of them getting remotely back to where they were three years ago.

Where Wigan Athletic will be ten years from now is impossible to predict – Premier League or Northern Premier League?

No matter who owns the club it will need to refine its vision and direction.

Without that it will meander into mediocrity.