After 59 games, Latics’ season is now starting

Rosler4

“It’s a strange scenario that, after 59 games, our season really starts now.”

So said Uwe Rosler in the Alan Brazil Breakfast Show yesterday.

Dave Whelan might well agree. Getting back to the Premier League is clearly his number one priority. Preferably this season, rather than next.

A month or two back ago Rosler was quoted as saying that he wanted to be the first German manager in the Premier League. We saw it as a statement of ambition – to get Latics back to the top flight of English football, as well as a personal goal for someone who had started his football career in communist East Germany. However, the personal goal was to dissolve when Felix Magath took over at Fulham.

When Rosler was appointed in December few could have hoped for more than the German steadying a rocking boat and preparing Wigan Athletic for promotion the following season. Latics had drifted under Owen Coyle and there seemed to be little sense of direction. Rosler was seen as someone with a more clearly defined philosophy, who could put the club back on the rails.

Rosler has done so much more than that. His first match in charge saw Latics’ European dream sadly ended, largely due to a dubious refereeing decision that saw Chris McCann sent off in Slovenia. But rather than have a long run in the Europa League, it was to be in the FA Cup, reaching semi-final and being unlucky to lose on penalties. Moreover Rosler has secured a playoff place that looked practically out of reach when he was appointed.

Rosler manipulated the transfer window shrewdly, offloading high wage earner and under-performer Grant Holt to Aston Villa, whilst bringing in a swath of loan signings to strengthen his squad. When he signed Martyn Waghorn on loan from Leicester, the cynics questioned his move. Since then the Geordie has become a key component of his set-up, not only excellent in the high pressing that Rosler demands from his forwards, but scoring 5 goals and providing 6 assists to date. Waghorn has a good technique, a good temperament and is a team player. He epitomises the profile of the kind of player Rosler wants at Wigan. Rosler has rewarded him with a long term contract.

Latics’ rise into the playoffs has come at a physical cost to key players. Emmerson Boyce has played 54 games so far, James McArthur 50, Leon Barnett 49, and James Perch 48. Not surprisingly they have not been at their best in recent games. The question is whether they can get a second wind for the playoffs.

Playing such a large number of games in a short amount of time over these past months is one thing, but the high pressing puts heavy physical demands on the players too. At their best, Latics defend from the front in a manner that even the master of that technique, Pep Guardiola, would approve. At the worst, the pressing is uneven and Latics are pushed back into their own half as the opposition retains possession.

Wigan Athletic’s chances of getting back to the Premier League are going to depend largely on their ability to high press their opponents and disrupt their style of play. That high energy approach was easier to implement a couple of months ago when the players had not accumulated so many games.

The final league game at Blackburn tomorrow is the 60th this season. Perhaps Rosler was slightly off the mark by saying that the season was starting after 59 games. Unless he views tomorrow’s confrontation as more important than most of us think. Is he keen to get a result at Blackburn so Latics can face QPR next week, rather than the more in-form Derby, who have won their last five matches?

However, previous form can mean nothing in the pressurised climate of the playoffs. Last year’s winners Crystal Palace only had one win in their final ten league games but got the results when it really counted, defeating both 4th placed Brighton and 3rd placed Watford.

Rosler faces the challenge of rousing a tired group of players for a final push. However, he does have Gary Caldwell, Roger Espinoza and Shaun Maloney back from long term injuries.

They might well have a crucial role to play.

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Rosler planning route back to Wembley

 

Uwe Rosler got the result he needed last night when Latics ground out a 1-0 win at Birmingham. He can now focus on the route back to Wembley for the playoff final on May 24th.

Next week Latics are due to play the first leg of the first phase of the playoffs at the DW Stadium. They will entertain either Derby County on Thursday or Queens Park Rangers on Friday, depending on whether they eventually finish 5th or 6th.

Although Latics have limped to secure that playoff spot Uwe Rosler deserves great credit for getting them there. When he took over in mid-December they were in 15th place and had lost their preceding five matches. Moreover he took them to an FA Cup semi -final too.

Latics have looked jaded over recent matches, particularly the key players who played too many matches game over these weeks. Rosler has to rest them for Saturday’s final league match away at Blackburn. A draw or win at Blackburn will guarantee Latics 5th place and a confrontation with QPR. Whether they can get a result with a weakened team remains to be seen.

Both Derby and QPR are fine footballing sides with experienced and capable managers in Steve McClaren and Harry Redknapp. Rosler will have to get his tactics right, no matter which of the two Latics meet.

