Wigan Athletic vs. Swansea City: Moment of truth

It’s business time at the DW, as Latics kick off the survival run-in with a must-win fixture against Roberto’s old flame, Swansea City.

The reverse fixture in Wales back in August was an interesting 0-0 draw in which Latics were twice denied by the post, either side of a Ben Watson penalty miss. Had any of those gone in, Latics would be sitting above the relegation zone in 17th.

The Welsh team has enjoyed a fine season, claiming a few famous scalps and impressing with their (extremely familiar) passing style of football. Liberty Stadium has been a real fortress for them, achieving a 5W, 6D, 2L record there. Away results, however — 2W, 3D, 8L — are a bit more encouraging.

Logic says we should be able to go one better and beat them on our own ground, but Wigan Athletic’s seasons often defy logic. Our away record is three times 0ur home record, when it comes to winning. The last time it happened at the DW was in August, though we’ve certainly come close — a lot.

Last weekend was one of those occasions, as Villa took a point home with them despite being bombarded by 14 corners, the most I can remember us getting against anyone. One suspects tomorrow’s match will be a lot more open. It’ll be interesting to see how the cut-up pitch affects two teams who like the ball on the ground. Lets hope the weather cooperates.

In team news, just about everyone should be fit although Antolin Alcaraz and Maynor Figueroa both had long journeys back after 90 minutes for Paraguay and Honduras respectively. James McArthur and Gary Caldwell played the full 90 for Scotland as well, with the Latics captain sustaining a gash to his ankle requiring stitches. Victor Moses made a 30-minute debut for Nigeria, while Momo Diame played an hour for Senegal. Ali Al-Habsi kept a clean sheet for Oman, who are on course for World Cup qualification — while James McCarthy did not feature for Ireland.

It’s hard to guess whether Martinez will tweak his XI. Many of us would like to see Momo Diame back in the team, but with James McArthur in excellent form and James McCarthy fresh having not played in midweek, it’s hard to see either being dropped. Jordi Gomez would be another candidate, but he was quite effective against Swansea in the previous match and will be itching to play against his former club. Ronnie Stam has been unlucky to lose his place to Emmerson Boyce and could return, although the defensive insurance Boyce provides may be considered a higher priority in the first half. If the lineup were to remain unchanged, second half attacking options such as Rodallega, Diame, Stam and Crusat look very strong. Swansea has a near-full squad to choose from.

Keep an eye out for:

Andre Marriner, who makes his return to the DW for the first time since the ludicrous piece of refereeing (0:47 seconds into the video) that lost Latics two points against Blackburn. One would expect him to treat Latics kindly after essentially gifting Blackburn a goal.

Prediction:

There’s just no other way to see this one, we have to win. But I’m sure it will not be without drama. It’s 2-1 to Wigan Athletic.

Man City vs. Wigan preview: Man City £354,000,000 – Wigan Athletic £26,500,000

A decent return of five points from three tricky opening fixtures, a positive defensive record of only one goal received, and a very successful transfer window have given Latics fans a lot of hope for the season. Unfortunately, the two trips no one wants at the moment are to the Manchester stadiums, and Eastlands is next for Roberto’s men. Manchester City’s last outing saw them humiliate Tottenham 5-1 at White Hart Lane, in what must be the London club’s heaviest home defeat in its Premier League history. New signings Aguero and Nasri appear to have turned City into genuine title-contenders — their squad is frightening, and on paper probably as strong as any other in the league. In transfer outlays, it’s probably twice as strong as the next closest.

I’m tempted to say there is nothing to lose in this one. No one expects Wigan to get a point, nevermind three. But as we learnt away to United last year, red cards to key players and high scoring losses are both things that can haunt you for the rest of the season.

The hope is that Steve Gohouri will have recovered from his groin strain to replace the uncomfortable Adrian Lopez in the centre of defense. I can’t see Lopez keeping Dzeko, Aguero, Tevez, Silva and company (not Vincent) quiet all game. There again, it’s hard to picture many centre-backs doing that, and perhaps Lopez will be more comfortable marshalling more cultured strikers than he was with the two big battering rams he’s faced so far, Grant Holt and Patrick Agyemang. Fingers crossed, but if Martinez made such a huge gamble on Alcaraz’s fitness against Swansea, he can’t have that much faith in his younger compatriot.

We’ll also be hoping Victor Moses and James McCarthy have recovered from their knocks and strains to be at their best. Judging by Roberto’s comments about the new trio, and in particular Shaun Maloney, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him play some sort of role in this match. Probably best to wait for a lighter match to give Crusat his debut, and certainly no need to blood the Chelsea youngster Van Aanholt as long as Figueroa is fit. I wouldn’t be surprised if Wigan start with the same eleven as against QPR (minus Gohouri, if fit), but add Maloney for Gomez or Di Santo in the second half.

The optimist in me says City will grossly underestimate us and we can go one better on last year’s excellent performance, to snatch a point. The realist says City are just too strong and the best we can hope for is a good defensive effort to keep the score low and morale high. Either way, a look at the arithmetic below makes it all feel better.

Manchester City (transfer fees, in British pounds) total, before wages, sign-on bonuses, etc:  354 million pounds

Hart: 1.5 million
Zabaleta: 6.5 million
Kompany: 6 million
Lescott: 22 million
Clichy: 7 million
Toure Yaya: 24 million
Barry: 12 million
Silva:  25 million
Nasri: 25 million
Agüero: 35 million
Dzeko: 27 million

Subs:
Pantilimon: on loan
Richards: product of youth system
Milner: 26 million
Johnson: 7 million
Savic: 6 million
Tevez: 40 million
Balotelli: 24 million

Not used:
Kolo Toure: 16 million
Bridge: 10 million
De Jong: 18 million
Kolarov: 16 million

Wigan Athletic (transfer fees, in British pounds) total, before wages, sign-on bonuses, etc:  26.5 million pounds.

Al-Habsi: 4 million
Boyce: 1 million
Caldwell: 0.5 million
Lopez: free agent
Figueroa: undisclosed, but thought to be less than 1 million
Watson: 2 million
Diame: 3 million
Jordi Gomez: 1.7 million
Moses: 2.5 million
Rodallega: 4.5 million
Di Santo: 2 million

Subs:
Kirkland: undisclosed, possibly free
Stam; 2million
McArthur: 0.5 million
Thomas: undisclosed, estimated at 1 million
Jones: free
McCarthy: 1.2 million
Sammon: 0.6 million

Not Used:
Alcaraz: free, out of contract
Gohouri: free, out of contract
McManaman, product of youth system