Last night Rosler played with a backline of three central defenders, with Gary Caldwell returning triumphantly. Both he and Rob Kiernan were preferred to the out of sorts Leon Barnett. That central defensive trio of Boyce, Caldwell and Kiernan could well line up in the first playoff game next week. Ivan Ramis is getting close to resuming training, but it might be a gamble to put him in, probably in place of Kiernan. Jean Beausejour is clearly at his best at left wing back, with James Perch operating on the other side.

None of Josh McEachran, James McClean and Nick Powell appeared in the nominated eighteen last night and one wonders if they will be in Rosler’s plans for what remains of the season. Lots of rumours have been flying around the social media, but there has been nothing from the club.

Rosler’s Latics team have shown the kind of determination to grind out results that will serve them well in the playoffs. From mid-February towards the end of March they went on an unbeaten run of 10 matches, where the football was not always pretty but it was certainly effective. High pressing was a key feature of that run.

Neither McClaren nor Redknapp will be keen to face Latics in the playoffs. They are likely to meet a Wigan team founded on a solid and experienced defence, but with potential match winners in Callum McManaman and Shaun Maloney further forward.

Another trip to Wembley is a distinct possibility.

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Latics can win their next penalty shootout

Penalty

Can one single incident define a club’s season?

Blackpool fans might well cite Matt Gilks’ superb save from Martyn Waghorn’s penalty on Saturday as the event that saved them from relegation. Latics had been well on top in that first 20 minutes and if they had scored the Tangerines might well have fallen apart. Waghorn did not hit his penalty badly, but the goalkeeper guessed right and made a spectacular save.

Latics have been awarded 7 penalties in the Championship this season, of which they have scored 4, each taken by a different player. Grant Holt, Shaun Maloney, Ben Watson and Jordi Gomez were the successful scorers. Gomez has had two penalties saved, against Yeovil and Bolton. The opposition have converted 5 out of the 8 penalties they have received.

It was a surprise to many of us when Waghorn took the penalty against Blackpool. Despite his 1 in 3 conversion rate in the league this season, Gomez has a 100% record in cup competitions. He scored one in the Europa League and two famous ones – at the Etihad and Wembley – in the FA Cup. Having scored Latics’ last penalty in the pressure cauldron of an FA Cup semi-final it was expected that Gomez would take the spot kick against Blackpool. Moreover they also had Shaun Maloney who had previously been successful in converting penalties. Waghorn did have previous success as a penalty taker, scoring 2 out of 2 for Leicester City, but it was in the 2009-10 season. He had not taken penalties in competitive football since then.

The fateful penalty shoot-out in that Wembley semi-final continues to haunt Latics fans. If the likes of Holt, Maloney, Watson and even Waghorn had been at hand to join Gomez at the time, maybe Latics would have had a chance of beating Arsenal. But looking at the available players on the pitch at the time there was not much hope for optimism even before the kicks had started.

Should Latics reach a stage in the playoffs where penalties are going to decide the result are they going to be competitive? Uwe Rosler will surely bear this in mind with the players he has on the pitch in a game going into extra time. He will surely find time for his players to get ample penalty kick practice before the event.

Since the formation of the Premier League in 1992 the average conversion rate for penalties has been 85%. Less than 4% were missed, just over 11% saved.

During their eight seasons there Wigan Athletic received 28 penalties, of which they scored 22, a conversion rate of 79%. Ben Watson and Amr Zaki were Latics’ leading goalscorers through penalties, each scoring four. However, Watson also missed two, unlike the Egyptian who missed none and remains Latics most successful penalty taker in top flight competition. There were only two seasons when Latics received more penalties than they conceded, those being in the Steve Bruce era 2007-09. For the full stats see myfootballfacts.com

Of the current squad, in league and cup games, Maloney has converted 2 out of 2. Gomez has scored 7 out of 10, Watson 6 out of 9.

Gary Caldwell was the first to have a penalty saved at Wembley, but later stated that he had taken penalties before, even in the Champions League. The second taker was Jack Collison, whose shot was also saved. However, Collison had been successful earlier on in the season, scoring for West Ham in the 94th minute in a League Cup tie at Burnley.

Collison would not usually have a chance to take a penalty for the Hammers, as Mark Noble would usually take them. Noble has scored every penalty he has taken since 2009. Leighton Baines shares a similar record. However, Rickie Lambert has gone even better by scoring every single one of his 31 penalties in competitive matches for Southampton. Matt Le Tissier remains the most outstanding penalty taker in top flight English football in recent years, having missed only one of his 49 penalties.

Research into penalty shootouts in the World Cups, European Championship and Copa America reveals a success rate of around 87% for the first kick, 82% for the second, 79% for the third, 73% for the fourth and 80% for the fifth. See penaltyshootouts.co.uk for more details.

Clubs typically get an average of around four penalties in regular play per season and they are often taken by the same player. That is certainly the case for QPR, who have had exactly four, all converted by Charlie Austin.

However, the cases of other playoff contenders, Derby and Reading, differ. Referees have awarded Derby 11 penalties, of which they converted 7, but they have conceded only 2. They have used three penalty takers in Bryson, Martin and Russell. Reading have converted 7 of their 9 penalties, whereas the opposition have scored all 6 conceded. The Royals have used four penalty takers in Blackman, Le Fondre, Pogrebnyak and the unfortunate Sharp who missed his penalty against Latics.

Should Wigan Athletic get into a penalty shootout over the coming weeks it could well define their season. If Latics confirm their place in the playoffs then Rosler will surely give his players lots of practice at taking penalty kicks.

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Garcia ready to step in for Latics

Juan Carlos Garcia (left) ready to step in for Latics.

When Juan Carlos Garcia was signed last summer it looked like he was going to be the natural successor for Maynor Figueroa.

Like ‘Figgy’ he was an experienced Honduran international, in his mid-twenties, who had come from Honduras’ top club – Olimpia of Tegucigalpa – with the ambition of being successful in England. He was to be another in the line of Honduran footballers at Wigan following in the steps of Wilson Palacios, Hendry Thomas, Figueroa and Roger Espinoza. Garcia got himself known on a world stage in February 2013 through a spectacular goal for his country in a World Cup qualifier against the USA, assisted by Figueroa.

Like Figueroa, Garcia is a left back who can also play in the centre of defence. The left back position has been problematic for Latics this season. Stephen Crainey played there at the beginning of the season, to be replaced by James Perch. That gave Latics more defensive solidity, but Perch was limited in attacking skills, playing on his ‘wrong side’. At times Owen Coyle would draft in Jean Beausejour at left back. The arrival of Uwe Rosler saw the Chilean being used more in that position, with Crainey rotated in as a wing back when Latics played with a line of three central defenders.

After six years at Blackpool, Crainey struggled to adapt to his new playing environment in the first half of the season. Being played at wing back relieved some of the defensive pressure on him and he started to grow in confidence.

Beausejour’s preferred position is wing back. Ironically when Latics have played with three central defenders it has been, more often than not, Crainey who has been played at left wing back. Apart from the occasional game on the left wing Beausejour has been played largely at left back, not his best position.

In the last two games the left hand side of Latics defence has looked vulnerable. At Burnley it was Crainey partnering Leon Barnett on the left, then it was Beausejour against Blackpool.

Rosler might well choose to revert to a 3-5-2 formation for the remaining two league games, bringing in Rob Kiernan as an extra centre back. However, if he opts to go for a flat back four he could do worse than put in Garcia at left back.

Figueroa made 148 appearances over five seasons for Latics and has been badly missed this season at left back. However, when he first arrived in January 2008 he had to wait months before making his debut as a substitute three months later. His first start was in the last match of the 2007-08 season facing Cristiano Ronaldo.

Garcia did not have to wait quite so long, making his debut in Latics’ 5-0 League Cup debacle at Manchester City in late September. Coyle played him in a wide position in left midfield. Since then he has had some injury problems, but has overcome them, making regular appearances for the development squad.

Will Garcia get his second chance before the season ends?

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Rosler getting ready for QPR in the playoffs

QPR Manager Harry Redknapp will be expecting a difficult encounter

QPR manager Harry Redknapp can expect a difficult encounter with Wigan Athletic in the playoffs.

Barring major surprises, Wigan Athletic will host Queens Park Rangers on Friday, May 9th in the Championship playoffs. The return match at Loftus Road will take place the following Monday, May 12th. Both games will start at 7:45 pm.

Latics need only one win from their final three leagues matches to make certain of their playoff place. QPR are six points ahead of Wigan and are likely to finish in fourth place. Reading are three points behind, but Latics have a game in hand over the Royals and a superior goal difference. Derby are five points ahead of QPR with a far superior goal difference. They will surely pick up one point from their last two games to guarantee a third place position where they will be up against the sixth placed team, which could be one of a handful of clubs.

The past months have been a rollercoaster ride for Wigan Athletic. Since Uwe Rosler’s first game in charge away to Maribor on December 12th until the last one at Burnley, Latics played 31 matches in 129 days. During that time they lost a Europa League game and won four and drew two in the FA Cup, losing to a penalty shoot-out. In the league their record has been W13 D6 L5, giving them 45 points from 24 played, very close to Rosler’s often stated target of an average of two points per game.

Latics had suffered five consecutive defeats before Rosler’s arrival and his team has played more games since then than any other team in the four divisions. To get so close to another FA Cup Final and to be sitting in a healthy position in the playoff zone of the Championship is a testament to the remarkable effect Rosler has had on the club.

With so many matches coming up Rosler acted shrewdly in the January transfer window, offloading the misfiring Grant Holt to Aston Villa and Nouha Dicko to Wolves. In their place he brought in a handful of loan players plus another on a short term contract. He tried to transfer out the highly salaried Ivan Ramis, but neither Cardiff nor Crystal Palace were satisfied with his medical condition. Ramis has since been excellent in the centre of defence and a key player in Latics’ push for promotion. He has had further injury problems – currently out through a hamstring strain – but no recurrence of the knee injury that prevented his transfer.

The loanees have clearly played a major role since their arrival, some more than others. At this stage it looks like only one will be staying – Martyn Waghorn who has since signed a long term contract. However, the loanees will continue to have a part to play as the regular season moves into the playoffs.

Rosler will be keen to secure that playoff place on Saturday with a victory over a Blackpool side struggling against relegation. He would then be in a position to rest his key players before the playoffs start. The key triumvirate of Emmerson Boyce, James McArthur and James Perch looked jaded on Monday and Rosler needs them to be at their sharpest in the playoffs.

Wigan’s recent form has been inconsistent over recent weeks, with the highs of beating such as Manchester City contrasting with the lows of losing at home to relegation candidates like Millwall. However, it is in the playoffs that they need to peak. Were Wigan to beat Blackpool this weekend and lose their remaining two league matches it would be of little consequence. Indeed we would probably see more than a little “rotation” for those games.

Rosler will be keen to have all his key players firing on all cylinders during the playoffs.

Nick Powell has been disappointing since his return from injury, but Rosler will surely continue to keep the Manchester United player in his plans. One moment of individual brilliance from him could be sufficient to win a vital playoff game. Media hype about the young man’s future cannot be helping, let alone the uncertainty of who will be in charge at Old Trafford next season. Powell remains young and his game lacks maturity, but he could play a key role in the playoffs.

The promising return of Shaun Maloney from long-term injury and the improved form of Callum McManaman give Latics much room for optimism. Moreover Jordi Gomez has been playing the best football in his five years at the club. Latics might lack a regular goalscorer but they are strong in terms of having players with creative and attacking flair.

James McClean has had a disappointing time over recent weeks, but could still make an impact in the playoffs. When he scored two opportunist goals at Ipswich he looked sharp and confident, but since then his finishing has so often disappointed. The Irishman is clearly a confidence player who needs a run of games before the end of the regular season. His pace can threaten any defence and he can never be faulted for effort. He is a rough diamond who Rosler needs to continue to work with. It could well be that playing on the wing is not ultimately his best position. With his pace, energy and tackling ability he could well develop into a holding midfield player or full back.

The return of Roger Espinoza from a hernia operation is good news for Rosler. The German will have to ease the Honduran back in gradually, but he is the obvious partner for the admirable James McArthur in central midfield. Josh McEachran is a fine player, but has lacked fitness since his arrival and has not even been on the bench in the last two games. Rosler needs him fit for the playoffs.

Rosler will be hoping that Ramis will be back to fitness for the playoffs. He has played particularly well alongside Boyce in the centre of defence. With the two together there is not only defensive solidity, but cultured passing from the back. The German might well go for a back line of three central defenders with Leon Barnett joining them. He also has Rob Kiernan available, who has done a good job so far, but lacks the experience of playing in the high pressure atmosphere the playoffs will generate.

James Perch has become an automatic choice in Rosler’s lineups and deservedly so. Too often in his career he has had to play in a variety of positions, but under Rosler he has established himself as a right back or right wing back. Perch’s defensive work is excellent and his attacking has improved considerably over these months.

Jean Beausejour is best employed as a wing back, but has also been employed as a full back and a winger under Rosler. He remains the best alternative on the left of defence.

Rosler is blessed in the goalkeeping department with Ali Al-Habsi and Scott Carson competing for a place. Exciting young prospect Lee Nicholls will have to bide his time for the moment with those two capable and experienced ‘keepers ahead of him.

The first step towards potential success in the playoffs is to beat Blackpool on Saturday. Rosler will surely field his strongest lineup. With the playoff place secured he can then rest his key players and focus on what promise to be two tricky games against a strong QPR side.

Rosler has done so well up to this point. He has the players capable of taking Latics back to the Premier League and he has shown himself to be tactically astute.

QPR will not relish the prospect of facing Wigan Athletic in a little over two weeks’ time.

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